NBA Schedule/Log

More documents

Recommendations

Info

PLAYING FOUR GAmES IN FIVE DAYS One of many interesting scheduling situations in the NBA is the 4-games-in-5-days situation. Usually, it consists of a set of back-to back games, a day off and another set of back-to-back games. However, in strike years, when the season is compressed, a four-game-in-five-days stretch can include a game, a days rest and then three games in three days. Similarly, there can be three straight games, a days off and then another game. This season there are 218 occurrences of a team playing four games in five days—an average of 7.27 per team over the 66-game season. The handicapper can theorize that the performance of a team playing their fourth game in five days may be compromised because of the scheduling situation. Put simply, the team is tired. The obvious questions an intelligent handicapper will have regarding the four games in five days situation include, “Is the likelihood of a team winning the game reduced by the fact that they are playing their fourth game in five days? If so, by how much? Is the likelihood of a team covering the spread reduced by the fact that they are playing their fourth game in five days? If so, by how much? Is the line adjusted for the fact that a team is playing their fourth game in five days? If so, by how much?” Of course, the answers to these questions may vary greatly from team to team. One might expect that a young, deep team that is in good physical condition might perform better than an older team that relies heavily on its star players when playing their fourth game in five days. However, for the purposes of this analysis we will only examine the league’s results as a whole. Individual team trends when playing their fourth game in five days and when facing a team that playing their fourth game in five days can uncovered using the Sports Data Query Language (SDQL). Now let’s get to the questions posed earlier. To answer them we will use the results of the past seventeen NBA regular seasons. That’s a pool of 19,602 games. The strategy is to look at the league’s results as a whole and then compare them with the league’s results when playing their fourth game in five days. We’ll start by getting the league’s results as a whole based on the site (home vs away). In the NBA, the home team is 11,854-7748 straight up over the past ten seasons winning by an average of 3.3 points as a favorite of 3.4 points. This is a winning percentage of 60.5%. The away team The League’s Results from 1995-96 through 2010-11 12 | KillerSports.com is, of course, just the opposite. They are 7748-11,854 straight up losing by an average of 3.3 points getting an average of 3.4 points. This is a winning percentage of 39.5%. Now that we have the league’s results as a whole, let’s look at just the 4-games-in-5-days results. When an away team is playing their fourth game in five days they are a combined 359-648 straight up over the past seventeen seasons losing by an average of 4.8 points per game. This is a winning percentage of 35.6%. So, from these results we can conclude that the performance of an away team playing their fourth game in five days is reduced. In fact, it is reduced by about 1.5 points because any away team loses by an average of 3.3 ppg but an away team playing their fourth game in five days has lost by an average of 4.8 ppg. The obvious question the handicapper would ask is, “Is this reduction in performance accounted for in the line?” The answer is “not quite.” Over the past ten seasons teams that are on the road and playing their fourth game in five days have been – on the average – a 4.5 point underdog. So, the linesmakers adjust the line somewhat when a team is playing their fourth game in five days and they are on the road. Now let’s look at the