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The Ukrainian Weekly 1994

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2 THE UKRAINIAN WEEKLY SUNDAY, JUNE 26,<strong>1994</strong> No. 26<br />

ANALYSIS^^^^^^^^<br />

Systemic crisis in Ukraine<br />

and scenarios of development<br />

by Dr. viadimir Zviglyanich<br />

CONCLUSION<br />

<strong>The</strong> crisis in Ukraine is manifested<br />

also in the diminished amount of infor–<br />

mation available. <strong>The</strong> broadcasts of<br />

<strong>Ukrainian</strong> ТУ were reduced in December<br />

to six hours on weekdays, and the<br />

Parliament voted 239 to 6 in November<br />

to halt the live broadcasts of plenary ses–<br />

sions of the legislature. This was unani–<br />

mously estimated by the democratic<br />

opposition as an attempt of the "party of<br />

power" and its mouthpiece - President<br />

Kravchuk - to win the election at any<br />

price and deprive the opposition of any<br />

access to the media.<br />

On December 8, 1993, 19 staffers of<br />

the popular youth ТУ program "Hart"<br />

(Strength) were fired for a rather mild<br />

assertion that censorship is in force on<br />

state-owned ТУ and that it is used<br />

against opposition.<br />

<strong>The</strong> programs of <strong>Ukrainian</strong> ТУ are<br />

considered boring, thus making Russian<br />

programs more popular. Despite the dras–<br />

tic reduction of subscriptions to Russian<br />

publications, Russian newspapers are<br />

leading in popularity and are in big<br />

demand in the Crimea and the Luhanske<br />

and Donetske regions.<br />

<strong>The</strong> development of a party system in<br />

Ukraine is seriously undermined by the<br />

general apathy of the population, and by<br />

the fact that the majority of the leadership<br />

of new parties is recruited from<br />

Galicia and thus cannot represent the<br />

views of the majority of people. <strong>The</strong><br />

majority of representative organs of most<br />

political parties are concentrated in<br />

Galicia and central Ukraine, leaving<br />

southern and northern Ukraine and the<br />

Crimea without contact with parties of<br />

democratic orientation.<br />

<strong>The</strong> popularity of parties in these<br />

regions is close to zero. This fact played a<br />

role in the development of the political<br />

crisis in the second half of 1993. After<br />

President Kravchuk and the Parliament<br />

refused to conduct a referendum on popu–<br />

lar trust of the Parliament and President,<br />

the MPs made a bigger concession to publie<br />

opinion by declaring early parliamen–<br />

tary and presidential elections. This deci–<br />

sion was made shortly after the dissolution<br />

of the Russian Parliament in Moscow in<br />

October.<br />

Conducting the election on the party<br />

lists principle could have stimulated the<br />

development of a multi-party system, but<br />

in Ukraine this decision would have led to<br />

reinforcement of Galicia's representatives<br />

in the organs of state power. <strong>The</strong>refore, the<br />

majority of the <strong>Ukrainian</strong> MPs voted for<br />

the majoritarian system, which is benefi–<br />

cial for both the old and new nomenklatu–<br />

ra. This undermines any possible influence<br />

of the representatives from western<br />

Ukraine, consequently hindering the devel–<br />

opment of a multi-party system. <strong>The</strong> deci–<br />

sion of the Parliament reflects the deep cri–<br />

sis in relations between the central bureau–<br />

cracy and the moderate nationalistic forces<br />

of Galicia, which began in early 1993.<br />

President Kravchuk backed this deci–<br />

sion after some hesitation, saying he was<br />

motivated by the desire not to let the<br />

"demagogues" be re-elected to the<br />

viadimir Zviglyanich, Ph.D., senior<br />

research fellow at the institute of<br />

Philosophy, <strong>Ukrainian</strong> Academy of<br />

Sciences, is adjunct professor of East<br />

European area studies at George<br />

Washington University.<br />

Parliament, in reality this was to under–<br />

mine the positions of Rukh and its leader.<br />

Recently, in an attempt to distract peo–<br />

