here - Risk Prediction Initiative - Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences

Request for Proposals – North Atlantic Tsunamis
North Atlantic tsunamis have exhibited a low frequency; however, tsunamis have been documented to
occur, which could generate catastrophic losses along Atlantic coastlines today (Baptista et al, 2011).
Tsunami Hazard assessments for various regions have been made based on historical data, with a view
to protecting life, and estimating economic damage to property and infrastructure (Dunbar and Weaver,
2008; Leonard et al, 2012). However, the complexities of tsunami inundation dictate that multiple scales
be examined via numerical simulation when trying to assess the potential damage footprint (Lynnett
and Liu, 2011) for catastrophe risk modeling purposes.
Adding to the complexity of tsunami risk is the potential for submarine landslide events to trigger
tsunami inundation (ten Brink et al, 2007) without an accompanying earthquake (the peril with which
tsunamis are often paired in catastrophe models). Referring to catastrophe risk modeling, Lotz and
Schmiesing (2012) state that “no vendor model currently exists for quantifying tsunami risk.”
Excerpt: ten Brink, 2009: Fig. 1.
Shaded relief map of the East
Coast of the United States with
interpretation. NC — Norfolk
Canyon, WC — Wilmington
Canyon, HC — Hudson Canyon, VC
— Veatch Canyon. Inset —
Location map. NES — New
England Seamounts. BS — Blake
Spur, BE — Blake Escarpment.
Seafloor data on the continental
slope and rise is almost entirely
based on multibeam bathymetry,
whereas the majority of seafloor
data on the shelf is based on
single-beam bathymetry. Figure
courtesy of David Twichell (USGS).
Excerpt: ten Brink, 2009: Assessment of tsunami hazard to the Atlantic coast of the Unites States poses a scientific
challenge because of the paucity of both historical events and prehistoric tsunami evidence. The Atlantic coast of
the U.S., also known as the U.S. East Coast, is highly vulnerable to tsunami damage because major population
centers and industrial facilities are located near the shoreline at low-lying elevations.
RPI is interested in generating a set of damage or vulnerability functions from modeled Atlantic tsunami
inundations impacting Atlantic coastlines with large potential for catastrophic losses. In addition, we are
keen to develop an event set of damage scenarios from existing high quality research with a view to
quantifying loss probabilistically.
The Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI2.0), part of the Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences, promotes productive dialogue between
scientists and (re)insurers involved in catastrophe risk by refocusing scientific research towards answering the industry’s questions.
BIOS is an independent U.S. non-profit marine research and educational institute and Bermuda registered charity founded in 1903.

Questions, objectives and scope of work
Develop a set of realistic tsunami inundation scenarios, to a high resolution, for high exposure regions
along Atlantic coastlines.
Develop and provide a probabilistic mechanism for determining the proportion of earthquake-induced
tsunamis and tele-tsunamis, vs. non-earthquake tsunami genesis (e.g. from local submarine landslides).
Key components of this work will be:
- A final report that details the results of the analysis. The final report should stress the thinking
and rationale supporting the techniques that were used to analyze and clean the primary data
as well as the final analysis of the finalized data set.
- A dataset derived from the study which underpins any subsequent publications and/or code
which may be used directly by RPI members prior to any resulting publication.
This work should be completed by June 2014. The successful scientist(s) should plan to attend an RPI
Research Update Workshop in Bermuda in 2014, with a view to a presentation of the results. The
successful scientist(s) may also be requested to attend other RPI Members functions.
Interested parties should submit a research proposal of no more than 5 pages that includes a budget.
Proposals should be uploaded electronically via the following website:
http://rpi.bios.edu/proposal_upload/upload.
Previous RPI grant awards have generally been on the order of $50K/year. Award decisions are based on
the scientific merit of the proposed research, the relevance of the research to the stated goals,
development and availability of appropriate follow-on applications for our Members, and the dollar
amount requested.
Further information on the RPI is available at http://rpi.bios.edu/.
Submissions deadline is May 15, 2013.

References
Baptista, M. A., J. M. Miranda, R. Omira, and C. Antunes Potential inundation of Lisbon downtown by a
1755-like tsunami, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 3319–3326, 2011
www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/11/3319/2011/ doi:10.5194/nhess-11-3319-2011
Dunbar, Paula K. and Craig S. Weaver, U.S. States and Territories National Tsunami Hazard Assessment:
Historical Record and Sources for Waves, Prepared for the, National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation
Program, August 2008 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration, U.S. DEPARTMENT OF INTERIOR, U.S. Geological Survey
Leonard, L.J., G.C. Rogers, and S. Mazzotti, A Preliminary Tsunami Hazard Assessment of the Canadian
Coastline, OPEN FILE 7201, GEOLOGICAL SURVEY OF CANADA, 2012, Natural Resources Canada.
Lotz, L., and Schmiesing, Z., Frequent Changes to Catastrophe Models: The Far-Reaching Impact ,
Emphasis 2012 - Issue 1, March 2012, Towers Watson,
http://www.towerswatson.com/en/Insights/Newsletters/Global/emphasis
Lynett, P., and Liu, P. L.-F. (2011) "Simulation of Complex Tsunami Behavior." Computing in Science and
Engineering Magazine, July/August 2011, v. 13(4), pp. 50-57, doi: 10.1109/ MCSE.2011.22.
ten Brink, Uri, Preface - Tsunami hazard along the U.S. Atlantic coast, Marine Geology 264 (2009) 1–3
_____, David Twichell, Eric Geist, Jason Chaytor, Jacques Locat, Homa Lee, Brian Buczkowski, and
Mylène Sansoucy (Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Tsunami Hazard Assessment Group), The Current State of
Knowledge Regarding Potential Tsunami Sources Affecting U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts - A Report to the
Nuclear Regulatory Commission, USGS, 2007