NBA Schedule/Log

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2011–2012 BACK-TO-BACK ROAD GAmES In all the professional sports, the back-to-back road games in the NBA might be the most physically grueling. In the NFL, there are different players for offense and defense and the NFL plays sixteen regular season games a year. In the NBA, there are usually 82 regular season games and the players must play both defense and offense. Unlike other sports, the line for the side on the game is adjusted when one team in unrested and the other is not. That is, the NBA is the only major sport that adjusts the lines for a fatigue factor. Let’s investigate this further To start, we present the following four query results with their associated Sports Data Query Language (SDQL) text: SDQL: A SU: 7745-11852 (-3.3) (39.5%) ATS: 9707-9512-378 (0.1) avg line: +3.4 SDQL: rest>0 and A SU: 5375-7861 (-2.8) (40.6%) ATS: 6627-6355-254 (+0.3) avg line: +3.1 SDQL: rest=0 and A SU: 2365-3982 (-4.2) (37.3%) ATS: 3073-3150-124 (-0.3) avg line: +3.9 SDQL: A and p:A and rest=0 SU: 1292-2110 (-3.9) (38.0%) ATS: 1678-1655-69 (-0.0) avg line: +3.9 The first query, A, (A means the away team) gives the results of all road games since 1995-96. Here we see that the road team has a record of 7745-11,852, which is 39.5% winners. We also see that they have been a 3.4 point underdog on the average and we see that they have lost by an average of 3.3 ppg. The second query, A and rest>0, gives the results of all road games since 1995-96 in which the road team did not play the day before. Here we see that the rested road team is 5375-7861 straight up, which is 40.6% winners. We also see that they have been a 3.1 point underdog on the average and we see that they have lost by an average of only 2.8 ppg. Road Warriors 6 | KillerSports.com The third query, A and rest=0, gives the results of all road games since 1995-96 in which the road team played the day before. Here we see that the unrested road team is 2365-3982, which is 37.3% winners. Also, we see that they have been a 3.9 point underdog on the average and we see that they have lost by an average of 4.2 ppg. Finally, the fourth query, A and rest=0 and p:A, gives the results of all road games since 1995-96 in which the road team played on the road the day before. Here we see that the unrested road team is 1292-2110, which is 38.0% winners. Also, we see that they have been a 3.9 point underdog on the average and we see that they have lost by an average of 3.9 ppg. So, unless the schedule-makers assign more back-to-back games to teams that are expected to be poor, the results indicate that NBA teams are negatively affected when playing on the with no rest. Specifically, since the start of the 1995-96 NBA season, road teams with rest have lost by an average of 2.8 ppg and road teams without rest have lost by an average of 4.2 ppg. Further, the linesmakers have attempted to correct for this, as road teams without rest have been getting an average of 3.9 points whereas rested road teams have only been given an average of 3.1 points. This season there are 188 back-to-back road games which are distributed among the 30 NBA teams. Some teams have been saddled with a large number of back-to-back road games and others have only a few. We can also look at the number of times a team is hosting an opponent that is playing in the second of B2B road games. Clearly, if a particular team hosts a large number of opponents coming in off another road game the previous night that team has an advantage. The number of times a team plays and hosts the second of back-to-back road games are important factors in determining the difficulty of a team’s schedule and thus an important factor in estimating the number of wins they will have over the season. To aid in this investigation, we present a table on the facing page that gives the number of B2B occurrences for each team for the upcoming 2011-12 season for two situations; one is when the team is playing its second road game in two days and the other is when the team is hosting an opponent that is playing its second road game in two days. The Chicago Bulls are 16-0 ATS (+7.8 ppg) since November 30, 2009 as a dog when they are playing in at least their third straight road game. The SDQL text is: team=Bulls and AD and p:A and pp:A and 20091130
2011–2012 BACK-TO-BACK ROAD GAmES (CONTINUED) # of Back-to-Back Road Games 2011-12 Team Playing Hosting Differential ATL 4 7 +3 BOS 7 2 -5 CBC 5 7 +2 CHI 6 4 -2 CLE 3 3 0 DAL 8 7 -1 DEN 5 7 +2 DET 6 4 -2 GSW 9 7 -2 HOU 8 7 -1 IND 2 7 +5 LAC 8 6 -2 LAL 8 6 -2 MEM 5 5 0 MIA 7 2 -5 MIL 5 7 +2 MIN 9 9 0 NJN 4 9 +5 NOR 6 8 +2 NYK 6 10 +4 OKC 4 5 +1 ORL 6 8 +2 PHI 4 2 -2 PHO 7 9 +2 POR 7 7 0 SAC 9 5 -4 SAN 10 4 -6 TOR 8 6 -2 UTH 7 11 +4 WAS 5 7 +2 Looking down the first column we see that the Spurs are the only team this season to play double-digit back-to-back road games. It is relevant to note that are one of the teams that is likely to be adversely affected by playing two road games in two days. The Kings, Timberwolves and Warriors each have nine with the Raptors, Clippers, Rockets and Mavericks with eight each. On the other end of the list, we find that the Indiana Pacers only play TWO back-to-back road games this season. The Cavaliers are right behind with three and they are followed by the Hawks, Nets, Thunder and 76ers, who each have four back-to-back road games this season. The o:B2B column gives the number of times a team is scheduled to host an opponent that is playing the second of back-to-back road games in 2011-12. Obviously, the higher the number in this column, the more favorable a team’s schedule. Here we see that Utah Jazz host eleven teams this season that played on the road the previous day. This is tops in the league. They are followed by the NY Knicks, who get ten opponents that are playing their second road game in as many days. Teams with eight scheduled opponents who are playing the second of back-to-back road games include the Nets, Suns and Timberwolves. So, not only do the Timberwolves host a lot of back-to-back road games, they will play a lot of backto-back road games this season. The unlucky teams are