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Notes on a composite leading indicator of inflation

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Van der Walt, B.E. & Pretorius, W.S. March 1995. Business cycles in South Africa during the period<br />

1986 to 1993. Quarterly Bulletin. Pretoria: South African Reserve Bank<br />

Zarnowitz, V. & Boschan, C. May 1975. Cyclical <strong>indicator</strong>s: An evaluati<strong>on</strong> and new <strong>leading</strong> indexes.<br />

Business C<strong>on</strong>diti<strong>on</strong>s Digest. Washingt<strong>on</strong>: US Department <strong>of</strong> Commerce.<br />

1 To attain the ultimate objective <strong>of</strong> price stability, the m<strong>on</strong>etary authorities determine an acceptable<br />

growth rate for the m<strong>on</strong>ey supply as an intermediate objective. The growth in the m<strong>on</strong>ey supply is then<br />

affected by changes in the amount <strong>of</strong> liquidity available in the banking system and by changing the<br />

cost <strong>of</strong> accommodating the m<strong>on</strong>ey market shortage.

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