NBA Schedule/Log

PLAYING FOUR GAmES IN FIVE DAYS
One of many interesting scheduling situations in the
NBA is the 4-games-in-5-days situation. Usually, it consists
of a set of back-to back games, a day off and another
set of back-to-back games. However, in strike years, when the season
is compressed, a four-game-in-five-days stretch can include a game,
a days rest and then three games in three days. Similarly, there can
be three straight games, a days off and then another game.
This season there are 218 occurrences of a team playing four
games in five days—an average of 7.27 per team over the 66-game
season.
The handicapper can theorize that the performance of a team
playing their fourth game in five days may be compromised because
of the scheduling situation. Put simply, the team is tired. The obvious
questions an intelligent handicapper will have regarding the four
games in five days situation include, “Is the likelihood of a team
winning the game reduced by the fact that they are playing their
fourth game in five days? If so, by how much? Is the likelihood of
a team covering the spread reduced by the fact that they are playing
their fourth game in five days? If so, by how much? Is the line
adjusted for the fact that a team is playing their fourth game in five
days? If so, by how much?”
Of course, the answers to these questions may vary greatly from
team to team. One might expect that a young, deep team that is in
good physical condition might perform better than an older team
that relies heavily on its star players when playing their fourth game
in five days. However, for the purposes of this analysis we will only
examine the league’s results as a whole. Individual team trends when
playing their fourth game in five days and when facing a team that
playing their fourth game in five days can uncovered using the
Sports Data Query Language (SDQL).
Now let’s get to the questions posed earlier. To answer them
we will use the results of the past seventeen NBA regular seasons.
That’s a pool of 19,602 games. The strategy is to look at the league’s
results as a whole and then compare them with the league’s results
when playing their fourth game in five days. We’ll start by getting
the league’s results as a whole based on the site (home vs away). In
the NBA, the home team is 11,854-7748 straight up over the
past ten seasons winning by an average of 3.3 points as a favorite of
3.4 points. This is a winning percentage of 60.5%. The away team
The League’s Results from 1995-96 through 2010-11
12 | KillerSports.com
is, of course, just the opposite. They are 7748-11,854 straight up
losing by an average of 3.3 points getting an average of 3.4 points.
This is a winning percentage of 39.5%.
Now that we have the league’s results as a whole, let’s look at just
the 4-games-in-5-days results. When an away team is playing their
fourth game in five days they are a combined 359-648 straight up
over the past seventeen seasons losing by an average of 4.8 points
per game. This is a winning percentage of 35.6%. So, from these
results we can conclude that the performance of an away team playing
their fourth game in five days is reduced. In fact, it is reduced
by about 1.5 points because any away team loses by an average of
3.3 ppg but an away team playing their fourth game in five days has
lost by an average of 4.8 ppg. The obvious question the handicapper
would ask is, “Is this reduction in performance accounted for
in the line?” The answer is “not quite.” Over the past ten seasons
teams that are on the road and playing their fourth game in five
days have been – on the average – a 4.5 point underdog. So, the
linesmakers adjust the line somewhat when a team is playing their
fourth game in five days and they are on the road.
Now let’s look at the home team that is playing their fourth game
in five days. Over the past ten seasons, the league is a cumulative
281-243 in this situation winning by an average of 1.8 points while
being favored by an average of 2.1 points. A record of 181-129 has
a winning percentage of 53.6%. So, it appears that playing their
fourth game in five days is detrimental to a team’s performance
even if they are at home because all home teams have won 60.5%
of their games by an average of 3.3 points in the same time span.
We can summarize our results in a table, shown on the bottom of
the facing page.
Now let’s take a look at all the 4-in-5 situations scheduled for
the upcoming 2011-12 season. The schedule-makers assign the
four-in-five situation as necessary without regard to an equitable
distribution amongst the 30 NBA teams. If a team has a relatively
small number of four-in-five situations it is an advantage and if a
team hosts a relatively large number of opponents that are playing
their fourth game in five days it is an advantage. Of course, if a team
plays a large number of 4-in-5 situations and faces a small number
of teams playing their fourth game in five days it is a scheduling
disadvantage. This information is especially useful when playing
HOME
W/L record Winning % SUm ATS Rec ATSm Line
All Home 11854-7748 60.5% (+3.3) 9516-9708-378 (-0.1) -3.4
4th-in-5, Home 281-243 53.6% (+1.8) 236-276-12 (-0.2) -2.1
AWAY
W/L record Winning % SUm ATS Rec ATSm Line
All Away 7748-11854 39.5% (-3.3) 9708-9516-378 (+0.1) +3.4
4th-in-5, Away 359-648 35.6% (-4.8) 487-496-24 (-0.3) +4.5