Assessment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Medium and Heavy ...

eduction; logical fuel economy technologies to achieve the reduction; improved fuel economy;
increased truck purchase price; resulting operating cost (including savings from fuel economy
improvements and increased capital cost from increased purchase price); and self-price and
cross-price elasticities.
Scenarios: Three scenarios are outlined below:
Base case: Total affected truck volume is 142,706 million VMT and total affected rail volume is
1,852 billion ton-miles; 12 truck fuel economy is 5.59 mpg 13 and average rail fuel economy is
436 gallons per ton-mile; 14 truck fuel consumption is 25,500 million gallons and rail fuel
consumption is 4,250 million gallons (based on estimates of travel and fuel economy); total
truck operating costs are $1.73 per-mile ($247 billion nationally = $1.73/mile * 142,706 million
miles), including $0.70 fuel-oil related costs (fuel costs and fuel tax costs) and $0.206 per-mile
truck and/or trailer lease or purchase payments; 15 and the current purchase price of a Class 8
tractor-trailer is $100,000. 16
Alternative 1, 17.8 percent reduction in fuel use: In alternative 1, a set of technologies are
implemented to achieve a 17.8 percent reduction in fuel consumption. The selection of
technologies and this target reduction were based on the forthcoming Northeast States Center
for a Clean Air Future (NESCCAF) and International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT)
report 17 that outlines technologies, their impacts and their costs. The technologies include
best-available aero-kit (fully aerodynamic mirrors, cab side extenders, integrated sleeper cab
roof fairings, aerodynamic bumper, full fuel tank fairings, side skirt fairings, and boat tails),
wide single base tires, aluminum wheels, idle reduction, and improved lubricants. The
technology improves fuel economy from 5.59 to 6.80 mpg at a cost of $22,930 per vehicle.
Accounting for decreases in operating cost and increased capital cost, the net per-mile
operating cost will be reduced to $1.65, $0.57 of which is fuel-oil related costs, down from
$0.70 in the base case, and $0.25 of which is truck/trailer payments, up from $0.21 in the base
case. The total national operating cost is $236 billion (142,706 vehicle-miles * $1.65/mile). The
chosen range of self-price elasticity of truck demand with respect to truck price is between -
0.5 and -1.5 and the cross-price elasticity of rail demand with respect to truck price is between
0.35 and 0.59. These ranges were chosen to include the majority of the estimates while
excluding the outliers.
Alternative 2, 38.6 percent reduction in fuel use: In alternative 2, a set of technologies, again
based on the ICCT report, are implemented to achieve a 38.6 percent reduction in fuel
12
Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Pocket Guide to Transportation, January 2009.
13
Energy Information Administration, ―Annual Energy Outlook, 2009,‖ March 2009.
14
Association of American Railroads, ―Freight Railroads and Greenhouse Gas Emissions,‖ June 2008.
15
American Transportation Research Institute, An Analysis of the Operational Costs of Trucking, December
2008.
16
Anthony Grezler, ―US Heavy Duty Vehicle Fleets Technologies for Reducing CO 2 : An Industry
Perspective,‖ Volvo Powertrain Corporation, August 23, 2007.
17
Northeast States Center for a Clean Air Future, Southeast Research Institute, TIAX, LLC., and
International Council on Clean Transportation, Reducing Heavy-Duty Long Haul Truck Fuel Consumption
and CO 2 Emissions, September 2009.
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