The Ukrainian Weekly 1994

22
Systemic crisis...
(Continued from page 2)
em regions of Ukraine. Donetske and
Transcarpathia currently lead in the sepa–
ratist movement from Kyyiv. Recently,
an attempt to create a free-trade zone in
the Transcarpathian region was blocked
by Kyyiv, which viewed it as "sepa–
ratist." This move of the Parliament does
not mean, however, that the question has
been taken off the agenda.
Tensions between Kyyiv and Galicia
have been aggravated recently. For the
Kyyiv elite, Lviv has changed from the
"island of freedom" into the "island of
dissent." That has caused a reduction in
the grain and oil supplies to the region.
This tendency can push Galicia to a dras–
tic orientation of its policy toward eco–
nomic independence and possible politi–
cal separation from Kyyiv. There exist
parallel tensions between southern and
eastern Ukraine and Galicia. it is clear
that this peculiarity of Ukrainian politics
RECORDING DEPARTMENT
TOTAL AS OF DECEMBER 31, 1993
GAlNS lN JANUARY 1994
New members
Reinstated
Transferee! in
Change class in
Transferee! from Juvenile Dept.
LOSSES lN JANUARY 1994
Transferee! out
Change of class out
Transferee! to adults
Died
Cach surrender
Endowment matured
Fully paid-up
Extended insurance
Certificate terminated
MEMBERSHIP REPORT
JUV.
17,277
33
THE UKRAINIAN WEEKLY
and culture will determine the general
development of the situation in Ukraine
and that it possesses greater importance
than the relations in the "center-regions."
The absolute financial-economic and
political crisis in Ukraine has reached
such an intensity (despite shallow "stabil–
ity" - the beloved concept of the Kyyivan
elite) that for its resolution some extraor–
dinary measures are needed, e.g. rapid
privatization, sale of non-functional enterprises
to anybody in the world who would
desire them, broad concessions and car–
tels with foreign companies, and the
issuance of state-guaranteed bonds for
loans. Kyyiv is incapable of such initia–
tives now. Political insecurity in Ukraine
also leaves little hope for any substantial
foreign aid.
Conclusion
The practical and theoretical possibili–
ties for the improvement of the political
and economic crisis in Ukraine are very
small. Objectively, Moscow should be
interested in stimulating the Ukrainian
SUNDAY, JUNE 26, 1994
search for ways out of the situation. At the
same time, the subjective unacceptability
of Ukrainian independence can push
Moscow in the direction of preserving a
situation characterized by permanent polit–
ical tension and economic crisis in
Ukraine. Such a course of action will pre–
vent the emergence of an economically
and politically strong Ukraine, even
though it could save Russian territory from
refugees and the depletion of its treasury.
Another point of view also is possible,
namely that Moscow's policy of "dis–
tancing" itself from Ukrainian economic
and political hardships will cause enor–
mous financial and human expenses in
the future. To prevent this, Moscow must
take on a more active involvement in
Ukrainian affairs.
There are some possible scenarios of
development.
