Climate variability, climate change and water resource strategies for ...

Climate variability, climate change and water resource strategies for small municipalities
5.3.2 Leliefontein
The SAWS observed data for winter shows much higher precipitation levels than the GCM observed
data. However, summer precipitation is more comparable, with the SAWS data being slightly higher
than HADAM A2, CSIRO A2 and CSIRO B2 and lower than ECHAM A2 (Figure 13). ECHAM A2
gets the seasonality of the precipitation incorrect. HADAM A2 displays a precipitation decrease in
both seasons, whereas CSIRO A2, CSIRO B2 and ECHAM A2 all indicate an increase, this being
notable in the case of CSIRO A2 and CSIRO B2 (Figure 14). Hence, it is evident that the directional
response is unclear.
LELIEFONTEIN
120
100
80
60
40
DJF mm/month
JJA mm/month
20
0
CSIRO
A2 OBS
CSIRO
B2 OBS
ECHAM
A2 OBS
HADAM
A2 OBS
SAW S
OBS.
Figure 13: Comparison between GCM observed and SAWS observed precipitation for
Leliefontein (in mm/mo)
LELIEFONTEIN
120
100
80
DJF mm/month
60
JJA mm/month
40
20
0
CSIRO
A2
CSIRO
B2
ECHAM
A2
HADAM
A2
SAWS
OBS.
Figure 14: Comparison between GCM future and SAWS observed precipitation for
Leliefontein (in mm/mo)
18