Assessment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Medium and Heavy ...

capacity and with high truck volumes, it is possible that increased truck travel as a result of the
rebound effect from higher fuel efficiency could have an impact on delay that is not insignificant.
For estimation of change in marginal cost: The increase in rural and urban Class 8 truck VMT is 1.9 to
8.7 billion VMT (58 percent of the previously estimated 3.2 to 15 billion VMT increase) and 1.3 to
6.3 billion VMT (42 percent of the 3.2 to 15 billion VMT increase), respectively. 23 Using Parry‘s
marginal congestion costs of $0.037 per-mile in rural areas and $0.168 per-mile in urban areas, the
total increase in cost ranges from $0.3 billion to $1.4 billion (e.g. $0.3 billion = 1.9 billion rural
VMT * $0.037 per-mile + 1.3 billion urban VMT * $0.168 per-mile).
(vii) Safety Impacts
Key Question: If regulations reduce truck performance and/or reduce or increase truck VMT,
what are the potential implications for safety
Background: Section (1)(ii) describes how the demand for long-haul trucking will increase if fuel
economy regulations effectively reduce long-haul truck operating costs. Truck traffic is estimated
to increase between 3.2 and 15 billion VMT (an increase of 2.2 - 10.5 percent), depending on the
technology alternatives and assumed demand elasticities. Literature shows that truck traffic has
a direct correlation with injuries and fatalities. Estimates of increased truck traffic can be
multiplied by the injury and fatality crash rates to estimate the range of potential deaths and
injuries caused by the increase in travel.
The concurrent white paper produced by ERG suggests that the impacts of fuel economy
regulations on truck performance will be minimal, if any, and therefore performance impacts on
safety are not considered further.
The safety impacts of changes in truck traffic can also be valued using marginal safety cost
estimates from the literature. The marginal cost that one combination truck has on the safety of
the population describes the cost, measured in property damage, medical costs, value of a
statistical life, etc. that a single additional combination truck imposes on the rest of the traffic
already on the roadway. The marginal safety cost of combination trucks has been estimated by
Parry to be $0.018 per mile in urban areas and $0.034 per mile in rural areas. 24 Generally, the
marginal costs are higher in rural areas than in urban areas because the speeds are higher and
there is a higher likelihood of a larger speed differential, a key determining factor in highway
accident severity and likelihood.
Findings:
For estimation of increase in injuries and fatalities: Recent data for highway crashes indicate crash
rates for truck tractors with trailers of 2.4 per 100 million VMT for fatal crashes and 51.1 per 100
23
Federal Highway Administration, Highway Statistics, 2009 and Bureau of Transportation Statistics,
Pocket Guide to Transportation, January 2009.
24
Parry, Ian, ―How Should Heavy-Duty Trucks Be Taxed‖, Resources for the Future, April 2006. See
Table 1 for his benchmark parameter values for mileage-related marginal external costs.
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