those that host a relatively small number of teams playing their second road game in as many days. The 76ers, Celtics and Heat only get two teams all season that played on the road the previous day. Next we have the Cavs with three and they are followed by the Bulls, Pistons and Spurs, each with only four. The final, right-most column in the table is the difference between the number of times a team hosts the second of B2B road games and the number of times a team plays B2B road games. Clearly, a team with a high positive number has a scheduling advantage and a team with a large negative number has a scheduling disadvantage. The two teams with the highest differential are the Pacers and Nets, each with a differential of plus-five. The Pacers host seven B2B road games but pay only two and the Nets host nine B2B road games, but play only four. The Knicks and the Jazz are close behind with a differential of plus-four. The team with the worst B2B differential this season is the Spurs at minus-six. They play ten back-to-back road games, but host only four. They are following by the Heat and Celtics, both of whom only get two opponents playing a B2B road games while playing seven B2B’ers themselves. These numbers only tell part of the story. Another factor to consider is the level of the opponent a team gets in the second of back-to-back road games. When good teams host poor teams playing the second of back-to-back road games the straight up result of the game is unlikely to be different—the good team was going to win the game anyway. The most effective positive B2B differential includes many games where the fact that the team is hosting the second of back-to-back road games is likely to turn a loss into a win. For example, on 1/24 the Pacers host the Magic. Indiana has a days rest and the Magic played in Boston the previous night. The fact that Orlando is playing the second of back-to-back road games may give the Pacers the edge they need to score a straight up victory. See the article on the next two pages for a complete listing of all back-to-back road games this season. Play Smart. Play Informed. Investigate Back-to-Back road games at KillerSports.com. 2011–2012 NBA Schedule Log | 7
Page 1 and 2: The 2011-12 KillerSports.com NBA Sc
Page 3 and 4: 2011-2012 NBA SCHEDULE OVERVIEW The
Page 5: 2011-2012 NBA OPPONENT BREAKDOWN CO
Page 9 and 10: BACK-TO-BACK ROAD GAmES - HOSTING T
Page 11 and 12: 2011-2012 DAYS REST DISTRIBUTION A
Page 13 and 14: PLAYING FOUR GAmES IN FIVE DAYS (CO
Page 15 and 16: THIRD GAmE IN THREE DAYS 2011-2012
Page 17 and 18: QUICK SDQL OVERVIEW SDQL stands for
Page 19 and 20: The 2011-12 KillerSports.com NBA Sc
Page 21 and 22: ATLANTA HAWKS 2011-12 Schedule DATE
Page 23 and 24: BOSTON CELTICS 2011-12 Schedule DAT
Page 25 and 26: CHARLOTTE BOBCATS 2011-12 Schedule
Page 27 and 28: CHICAGO BULLS 2011-12 Schedule DATE
Page 29 and 30: CLEVELAND CAVALIERS 2011-12 Schedul
Page 31 and 32: DALLAS mAVERICKS 2011-12 Schedule D
Page 33 and 34: DENVER NUGGETS 2011-12 Schedule DAT
Page 35 and 36: DETROIT PISTONS 2011-12 Schedule DA
Page 37 and 38: GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS 2011-12 Sched
Page 39 and 40: HOUSTON ROCKETS 2011-12 Schedule DA
Page 41 and 42: INDIANA PACERS 2011-12 Schedule DAT
Page 43 and 44: LA CLIPPERS 2011-12 Schedule DATE D
Page 45 and 46: LA LAKERS 2011-12 Schedule DATE DAY
Page 47 and 48: mEmPHIS GRIZZLIES 2011-12 Schedule
Page 49 and 50: mIAmI HEAT 2011-12 Schedule DATE DA
Page 51 and 52: mILWAUKEE BUCKS 2011-12 Schedule DA
Page 53 and 54: mINNESOTA TImBERWOLVES 2011-12 Sche
Page 55 and 56: NEW JERSEY NETS 2011-12 Schedule DA
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NEW ORLEANS HORNETS 2011-12 Schedul
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NEW YORK KNICKS 2011-12 Schedule DA
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OKLAHOmA CITY THUNDER 2011-12 Sched
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ORLANDO mAGIC 2011-12 Schedule DATE
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PHILADELPHIA 76ERS 2011-12 Schedule
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PHOENIX SUNS 2011-12 Schedule DATE
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PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS 2011-12 Sched
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SACRAmENTO KINGS 2011-12 Schedule D
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SAN ANTONIO SPURS 2011-12 Schedule
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TORONTO RAPTORS 2011-12 Schedule DA
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UTAH JAZZ 2011-12 Schedule DATE DAY
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WASHINGTON WIZARDS 2011-12 Schedule
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The 2011-12 KillerSports.com NBA Sc
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BOSTON CELTICS PLAY ON TREND ID DES
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CHICAGO BULLS PLAY ON TREND ID DESC
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DALLAS mAVERICKS PLAY ON TREND ID D
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DETROIT PISTONS PLAY ON TREND ID DE
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HOUSTON ROCKETS PLAY ON TREND ID DE
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LA CLIPPERS PLAY ON TREND ID DESCRI
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mEmPHIS GRIZZLIES PLAY ON TREND ID
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mILWAUKEE BUCKS PLAY ON TREND ID DE
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NEW JERSEY NETS PLAY ON TREND ID DE
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NEW YORK KNICKS PLAY ON TREND ID DE
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ORLANDO mAGIC PLAY ON TREND ID DESC
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PHOENIX SUNS PLAY ON TREND ID DESCR
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SACRAmENTO KINGS PLAY ON TREND ID D
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TORONTO RAPTORS PLAY ON TREND ID DE
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WASHINGTON WIZARDS PLAY ON TREND ID
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