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WGC REPORTS WL Winter 2011 temperature and precipitation outlook Summer 2012 temperature and precipitation outlook WASHINGTON GRAIN COMMISSION Slides taken from Art Douglas’ presentation at the 2011 Tri-State <strong>Wheat</strong> Convention could be in for difficult times as their crop is still in its growing phase. Harvest in Australia begins in October and continues through January. Not all parts of the world are influenced by the La Niña/El Niño phenomenon and that includes Ukraine and Russia. However, Douglas said satellite vegetation maps show drought is redeveloping in much of the Black Sea area. Not only that, there was considerably more snow cover in the grain-growing region indicating cold temperatures and the potential for winter kill for wheat under drought stress. Back in the Northwest, Douglas’ prediction of an average growing season has one caveat: sunspots. Not long ago, the sun went for a long period without any sunspot activity. Now, at 120 sunspots, numbers are way above normal. WHEAT LIFE JANUARY 2012 47
WL WGC REPORTS WASHINGTON GRAIN COMMISSION Long-range weather forecaster Art Douglas (left) talks with Washington Grain Commissioner Hal Johnson at the Tri-State <strong>Wheat</strong> Convention. He said it is possible a massive solar flare could heat the atmosphere above Greenland, where solar energy initially strikes the earth, and create an upper stratospheric warming event. As opposed to expectations, that high altitude warming could result in a sudden chill in the Eastern U.S., a freezing event which has the potential to extend as far west as the Pacific Northwest. Unfortunately, solar flares can’t be forecast more than six or eight hours in advance. A coronal mass ejection hit Earth on Oct. 24, 2011 at approximately 2:00 p.m. EDT. The impact strongly compressed Earth’s magnetic field, directly exposing geosynchronous satellites to solar wind plasma and sparked an intense geomagnetic storm. As night fell over North America, auroras spilled across the Canadian border into the contiguous United States. A U.S. Department of Defense satellite photographed the crossing. 48 WHEAT LIFE JANUARY 2012
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