fusion

were estimated using the Riemann-
LaRouche economic model, which is
designed to quantify such nonlinear
progressions.
The essential role of nuclear power
in overcoming present constraints
on Third World development was
stressed by other conference speakers,
including Professor W. Seifritz of
the Eidgenossisches Institut fiir Reaktorforschung
in Wurenlingen, Switzerland.
Seifritz, a leading European
spokesman for nuclear power, presented
detailed arguments showing
that only a "brute force" development
of nuclear energy can provide
sufficient resources to feed the expanded
global population by 2020.
Another conference participant,
K.D. Malaviya, former Indian minister
for petroleum and chemicals, affirmed
that "Our Atomic Energy
Commission is aiming at the installation
of 10 gigawatts of nuclear power
capacity by the end of the century.
My case is that India must produce 50
gigawatts of energy by the end of the
century." Malaviya, a close collaborator
of Jawaharlal Nehru, is known as
the father of India's oil industry.
Other speakers stressed the need
for Western European participation in
the development of the southern
hemisphere. "Our problem today in
both developed and developing
countries is the monetarists and their
agencies like the International Monetary
Fund," bluntly asserted K. Raghunath
Reddy, India's former minister
of state for industrial development.
"Liberation of mankind from poverty
and suffering, want and sorrow,
is within the reach of man. Both technology
and world resources can provide
abundance. What is wanting is
the political will." (See box for excerpts
of Reddy's speech.)
Ganesh Shukla, editor of the Indian
weekly New Wave, pointed to increasing
famine, epidemic disease,
and social chaos in the Third World
as "flashpoints" for East-West military
confrontation.
The Frankfurt conference followed
an April 29 seminar in Paris and April
23 seminars in Milan and Washington,
D.C. on the subject of Indian development.
—Susan Johnson
AIAA Annual Meeting, Baltimore, May 6-8
The Aerospace Industry:
Technology or Geopolitics
Top executives and engineers in the
aerospace industry attending the annual
meeting of the American Institute
of Aeronautics and Astronautics
in Baltimore May 6-8 heard a very
mixed set of presentations under the
theme "Global Technology 2000." European
speakers, in particular, discussed
the challenges in space exploration,
flight, and military technology
the industry will face over the next 20
years. By contrast, others at the conference,
led by British spokesmen,
termed new technology entirely inappropriate
for the coming period's
"geopolitics."
Reinhardt Abraham, an executive
with Deutsche Lufthansa airlines in
West Germany, focused on the future
of air transportation. Reviewing the
drop in aircraft orders since 1973,
Abraham indicated that $60 billion
would be needed in capital investment
in the industry worldwide in the
next decade, vectored for new technology
that could extend the lifetime
and productivity of air transport vehicles.
"There may be acute fuel shortages
and rising prices," he acknowledged,
but the industry must "prepare to
solve the fuel problem with advanced
technology." New developments—
"radical concepts"—are needed in
engine design and the aerodynamics
of plane design, he said.
The second speaker on the program
was Dr. Reimer Lust, president of the
Max Planck Institute in Germany, who
stressed the importance of cooperation
between Europe and the United
States. The United States, he recalled,
had helped form the European space
research organization in the mid-
1960s. "In general," he said, "scientific
discoveries are unpredictable,"
but nevertheless must be the essential
consideration of the industry.
In the next 20 years, "we will do
plasma experiments in situ, we will
extend our knowledge in astronomy
Lord Chalfont: "There should be less
technology."
and astrophysics, study the earth's and
planets' atmospheres, and study geodesy
and geophysics." He proposed
that U.S.-European collaboration concentrate
on an orbiting telescope, the
exploration of outer space, and continued
earth-oriented observation
from space.
"Europe has a future highly dependent
on technological innovation,"
Lust stated. "This is very good
for international cooperation. . . ."
The change in tone was abrupt,
however, for Lord Chalfont's speech,
titled "Defense Systems: An Allied
Perspective." Every U.S. aerospace
company that is involved in commercial
aircraft production and the space
program is also involved in weaponsrelated
production. However, few
present shared Lord Chalfont's "geopolitical"
perspective for the industry.
Chalfont began by stating that what
he was about to say was his personal
view and not necessarily that of the
British government; on the other
hand, as if to caution them that they
had better listen closely, he reminded
the audience that he is, after all, a
76 FUSION August 1980