ple's attention from the deepening eco–<br />

nomic crisis, President Kravchuk and<br />

Parliamentary Speaker ivan Pliushch had<br />

started to back the idea of conducting a<br />

referendum about the nature of political<br />

system in Ukraine (presidential or parlia–<br />

mentary) to coincide with the election in<br />

March. <strong>The</strong> question of the essence of<br />

the political regime in Ukraine and its<br />

reformist (or counter-reformist) stance<br />

cannot be decided until the election of<br />

the new Parliament and president. But<br />

the forthcoming regrouping of political<br />

forces in Ukraine in the spring-summer<br />

of <strong>1994</strong> does not indicate that the politi–<br />

cal crisis which was determined by the<br />

economic collapse will be taken off the<br />

agenda now or in the future.<br />

<strong>The</strong>re are several reasons for this.<br />

First, the economic crisis in Ukraine is<br />

continuing and growing. <strong>The</strong>re is no<br />

hope for the rapid improvement of the<br />

economic and financial situation before<br />

the election. Now the real average wages<br />

in Ukraine are four to five times smaller<br />

than in Russia. Changes "at the top" may<br />

be too late to save the situation "at the<br />

bottom."<br />

Second, whatever changes do happen,<br />

the hew elite will be compelled to deal<br />

with the old and ultraconservative<br />

bureaucracy that is capable of blocking<br />

any (even the most progressive) reform<br />

initiative. <strong>The</strong> <strong>Ukrainian</strong> authorities<br />

naively thought that they could build a<br />

market economy with the cadres molded<br />

by the Gosplan system. This fact reduces<br />

chances for radical economic reform in<br />

Ukraine. <strong>The</strong>re is no significant middle<br />

class or "new bourgeoisie" to push the<br />

authorities in the direction of creating a<br />

new generation of bureaucrats to repre–<br />

sent and defend their interests.<br />

<strong>The</strong>re is the possibility of a crisis situ–<br />

ation in <strong>Ukrainian</strong> politics, it is possible<br />

that the position of the army could<br />

become a decisive factor in the further<br />

development of Ukraine. Meanwhile, the<br />

<strong>Ukrainian</strong> press reveals many facts about<br />

the demoralization of the army, lack of<br />

discipline, bribes, and the embezzlement<br />

of state property and arms. <strong>The</strong> military<br />

prosecutor of Ukraine has stated during<br />

the first year of existence of the<br />

<strong>Ukrainian</strong> Navy, the highest command<br />

stole enough diesel fuel to operate a large<br />

detachment of vessels for a year, in gen–<br />

eral the position of the military, taking<br />

into account the enigmatic resignation of<br />

former Defense Minister Kostiantyn<br />

Morozov and his replacement by the pro-<br />

Moscow-oriented Укаїіу Radetsky, is<br />

hardly predictable.<br />

<strong>The</strong> possible aggravation of the politi–<br />

cal situation, accompanied by a rapidly<br />

growing economic crisis, will take the<br />

shape of a regional confrontation. <strong>The</strong>re<br />

are two tendencies in Ukraine now. <strong>The</strong><br />

first one is the conflict between the<br />

regions and Kyyiv. <strong>The</strong> second reflects<br />

the conflict between the eastern and west–<br />

ern Ukraine. Several regions (such as the<br />

Crimea) now are openly agitating for sep–<br />

aration from the central authorities.<br />

Presidential elections in the Crimea<br />

are produced a pro-Russian and pro-sepa–<br />

ratist president and Parliament, which<br />

have caused a new round of tensions<br />

between Kyyiv and Simferopil, as well as<br />

between Kyyiv and Moscow. This may<br />

also cause a "domino" effect in the eastcontinued<br />

on page 22)<br />

Who's ahead Depends on the poll Ukraine's Chornobyl nuclear power<br />

plant, site in 1986 of the world's worst<br />

JERSEY C1TY, N.J. - various opin– nuclear accident. Two months ago the<br />

ion polls conducted in Ukraine just days Clinton administration thought it had an<br />

before the June 26 presidential elections agreement in principle with Ukraine<br />

