NBA Schedule/Log

2011–2012 NBA SCHEDULE OVERVIEW
The 2011-12 NBA season will be a very interesting one. The
league compressed 66 games into 124 days meaning that
each team will play an average of more than one game every
two days during the regular season. For the first time since the 1998-
99 strike season there are times when a team plays for three straight
days. In fact, there are 42 such occurrences and a complete listing of
them is given in this publication. To really understand the difference
between this season an a typical NBA regular season, consider the
following table, which gives the total number of regular season occurrences
of the four-games-in-five days, 5-in-6 and the 5-in-7 and
6-in-8 scheduling situations over the past seventeen NBA seasons.
2011-12 Scheduling Situations
SEASON 4-in-5 5-in-6 5-in-7 6-in-8
1995 90 0 2 0
1996 91 0 4 0
1997 75 0 3 0
1998 218 28 105 14
1999 101 0 5 0
2000 101 0 0 0
2001 106 0 11 0
2002 102 0 3 0
2003 88 0 5 0
2004 90 0 5 0
2005 81 0 0 0
2006 90 0 0 0
2007 78 0 0 0
2008 72 0 0 0
2009 80 1 1 0
2010 68 0 0 0
2011 218 29 98 17
There will be more than three times as many occurrences of a
team playing their fourth game in five days this season than there
was last season – despite the fact that there will be 240 fewer games
played this season than last season. Even more compelling is that
fact that there has been a total of only ONE occurrence of the fivegames-in-seven
days over the past six seasons. This season we get
98 occurrences of this rare scheduling situation. In addition, there
will be 29 games this season in which a team will be playing their
SDQL Hint
To see all the five-games-in-six-days this season, use the
SDQL text:
(rest + p:rest + pp:rest + ppp:rest) = 1
To perform this query yourself, visit the NBA Query page at
www.killersports.com/nba.py/query.
fifth game in six days. Finally, there will be 17 occurrences of the
grueling six-games-in-eight days this season.
Handicappers that are able to understand the ramifications of
this should find the pickings very easy this season.
In addition, there are twenty occurrences of a brutal five-games
in six days stretch this season. This scheduling situation does not
normally occur. The first of these twenty stretches begins on Dec 28th
when the Nuggets play in Utah, They then travel to Portland for a
game on the 29th. They have the 30th off before playing the Lakers
in LA on the 31st, the Lakers at home on the 1st before hosting the
Bucks on the 2nd. Milwaukee plus the points should be a possibility.
Another interesting feature of this year’s NBA schedule is that
the team have been partially “seeded.” In a normal regular season,
each team in the Eastern Conference plays every team in the Western
Conference twice – once at home and once on the road. This
season, however, each team in the Eastern Conference plays only
THREE teams in the Western Conference twice, while playing every
other team in the West only once. So, now the schedule-maker
has a strong influence on the level of difficulty of a team’s schedule.
If you are a team from the Eastern Conference, you would much
rather have two games with the Kings, Timberwolves and Warriors
while playing teams like the Mavs, Lakers and Thunder only once.
Similarly, every Eastern Conference opponent usually plays every
other Eastern Conference team four times during the regular season.
This year, however, there will only be six four-game series. If you
are an Eastern Conference team, you would like the Cavs, Wizards,
Raptors, Pistons, Sixers and Pacers to be the set of teams you have
to play four times.
Clearly, the schedule-makers have much more influence over
the level of difficulty of a team’s schedule this season, than in any
non-strike season.
Astute handicappers will pay attention to these match-ups. For
example, the only three Western Conference teams that the Celtics
will play twice this season are the Lakers, Mavs and Thunder. Ouch.
Similarly, the three Eastern Conference teams that the Thunder were
assigned are the Celtics, Heat and Magic. On the other hand, the
three Eastern Conference team that the Rockets have to play twice
are the Bobcats, Raptors and Wizards. In the same vein, the three
Western Conference teams that the Pacers get twice are the Warriors,
Hornets and Timberwolves. A complete breakdown of these
match-ups is presented in this publication.
Indeed, the NBA should offer a number of terrific investment
opportunities this season for those that are well prepared. NBA
Futures seem vulnerable to anyone that has done their homework.
Besides the level of difficulty of each team’s schedule, a key question
is how are the more “mature” teams like Boston and San Antonio
going to handle the compressed season? Will they put forth a muted
effort during the regular season and save themselves for the playoffs?
This publication will provide an analysis of each team’s 2011-12
NBA Schedule to help NBA Handicappers start the season well
armed with the information they need to win. This type of analysis
is especially helpful when trying to forecast the total number of
wins a team might achieve over the regular season, as NBA Futures
Players do.
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