Untitled - Civic Exchange

SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT IN HONG KONG: DIRECTIONS AND OPPORTUNITIES
Figure 6.7 indicates that between 1995 and 2000, seaborne
container traffic increased from 11.0 to 13.3 million TEUs, an
increase of 3.9% per year. Review of the relevant data suggests
that this was largely the result of increased containerization of
cargo, particularly goods from mainland China being sent
abroad through Hong Kong. The containerization rate of these
goods increased progressively from 78% in 1995 to 93% in
2000. The scope for further containerization seems limited.
Nevertheless, a high rate of growth in container traffic is
projected to 2020.
Figure 6.7 shows even higher projected rates of increase and
accelerated growth in traffic through Shenzhen's container
ports, which are set to pass Hong Kong in terms of container
traffic during the next two decades. For 2001, Shenzhen's
container traffic met its projected trajectory, putting it among
the world's ten busiest container ports for the first time. In the
same year, Hong Kong's container traffic fell below projections;
however, the port remained the world's busiest.
Figure 6.7 Containerized seaborne
cargo handled at Hong Kong and
Shenzhen ports, actual and projected,
1995-2001
The projected increases in Hong Kong's port traffic seem unfounded, based on wishful thinking rather than
realistic appraisals of trends and opportunities. The total amount of seaborne freight handled is a critical
indicator of port traffic and has essentially remained constant in Hong Kong since 1995. Yet the Port and
Maritime Board report suggests it will suddenly show large (4%) annual increases and sustain these
increases for two decades. The amount of seaborne container freight, possibly a more important indicator,
has been almost as flat. The increase in container freight is largely due to increased containerization rather
than increased throughput. And yet this measure is expected to show even larger increases.
Moreover, the Port and Maritime Board's forecast document itself notes that profound challenges are ahead
for Hong Kong's port. Most of the port activity involves goods originating in or destined for Guangdong
Province. Hong Kong has higher handling charges than the Shenzhen ports and the cost of moving goods
between Guangdong and Hong Kong is high. Rationalization of customs procedures and tariffs following
WTO accession will encourage use of Shenzhen ports. At the same time, the progressive liberalization of
trade between mainland China and Taiwan, possibly imminent, will favor use of northern ports.
The hope for Hong Kong, according to the document, lies in provision of services, chiefly logistics and
banking, that may be less available in Shenzhen. This matter will be discussed in section 6.3.
Projections of the volume of airfreight handled at Chek Lap Kok Airport (Hong Kong International Airport)
speak to increases of 6% a year in regular cargo and 12% a year in express cargo. 209 Using the 2000 total
of 2.24 million tonnes as a base, and assuming that express cargo is presently 5% of total air cargo, the
projected total volume in 2020 is close to 7.9 million tonnes. This would represent an overall increase over
the 2000 level of 250%, or about 6.5% annually.
This increase is even higher than that projected for ocean cargo. It is, however, more in accordance with
recent trends. Airfreight volume handled at Hong Kong airports increased by just under 9% annually over
the period from 1995 to 2000 (see Figure 6.4). Moreover, the airport was designed to incorporate additional
facilities that would ultimately permit the handling of nine million tonnes of cargo annually.
Ocean cargo (millions of TEUs)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Hong Kong
Shenzhen
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
209
Airport Authority Hong Kong (2001), Hong Kong International Airport Master Plan 2020, Hong Kong.
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