EACC Bolivia

66
9. sUmmARy And
conclUsions
climAtE chAngE
Observation of the climate is a permanent practice in the
communities.
Campesino and indigenous communities possess a long
and rich tradition of systematically observing climate
evolution, since their livelihoods depend upon it. The
results of our study showed that communities generally
have an accurate knowledge of changing climate trends
over the long term.
However, the community workshops revealed that there
was little capacity for forecasting shorter-term climate
changes. Climate change and increased climate variability
means that many of the traditional climate indicators
are no longer effective, which obliges the
communities to construct new indicators for predicting
weather over the short term.
The powers of observation and interpretation of the
climate possessed by people in the communities areimportant
advantages which authorities should take into
account when designing climate change policies.
the key climate change trends identified by
the communities are rising temperatures
and increased water scarcity.
One of the main conclusions of our study is that
climate change has been observed in all communities,
regardless of the particular ecosystem in which they are
located. The most significant trends compared with
20–30 years ago were identified as: (i) rising temperatures
and increased shortage of water; and (ii) increasingly
irregular rainfall with shorter and more intense
rainy seasons. The campesinos in Bolivia’s Amazon
region claimed that temperatures were higher, more rain
fell than previously, and that floods were more frequent,
more intense, and lasted longer.
the communities regard drought and floods
as being the main problems in the climate
scenario for the future.
Judging from the climate trends observed, the communities
studied have come to the conclusion that the
most probable future climate scenario will involve
higher temperatures and water shortages affecting the
country’s four micro-regions, together with higher rainfall
and extensive flooding in the Amazon.
climAtE chAngE impActs
Climate change Will Have negative effects on communities´
quality of life.
All communities came to the conclusion that climate
change will have an immediate and direct effect: a sharp
decline in production capacity, related to a reduction of
soil, grassland, and forest-based productivity due mainly
to insufficient water to offset the expected higher
temperatures and consequent evapotranspiration.
Reduced production is likely to mean economic hardship
for many families who will have fewer surplus
goods to sell.