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WGC REPORTS
EPORTS RWASHINGTON GRAIN COMMISSION
A favorable forecast
popular Tri-STATE CONVENTION SPEAKER GIVES CONTExt FOR WEATHER CONCLuSIONS
WASHINGTON GRAIN COMMISSION
By Scott A. Yates
Whether it’s wheat farming or long-range weather
forecasting, the end product is what’s important, but
it’s the process that makes it all possible. Which may be
why wheat farmers so enjoy Art Douglas’ meteorological
presentations. He doesn’t just anticipate Mother Nature’s
moves, he provides the context for his conclusions.
Douglas, who has been traveling to
the Pacific Northwest almost every
year since 1979, spoke at the Tri-State
Wheat Convention in late November.
The Washington Grain Commissionsponsored
event drew a large and
appreciative audience. It didn’t hurt that
Douglas’ forecast through August 2012
predicted a relatively benign weather
pattern of adequate, but not heavy
moisture, moderate temperatures and a
dry harvest period for the region.
Although the future should be similar
to last year, this season won’t be a repeat
of 2010/11 because of a cooler than
normal body of water off the Pacific
Northwest coast. This phenomenon is
reducing evaporation, which means
fewer clouds, which means less potential
precipitation. As such, Douglas
predicts a smaller amount of snow in the Cascade
Mountains as well as “not having excess moisture
through the winter” in wheat growing areas.
“You are not going to have the heavy snow cover you
experienced the last few years,” he said.
The main factor influencing Douglas’ forecast, however,
is the reemergence of a cool body of water off the west
coast of South America. Called La Niña, it will dictate
world crop conditions for the next three or four months.
Meteorologist Art
Douglas predicts
a relatively benign
weather pattern for
the PNW through
August of 2012:
•Adequate, but not
heavy moisture
•Moderate
temperatures
•A dry harvest period
for the region
In the Northwest, it generally means adequate moisture.
Its opposite number, called El Niño, is represented by a
warm body of water off the west coast of South America.
When El Niño dominates, it also has implications for
much of the world. In the Northwest, it signals drought.
It is good news for the region, therefore, that a La Niña
reasserted itself this season. Other areas of the U.S. will
not be as pleased. In the Southwest,
including Texas north to Kansas and
Colorado, La Niña means dry weather
in a section of the country already reeling
from a lack of moisture.
“You have to be concerned about winter
wheat production in the Southern
plains,” Douglas said.
At the same time, he cautioned
his audience of wheat farmers from
Washington, Oregon and Idaho that
if El Niño develops this summer, they
may face drought conditions going into
the fall.
European climate modeling data,
which Douglas believes is among the
most accurate, predicts an El Niño
developing this summer after the
Northwest wheat crop has been made.
U.S. climate modeling is not as aggressive
about its strength, but also foresees an El Niño
replacing the current La Niña by summer. Australian
models are the exception. Last year, Australian meteorologists
were predicting an El Niño that didn’t form. This
year they are predicting no El Niño.
Like the Northwest, Australia is frequently hammered
by drought during El Niño years. If the warm water off
the west coast of South America reasserts itself in the
June-August time frame, wheat growers Down Under
46 WHEAT LIFE JANUARY 2012