Untitled - Civic Exchange

SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT IN HONG KONG: DIRECTIONS AND OPPORTUNITIES
the doubling of the fleet in less than two decades. 213
The projection regarding cross-border goods traffic by road may be even more extraordinary in view of
recent trends. The composition of the cross-border traffic is not addressed in the report, except by a
suggestion that it will reflect historical trends. If this were to be the case, the preferred projection would
imply a total of close to 93,600 daily goods vehicle crossings in 2016, nearly a fourfold increase over the
actual number of crossings in 2001. The actual increase since 1995 seems to have been about 14% (see
Figure 6.3). Thus - again for reasons that are not explained - a period of modest growth in cross-border
goods traffic (2.2% a year) is to be followed by 15 years of astonishing growth (9.2% a year). 214
The factors underlying government projections of the goods vehicle fleet and of cross-border trips by goods
vehicles may be the same as those mentioned earlier as responsible for the equally extraordinary
projections in seaborne freight, namely wishful thinking and lack of realistic appraisal of trends and
opportunities. It could be argued that economic circumstances made the late 1990s and even all of the
1990s unusual, and this period is thus a poor basis for forecasting the next two decades. While this may be
so, this argument was not presented in the forecast documents. Moreover, the almost uninterrupted growth
in airfreight handled at Hong Kong's airports suggests that the effects of economic circumstances on freight
movement were not pervasive.
Finally, the absence of current projections regarding rail freight should be noted. Presently, almost no
freight is moved by rail in Hong Kong. The last review of freight transport 215 recommended construction
of a Port Rail Line (PRL) by 2003, estimating that it would increase the total tonnage of cross-border
freight by 10% and also reduce the amount carried by road by about 15%. The line would link the Kwai
Chung container terminal with the rail network in mainland China.
A PRL was proposed again in 2000 without predictions as to its effect, but with the puzzling note that its
implementation "hinges on growth of the rail-borne freight to the Kwai Chung ports." The document also
noted that "the PRL would support the growth of the port cargo by tapping freight from the deep hinterland
of the Mainland and could benefit the SAR's economy." 216 The current status of the project appears to be
that the government is committed to construction of the PRL but that detailed design work has yet to
begin. 217
6.3 Hong Kong as a logistics hub for south China
Uncertainties about Hong Kong's future as an entrepot for mainland China prompted the Port and Maritime
Board to establish a Committee on Logistics Services Development in 2000 and to commission what
became known as the McClier Report. 218 This HK$40 million report was produced in 2001 by a consulting
team headed by the McClier Corporation, a Chicago-based firm of architects and engineers. It proposed a
"Competitive Strategy and Master Plan for Hong Kong as the Preferred International Regional
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213 This ambitious projection echoes the projection of growth in the goods vehicle fleet made in the early 1990s.
Then, a 25% increase was projected between 1991 and 2001, but no growth occurred (see Footnote 197).
214 This truly extraordinary projection echoes similar projections about cross-border goods vehicle crossings made
in the early 1990s. Then, a 135% increase in border crossings was projected between 1991 and 2001, more than
twice the increase that actually occurred (see Footnote 197).
215 Transport Department (1994), Freight Transport Study.
216 Transport Bureau (2000), Second Rail Development Strategy, Hong Kong: HKSAR Government.
217 This was indicated in a response by the Secretary for Transport to a question posed in the Legislative Council
(January 9, 2002). The PRL was also promoted in the McClier Report as part of a proposal for an "Inland Logistics
Rail Pipeline" (see section 6.3).
218 PMB (2001), Study to Strengthen Hong Kong's Role as the Preferred International and Regional Transport and
Logistics Hub, Hong Kong.