A. Civil war. The unexpected rise to
power of extreme political forces (if, for
instance, the president were to be
impeached, as was recently attempted in
December by 240 MPs) could turn a polit–
Ukrainian National Association
Monthly reports for January
ADULTS
41,237
51
ADD
5,339
8
TOTALS
63,853
92
TOTAL LOSSES 77 254 19 350
INACTIVE MEMBERSHIP
GAlNS 1N JANUARY 1994
Paid-up
Extended insurance
TOTAL GAlNS
LOSSES lN JANUARY 1994
Died
Cach surrender
Reinstated
Lapsed
TOTAL LOSSES
TOTAL UNA MEMBERSHlP
AS OF JANUARY 31, 1994
14
2
16
9
2
12
17,259
52
12
64
48
7
4
3
62
41,150 5,335
F1NANC1AL DEPARTMENT
Dues and Annuity Premiums From Members
income From "Svoboda" Operation
investment income:
Banks
Bonds
Certificate Loans
Mortgage Loans
Real Estate
Short Term investments
Stocks ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
Total
Refunds:
Total
lNCOME FOR JANUARY 1994
Employee Hospitalization Plan Premiums
General Office Maintenance
investment Expense
Operating Expenses Washington Office
Rent
Reward To Special Organizer
Taxes Federal, State fcCity On Employee Wages
Taxes Held in Escrow
Miscellaneous:
Donations To Fraternal Fund
Exchange Account-UNURC
Profit On Bonds Sold or Matured
Transfer Account
Total
investments:
Bonds Matured Or Sold
Mortgages Repaid
Short Term investments Sold
Total
income For January, 1994,„^„„„^„„„„„„„.^„,
DlSBURSEMENTS FOR JANUARY 1994
Paid To Or For Members:
Annuity Benefits And Partial Withdrawals
Cash Surrenders
Death Benefits
66
14
80
49
16
5
74
63,744
WALTER SOCHAN
Supreme Secretary
S
s
s
$
964.82
201,188.43
2,123.43
27,025.37
16,149.34
7,801.48
7,044.48
26,756.38
3,743.37
850.40
2,613.08
186.30
229.20
21,546.98
217.33
2,500.00
158,674.76
7,448.76
326,169.14
494,792.66
344,909.88
107,118.30
397,666.73
849,694.91
2,109,464.56
3,994.56
25,069.15
43,500.00
Total
Dividend Accumulations
Endowments Matured
indigent Benefits Disbursed
interest On Death Benefits
Reinsurance Premiums Paid
Operating Expenses:
Real Estate
Svoboda Operation
Washington Office
Official Publication-Svoboda
Organizing Expenses:
Advertising
Commissions And Overrides On Universal Life
Field Conferences
Medical inspections
Refund of Branch Secretaries Expenses
Reward To Organizers
Reward To Special Organizers
Supreme Medical Examiner's Fee
Traveling Expenses-Special Organizers
Total
Payroll, insurance And Taxes:
Employee Benefit Plan
insurance-General
Salaries Of Executive Officers
Salaries Of Office Employees
Taxes-Federal, State And City On Employee tt
Total
General Expenses:
Actuarial And Statistical Expenses
Total
Bank Charges
Bank Charges For Custodian Account
Books And Periodicals
Dues To Fraternal Congresses
General Office Maintenance
insurance Department Fees
Operating Expense of Canadian Office
Printing and Stationery
Rental Of Equipment And Services
Telephone, Telegraph
Traveling Expenses-General.^^^
Miscellaneous:
Accrued interest On Bonds
Auditing Committee Expenses
Donation From Fund For The Rebirth Of Ukraine
Donations
Exchange Account– Payroll
Fraternal Activities
investment Expense-Mortgages
Loss On Bonds
Professional Fees
Rent
Transfer Account
Ukrainian Publications
Total
investments:
Bonds
Certificate Loans
E.D.P. Equipment
Total
^lSEurSSml snts For Jam uary, 1994
ASSETS
Cash
Short Term
investments
Bonds
'
Mortgage Loans 'm
Certificate Loan "
Real Estate "
Printing Plant A E.D.P. "
Equipment
Stocks
Loan to D.H.-U.N.A
Housing Corp.
Loan To U.N.U.R.C.
BALANCE
LIABILITIES
775,539.31 Life insurance
50,170,008.08
636,660.73 Accidental D.D.
