Untitled - Civic Exchange

Chapter 6:
Hong Kong's Freight Transport
6.2 Projections of freight activity
Projections are available for cargo movements associated with the port and the airport, for growth in the
number of goods vehicles, and for cross-border trips by all road vehicles (but mostly goods vehicles).
These are presented here and discussed in turn.
Figure 6.6 River and seaborne cargo handled by Hong Kong's port, 1999 and 2000,
and projections to 2020
Cargo movements through the port have been forecast by the Port and Maritime Board and are presented
in Figure 6.6. 207 Perhaps the most interesting aspect of this forecast is the projected 126% increase in
seaborne freight movement - ocean cargo - between 1999 and 2020, equivalent to a 4% increase per year.
Ocean cargo is the key factor in trade. As the Board noted in its forecast document, river transport is inland
transport, and should be set aside when considering growth in international trade activity.
A key feature of recent port activity is the essential lack of increase in seaborne freight movement since
1995, after almost doubling in the period from 1989 to 1995 (see Figure 6.4). Thus, the context for this
projection is near-zero growth for several years, which is to be followed by 4% annual growth sustained over
two decades. The only new factor offered as explanation for this forecast is China's accession to the World
Trade Organization (WTO) in December 2001, impending at the time the Board's report was prepared. It
was anticipated that this would increase the volume of trade through Hong Kong by 10% over a four-year
period. No explanation is given for the remainder of the proposed 126% increase in seaborne freight.
The Board's forecast document focuses specifically on container traffic. The ocean cargo portion of this
traffic is expected to increase between 1999 and 2020 at an even higher rate than all ocean cargo, by a total
of 144%. The projections for the period 2005-2020 are shown in Figure 6.7, together with actual data for
1995-2001 and corresponding information for Shenzhen's container ports. 208 61
207 Figure 6.5 is Figure ES1 in PMB (2000), Hong Kong Port Cargo Forecasts 2000/2001: Executive Summary,
Hong Kong.
208 Data for Hong Kong in Figure 6.6 are from PMB (2002), Summary Statistics on Port Traffic in Hong Kong (as
of December 2001) and projections are from PMB (2000), Hong Kong Port Cargo Forecasts 2000/2001: Executive
Summary. Information concerning Shenzhen ports is from a Hong Kong government source: Ng A. (2001), Moving
People and Products to World Market - The Case of Hong Kong, Presentation at the Asia-Pacific Cities Summit,
Seattle, Washington.