Climate variability, climate change and water resource strategies for ...

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Climate variability, climate change and water resource strategies for small municipalities 5.3.6 Pofadder All GCM control runs capture the rainfall seasonality represented in the SAWS observed (Figure 21). HADAM A2 slightly over-predicts the observed summer rainfall while CSIRO A2 and CSIRO B2 under-predict the observed. ECHAM A2’s summer rainfall is most akin to the SAWS observed. All GCMS have a tendency to slightly under-represent the observed winter precipitation. Summer rainfall increases are suggested in all future GCM scenarios (Figure 22), most notably in the ECHAM A2 model. Winter rainfall decreases are suggested by HADAM A2 and increases by the other three scenarios. POFADDER 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 CSIRO A2 OBS CSIRO B2 OBS ECHAM A2 OBS HADAM A2 OBS SAW S OBS. DJF mm/month JJA mm/month Figure 21: Comparison between GCM observed and SAWS observed precipitation for Pofadder (in mm/mo) POFADDER 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 DJF mm/month JJA mm/month CSIRO A2 CSIRO B2 ECHAM A2 HADAM A2 SAW S OBS. Figure 22: Comparison between GCM future and SAWS observed precipitation for Pofadder (in mm/mo) 22
Climate variability, climate change and water resource strategies for small municipalities 5.3.7 Van Wyksvlei The HADAM A2 control run slightly over-predicts summer rainfall, while ECHAM A2 slightly under-predicts (Figure 23). The CSIRO A2 and CSIRO B2 more notably under-predict summer rainfall. Winter rainfall is similar in all scenarios, but with HADAM A2 being slightly too low. The ECHAM A2, CSIRO A2 and CSIRO B2 models suggest a notable future increase in summer and winter rainfall, while in HADAM A2 the changes are negligible (Figure 24). VAN WYKSVLEI 120 100 80 60 40 DJF mm/month JJA mm/month 20 0 CSIRO A2 OBS CSIRO B2 OBS ECHAM A2 OBS HADAM A2 OBS SAW S OBS. Figure 23: Comparison between GCM observed and SAWS observed precipitation for Van Wyksvlei (in mm/mo) VAN WYKSVLEI 120 100 80 60 40 DJF mm/month JJA mm/month 20 0 CSIRO A2 CSIRO B2 ECHAM A2 HADAM A2 SAWS OBS. Figure 24: Comparison between GCM future and SAWS observed precipitation for Van Wyksvlei (in mm/mo) 23
Page 1 and 2: Climate variability, climate change
Page 5 and 6: Contents Executive summary i Acknow
Page 27: Climate variability, climate change
Page 79 and 80:
Climate variability, climate change
Page 81 and 82:
Criteria Scale Additonal Yield / sa
Page 83 and 84:
Page 85 and 86:
Page 87:
show all

Climate variability, climate change and water resource strategies for ...

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?