685,827.82 Fraternal
1,712,115.71 Orphans
104,551.04 Old Age Home
8,834,553.19 Emergency
S
5"
772.54
72,625.95
500.00
13.50
586.08
85,948.32
79,096.55
17,506.36
83,078.10
23,097.37
2,249.57
444.00
369.16
66,042.02
4,206.24
9,452.79
1,500.00
2,869.92
43,239.61
9,000.00
19,091.99
64,427.73
22,870.07
6,359.00
519.82
2,431.35
321.32
200.00
1,211.47
515.25
520.00
706.27
2,219.70
35,728.76
3,205.48
850.68
54,789.10
68.06
33.23
69,141.72
50.00
158,674.76
657.16
775.00
44.81
4,170.00
1,885.63
325,000.00
1,031.00
497,270.00
3,103.43
10,110.00
4,552.07
335,701.81
3,926.75
854,664.06
2,152,536.11
$ 75,252,610.11
ToTaT І 73,553,263.- З 73,553,263.34"
ALEXANDER BLAH1TKA
Supreme Treasurer
N0.26
ical conflict into a military one. The pre–
text for this could be terrorist activities of
paramilitary forces such as UNSO
(Ukrainian National Self-Defense) in
Sevastopil or in the Donbas. Provocations
could also be organized by the SBU (for–
mer KGB). Armed conflict could spread
through a significant part of Ukrainian
territory, thus causing a stampede of
refugees to Russia.
The intervention of Russia would
become inevitable in such a case.
Moscow's delay in entering into a conflict
would entail for Moscow a sharp increase
in both political and economic expenses
(something like U.S. and NATO military
involvement in Bosnia).
B. The "Latin-Americanization" of
Ukraine. There exists the possibility that
the Ukrainian military will attempt to play
the same role that the army played in some
countries of Latin America (Pinochet). But
this variant would be tantamount to eco–
nomic catastrophe, as the Ukrainian army
is incapable of conducting economic
reform due to the absence of necessary
economic experience in the officers' corps
and its refusal to collaborate with dictator–
ial regime on the side of market-oriented
economists. For Russia this scenario
would signify, first of all, the existence in
Ukraine of an authoritarian and nationalis–
tic regime incapable of guaranteeing ele–
mentary supplies to its citizens, subse–
quently causing the mass flight of
refugees, and the inevitable involvement
of Russia in the restoration of the
Ukrainian economy because of its role as a
link with Europe. The financial costs for
Russia in this case would be enormous.
C. The disintegration of Ukraine.
Economic and political crises could lead
to the emergence of several states on the
territory of Ukraine. The variant of civil
war is highly probable in this case, if the
disintegration does occur peacefully,
then all the resulting smaller states will
face the same economic, financial and
political problems as Ukraine. Russia
will be compelled to grant financial
assistance to these countries in order to
guarantee access to Europe and to pre–
vent them from fighting with each other.
There also may exist in these new coun–
tries the desire to unite with Russia.
D. The further economic and political
degradation of the existing regime in
Ukraine. This is-pe^mie if the continua–
tion of the current tenfielie^s does not
result in a social explosion, civil war, or
the disintegration of Ukraine. Taking
into account the broad cultural ami eth–
nic links between Russia and Ukrabe
and the problem of refugees, Russia in
this case would be dragged into
Ukrainian problems. Russia may also be
forced to deal with problems resulting
from the degradation of Ukraine, such as
illegal exports of drugs and arms from
that country. The continuing existence of
nuclear arms, nuclear plants, and the
high possibility of ecologic catastrophe
in Ukraine may also endanger the territo–
ry of Russia.
E. The most dangerous scenario is that
both Russia and Ukraine will disinte–
grate. This could result in an exhausting
war. This scenario could be the cause of
a third world war and would involve the
efforts of both the United States and its
Western allies. A resolution of such a
conflict would require peacekeeping
forces, substantial financial aid and a
great deal of negotiations.
F. The final scenario is the slow
degradation of Ukraine. This could be
coupled with the further "fascization" of
Russia if Zhirinovsky or another nation–
alist comes to power in 1996. in essence,
this variant repeats some of the main fea–
tures of the previous one. All scenarios
are tantamount to the loss of Ukrainian
independence, its fragmentation and the
marginalization of its existence in the
European and global context.