Hydrological modelling of the Zambezi catchment for ... - TU Delft

TABLE OF CONTENTS
4.2.2 Routing in spreadsheet .................................................................................................................. 57
4.2.2.1 Muskingum routing................................................................................................................. 57
4.2.2.2 Reservoir routing: Kariba ........................................................................................................ 61
4.2.2.3 Reservoir routing: Itezhitezhi .................................................................................................. 62
4.2.2.4 Reservoir routing: Cabora Bassa ............................................................................................. 63
4.2.2.5 Reservoir routing: Nyasa ......................................................................................................... 64
5 ERROR- & SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS .............................................................................................. 67
5.1 ERRORS .................................................................................................................................................. 67
5.2 M ODEL RESULTS ..................................................................................................................................72
5.3 GENERALISED LIKELIHOOD UNCERTAINTY ESTIMATOR (GLUE)............................................... 81
5.4 IMPLEMENTATION OF GLUE FOR THE ZAMBEZI-SCRIPT............................................................... 86
5.4.1 Determination of dominant parameters...................................................................................... 88
5.4.2 Objective function and likelihood measure................................................................................ 91
5.5 GLUE RESULTS .................................................................................................................................... 91
5.5.1 GLUE for parameter uncertainty................................................................................................ 92
5.5.2 GLUE for input uncertainty.......................................................................................................... 97
6 GRAVITY MEASUREMENTS AND HYDROLOGY..................................................................103
6.1 BACKGROUND ....................................................................................................................................103
6.2 RELATION SURFACE MASS TO GRAVITY..........................................................................................105
6.3 ERROR SOURCES IN GRACE DATA .................................................................................................106
6.4 DIRECT ESTIMATION OF HYDROLOGY FROM GRACE DATA.......................................................108
7 CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS..................................................................................113
REFERENCES ....................................................................................................................................................119
2.1 LITERATURE........................................................................................................................................119
2.2 DATA...................................................................................................................................................123
APPENDIX 1: DATA TRANSFORMATIONS IN IDRISI........................................................ 127
APPENDIX 2: FAO SOIL UNITS DESCRIPTION............................................................... 153
APPENDIX 3: ZAMBEZI SCRIPT..................................................................................... 157
APPENDIX 4: MODEL RESULTS..................................................................................... 161
APPENDIX 5: GLUE SCRIPT......................................................................................... 167
APPENDIX 6: ROUTING MODEL .................................................................................... 173
APPENDIX 7: GRACE RESULTS ................................................................................... 177
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