home team that is playing their fourth game in five days. Over the past ten seasons, the league is a cumulative 281-243 in this situation winning by an average of 1.8 points while being favored by an average of 2.1 points. A record of 181-129 has a winning percentage of 53.6%. So, it appears that playing their fourth game in five days is detrimental to a team’s performance even if they are at home because all home teams have won 60.5% of their games by an average of 3.3 points in the same time span. We can summarize our results in a table, shown on the bottom of the facing page. Now let’s take a look at all the 4-in-5 situations scheduled for the upcoming 2011-12 season. The schedule-makers assign the four-in-five situation as necessary without regard to an equitable distribution amongst the 30 NBA teams. If a team has a relatively small number of four-in-five situations it is an advantage and if a team hosts a relatively large number of opponents that are playing their fourth game in five days it is an advantage. Of course, if a team plays a large number of 4-in-5 situations and faces a small number of teams playing their fourth game in five days it is a scheduling disadvantage. This information is especially useful when playing HOME W/L record Winning % SUm ATS Rec ATSm Line All Home 11854-7748 60.5% (+3.3) 9516-9708-378 (-0.1) -3.4 4th-in-5, Home 281-243 53.6% (+1.8) 236-276-12 (-0.2) -2.1 AWAY W/L record Winning % SUm ATS Rec ATSm Line All Away 7748-11854 39.5% (-3.3) 9708-9516-378 (+0.1) +3.4 4th-in-5, Away 359-648 35.6% (-4.8) 487-496-24 (-0.3) +4.5
PLAYING FOUR GAmES IN FIVE DAYS (CONTINUED) NBA futures because a team with a scheduling advantage in 4-in-5 situations can be expected to win more games than the linesmakers forecast and teams with a scheduling disadvantage can be expected to win fewer games than forecast. The adjacent table gives the number of occurrences of the fourthgames-in-five-days scheduling situation over the 2011-12 season for each team and their opponent. The first column simply gives the team name. The second column gives the number of occurrences of a four-games-in-five-days scheduling situation for each team. For example, we can see that Atlanta plays nine games this season that are their fourth game in five days. The third column gives the number of times each team faces an opponent that is playing their fourth game in five days. For example, we see that the Hawks get ten opponents this season who are playing their fourth game in five days. The fourth column gives the difference between the two with the higher number indicating a more favorable schedule. This season, the Charlotte Bobcats have to play fourteen games in which they are playing their fourth game over the last five days. This is the most in the league. The Grizzlies have the second most at twelve and they are followed by the Spurs with eleven. On the other hand, the Hornets and Timberwolves only have four 4-in-5 stretches this season. Even bigger disparities occur in the third column. The New York Knicks get fourteen opponents this season that are playing their fourth game in five days, whereas the Raptors, Cavs and Clippers each get only two each. The final column gives the net difference between playing and hosting a stretch of 4-games-in-5-days. The Knicks have the highest positive differential at plus-nine. They are followed closely by the Hornets at plus eight. The two teams with the worst differential are the Grizzlies and the Bobcats, both at minus-eight. As the 2011-12 results come in for this and other scheduling situations presented in this book, astute handicappers will be able to see which teams are affected the most by the frenetic pace. These handicappers will have a significant advantage over those who handicap this season in the same manner that