show differing figures on who is ahead in<br />

whereby the plant would be closed. Now<br />

the race. A Kyyiv-Mohyla Academy poll<br />

it appears Ukraine will not shut down the<br />

says the incumbent Leonid Kravchuk is<br />

plant and will in fact proceed with<br />

leading Leonid Kuchma, 29 percent to 23<br />

restarting a third reactor at the damaged<br />

percent. However, the <strong>Ukrainian</strong><br />

plant (two of the plant's four reactors are<br />

Barometer Center polls has Mr. Kuchma<br />

now on line). Ukraine has insisted that it<br />

leading with the numbers reversed. Both<br />

must be compensated for the 1,700<br />

polls do agree that the other five candi–<br />

megawatts of energy produced by<br />

dates are trailing far behind. <strong>The</strong><br />

Chornobyl. Germany and France favor a<br />

<strong>Ukrainian</strong> Barometer Center says<br />

plan that would help Ukraine complete<br />

yolodymyr Lanovy has 8 percent of<br />

construction of safer WER nuclear<br />

prospective voters' support; ivan<br />

power plants, but U.S. officials say that<br />

Pliushch has 3 percent; Уаіегіу Babych,<br />

is like "going from worst to bad," wrote<br />

2.5 percent; and Petro Talanchuk, less<br />

Douglas Jehl. Administration officials<br />

than half a percent. Missing from the<br />

are hoping to come up with a strategy in<br />

report was any mention of the seventh<br />

time for the G-7 summit in July. (<strong>The</strong><br />

candidate in the race, Oleksander Moroz.<br />

New York Times)<br />

(United Press international, RFE7RL<br />

Daily Report)<br />

Joint oil corporation is proposed<br />

FB1 director is Ukraine bound<br />

WASHINGTON - <strong>The</strong> director of<br />

the Federal Bureau of investigation,<br />

Louis Freeh and other high-level U.S.<br />

law enforcement officials will be visiting<br />

Ukraine and other Central and Eastern<br />

European countries. <strong>The</strong>ir purpose,<br />

according to Mr. Freeh, is to develop<br />

cooperative plans for combating "grave<br />

and growing crimes problems." <strong>The</strong> top–<br />

ics to be covered are to include drug traf–<br />

ficking by organized crimes and coordi–<br />

nated crime-fighting efforts between U.S.<br />

agencies and their counterparts in Eastern<br />

and Central Europe. <strong>The</strong> delegation is to<br />

visit Ukraine on July 2. (United Press<br />

international)<br />

Miller meets with Masol<br />

KYYiy — Ukraine's new prime min–<br />

ister, yitaliy Masol, met with U.S.<br />

Ambassador William Miller on the lat–<br />

ter's request. <strong>The</strong> two men focused on<br />

<strong>Ukrainian</strong>-American relations in terms of<br />

economic cooperation and the realization<br />

of economic aid packages for Ukraine.<br />

As well they discussed Ukraine's energy<br />

problems and concerns surrounding the<br />

safety of <strong>Ukrainian</strong> nuclear power plants,<br />

a topic that will be discussed at the<br />

upcoming meeting of the G-7 industrial -<br />

ized states. PM Masol informed the<br />

American ambassador about Ukraine's<br />

economic and social problems. Also pre–<br />

sent at the meeting was Ukraine's<br />

Minister of Foreign Affairs Anatoliy<br />

Zlenko. (Respublika)<br />

Chornobyl on the West's agenda<br />

KYYiy - <strong>The</strong> West is having a hard<br />

time figuring out how to shut down<br />

THE UKRAINIAN WEEKLY<br />

KYYiy - President Leonid<br />

Kravchuk proposed on June 21 that<br />

Ukraine and Russia set up a joint corpo–<br />

ration for extracting and refining oil.<br />

During a pre-election visit to the<br />

Lysychanske refinery in eastern Ukraine,<br />

he said he had formally proposed the idea<br />

to Russian President Boris Yeltsin. "1<br />

have asked Yeltsin to ask the appropriate<br />

authorities in Russia to open contacts<br />

with our ministries and resolve the ques–<br />

tion of providing raw materials for the<br />

industry," Mr. Kravchuk said, initial<br />

plans call for Russian holdings to be lim–<br />

ited to 38 percent of the shares to be sold<br />

on the open market, said yiadimir<br />

Chelintsev, deputy director of the<br />

Lysychanske plant, which had been built<br />

to supply Russian-produced oil for south–<br />

ern Russia, the north Caucasus and east–<br />

ern Ukraine. (Reuters)<br />

Ukraine, Slovakia focus on minorities<br />

BRATISLAVA, Slovakia - A group<br />

of experts from Ukraine and Slovakia on<br />

June 21 signed a protocol about creating<br />

a bilateral committee on minority rights,<br />

education and culture. Both sides agreed<br />

to cooperate on matters concerning the<br />

rights of minorities living on their terntn–<br />

ries, with the aim of creating r<br />

conditions that meet internationu<br />

dards. Nearly 40,000 <strong>Ukrainian</strong>s live m<br />

Slovakia, while there are close to 8,000<br />

Slovaks in Ukraine. <strong>The</strong> chief expert of<br />

Ukraine's Ministry for Nationality<br />

Affairs and immigration, Oleksander<br />

Yushchenko, said that the bilateral com–<br />

mittee will consider questions such as<br />

language retention, maintenance of<br />

(Continued on page 23)<br />

FOUNDED ШЗ<br />

An English-language newspaper published by the <strong>Ukrainian</strong> National Association inc.,<br />

a non-profit association, at 30 Montgomery St., Jersey City, N.J. 07302.<br />

Second-class postage paid at Jersey City, N.J. 07302.<br />

(1SSN - 0273-9348)<br />

Yearly subscription rate: $2Q^ for UNA members - S10.<br />

Also published by the UNA: Svoboda, a <strong>Ukrainian</strong>-language daily newspaper.<br />

<strong>The</strong> <strong>Weekly</strong> and Svoboda:<br />

UNA:<br />

(201) 434-0237, -0807, -3036 (201) 451 -2200<br />

Postmaster, send address<br />

changes to:<br />

<strong>The</strong> <strong>Ukrainian</strong> <strong>Weekly</strong><br />

P.O. Box 346<br />

Jersey City, N.J. 07303<br />

Editor-in-chief: Roma Hadzewycz<br />

Associate editor: Marta Kolomayets (Kyyiv)<br />

Assistant editor: Khristina Lew<br />

Staff writersfeditors: Roman Woronowycz (Kyyiv)<br />

Andrij Kudla Wynnyckyj<br />

<strong>The</strong> <strong>Ukrainian</strong> <strong>Weekly</strong>, June 26,<strong>1994</strong>, No. 26, vol. LXll<br />

Copyright (g) <strong>1994</strong> <strong>The</strong> <strong>Ukrainian</strong> <strong>Weekly</strong>

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