Untitled - Civic Exchange

SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT IN HONG KONG: DIRECTIONS AND OPPORTUNITIES
relaxed supply chains of the "just-in-case" practices rely less on logistics, and could thus favor routes where
logistics skills are less well developed than in Hong Kong. On the other hand, enhanced security will add
to logistics requirements and the result could be a greater need for logistics overall. At the moment, it is
difficult to say how this will play out.
In terms of value, about half of the goods from China trans-shipped through Hong Kong are destined for
the US, where the focus of security planning has shifted from airports and aircraft to seaports and freight
containers. Measures under consideration would involve tagging, tracking, and tamper-proofing every
container as it moves across the world. The logistical challenges would be huge. In 2001, the world's total
movement in containers was between 72 million and 244 million TEUs (available data are alarmingly
imprecise). The movement of each container can involve up to 25 different parties and require at least 30-
40 separate documents - more if a container carries freight for several customers.
The US has proposed installing its own security checks at numerous foreign ports and using these ports as
exclusive gateways to the US. A more far-reaching proposal under discussion would enable the US to
extend its border controls to the point of origin, i.e., the factory or warehouse where the container is filled
and sealed. Such requirements could alter globalization patterns in profound ways but the impact on Hong
Kong is unclear - new patterns could result in more or less freight movement through Hong Kong. 230
What is not at all clear is how long this new paradigm will apply. Is it a change for a generation, essentially
a fundamental reversal in centuries-long trends in transport and the economy Will it be swept aside in a
year or two by unrelenting economic imperatives and remain only as a bad memory Or, as some have
proposed, will it be a transition to an era of energy constraints and consequent reductions in mobility
6.4 Towards sustainable freight transport
Although it is relatively easy to prescribe a path towards the sustainable movement of people, 231 it is
difficult to prescribe the steps needed for more sustainable movement of freight for a number of key
reasons:
• Data on freight movement are poor.
• There are many unknowns about trade with mainland China.
• Hong Kong's plans for rail freight for the next decade or so are much less clear than plans for
passenger rail. However, even through there is potential for moving some freight by rail, it is likely
that a large amount would still need to be moved by road, and there are major questions about
whether this could be achieved in a more sustainable manner.
However these and other uncertainties are resolved, the challenge of moving Hong Kong's transport
towards sustainability would likely be easier if Hong Kong were no longer a physical entrepot for south
China. The freight transport system would be less extensive and less economically important. There would
be a smaller system to make sustainable, and less economic imperative to resist sustainability.
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230 The comments on the US approach to security are taken from "The Trojan box," The Economist, February 7,
2002; "When trade and security clash," The Economist, April 4, 2002; and from interviews with US officials during
the television program 60 Minutes on March 24, 2002.
231 What is meant by a sustainable transport system is set out in Chapter 1 and also discussed in Gilbert, R. (2002),
Electrifying Hong Kong: Making Transport Sustainable. In brief, it is transport that meets current needs without
reducing opportunities for future generations to meet their needs.