they handicapped previous NBA seasons. The Sports Data Query Language will allow a complete investigation of these situations over the internet for free. Don’t miss out on any of it, get on KillerSports.com and re- The Sports Data Query Language (SDQL) on-line discussion group is at: search the NBA like a professional. For more information, visit KillerSports.com. 2011-12 # of 4-Games-in-5 Days TEAm #4-in-5 #Opp 4-in-5 +/- ATL 9 10 1 BOS 7 4 -3 CBC 14 6 -8 CHI 9 8 -1 CLE 8 2 -6 DAL 8 7 -1 DEN 7 5 -2 DET 9 10 1 GSW 8 8 0 HOU 6 12 6 IND 10 6 -4 LAC 9 2 -7 LAL 5 7 2 MEM 12 4 -8 MIA 6 6 0 MIL 5 9 4 MIN 4 5 1 NJN 8 9 1 NOR 4 12 8 NYK 5 14 9 OKC 6 8 2 ORL 5 9 4 PHI 5 11 6 PHO 6 7 1 POR 6 7 1 SAC 6 7 1 SAN 11 5 -6 TOR 7 2 -5 UTH 6 7 1 WAS 7 9 2 http://groups.google.com/group/SportsDataBase 2011–2012 NBA Schedule Log | 13
Page 1 and 2: The 2011-12 KillerSports.com NBA Sc
Page 3 and 4: 2011-2012 NBA SCHEDULE OVERVIEW The
Page 5 and 6: 2011-2012 NBA OPPONENT BREAKDOWN CO
Page 7 and 8: 2011-2012 BACK-TO-BACK ROAD GAmES (
Page 9 and 10: BACK-TO-BACK ROAD GAmES - HOSTING T
Page 11: 2011-2012 DAYS REST DISTRIBUTION A
Page 15 and 16: THIRD GAmE IN THREE DAYS 2011-2012
Page 17 and 18: QUICK SDQL OVERVIEW SDQL stands for
Page 19 and 20: The 2011-12 KillerSports.com NBA Sc
Page 21 and 22: ATLANTA HAWKS 2011-12 Schedule DATE
Page 23 and 24: BOSTON CELTICS 2011-12 Schedule DAT
Page 25 and 26: CHARLOTTE BOBCATS 2011-12 Schedule
Page 27 and 28: CHICAGO BULLS 2011-12 Schedule DATE
Page 29 and 30: CLEVELAND CAVALIERS 2011-12 Schedul
Page 31 and 32: DALLAS mAVERICKS 2011-12 Schedule D
Page 33 and 34: DENVER NUGGETS 2011-12 Schedule DAT
Page 35 and 36: DETROIT PISTONS 2011-12 Schedule DA
Page 37 and 38: GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS 2011-12 Sched
Page 39 and 40: HOUSTON ROCKETS 2011-12 Schedule DA
Page 41 and 42: INDIANA PACERS 2011-12 Schedule DAT
Page 43 and 44: LA CLIPPERS 2011-12 Schedule DATE D
Page 45 and 46: LA LAKERS 2011-12 Schedule DATE DAY
Page 47 and 48: mEmPHIS GRIZZLIES 2011-12 Schedule
Page 49 and 50: mIAmI HEAT 2011-12 Schedule DATE DA
Page 51 and 52: mILWAUKEE BUCKS 2011-12 Schedule DA
Page 53 and 54: mINNESOTA TImBERWOLVES 2011-12 Sche
Page 55 and 56: NEW JERSEY NETS 2011-12 Schedule DA
Page 57 and 58: NEW ORLEANS HORNETS 2011-12 Schedul
Page 59 and 60: NEW YORK KNICKS 2011-12 Schedule DA
Page 61 and 62: OKLAHOmA CITY THUNDER 2011-12 Sched
Page 63 and 64:
ORLANDO mAGIC 2011-12 Schedule DATE
Page 65 and 66:
PHILADELPHIA 76ERS 2011-12 Schedule
Page 67 and 68:
PHOENIX SUNS 2011-12 Schedule DATE
Page 69 and 70:
PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS 2011-12 Sched
Page 71 and 72:
SACRAmENTO KINGS 2011-12 Schedule D
Page 73 and 74:
SAN ANTONIO SPURS 2011-12 Schedule
Page 75 and 76:
TORONTO RAPTORS 2011-12 Schedule DA
Page 77 and 78:
UTAH JAZZ 2011-12 Schedule DATE DAY
Page 79 and 80:
WASHINGTON WIZARDS 2011-12 Schedule
Page 81 and 82:
The 2011-12 KillerSports.com NBA Sc
Page 83 and 84:
BOSTON CELTICS PLAY ON TREND ID DES
Page 85 and 86:
CHICAGO BULLS PLAY ON TREND ID DESC
Page 87 and 88:
DALLAS mAVERICKS PLAY ON TREND ID D
Page 89 and 90:
DETROIT PISTONS PLAY ON TREND ID DE
Page 91 and 92:
HOUSTON ROCKETS PLAY ON TREND ID DE
Page 93 and 94:
LA CLIPPERS PLAY ON TREND ID DESCRI
Page 95 and 96:
mEmPHIS GRIZZLIES PLAY ON TREND ID
Page 97 and 98:
mILWAUKEE BUCKS PLAY ON TREND ID DE
Page 99 and 100:
NEW JERSEY NETS PLAY ON TREND ID DE
Page 101 and 102:
NEW YORK KNICKS PLAY ON TREND ID DE
Page 103 and 104:
ORLANDO mAGIC PLAY ON TREND ID DESC
Page 105 and 106:
PHOENIX SUNS PLAY ON TREND ID DESCR
Page 107 and 108:
SACRAmENTO KINGS PLAY ON TREND ID D
Page 109 and 110:
TORONTO RAPTORS PLAY ON TREND ID DE
Page 111 and 112:
WASHINGTON WIZARDS PLAY ON TREND ID
show all

NBA Schedule/Log

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?