Rail Freight Corridor NL - CZ final version - International ...

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Rail Freight Corridor NL - CZ The figure 6 presents the regional importance. It can be observed that the region of the Provincie Zuid-Holland, which includes the port of Rotterdam, is the most important region for traffic to/from the Czech Republic, with a share of 46%. Stredni Morava 18% Moravskoslezsko 13% 18 Final report Jihovychod 11% Praha 9% Severovychod 31% Stredni Cechy 14% Jihozapad 4% Severozapad 0% Picture 1.2 - Regional detail Czech Republic Figure 1.6 - Importance of regions Czech Republic Source: NEAC - NEA & SUDOP (constructred data for year 2005) R20080142
Rail Freight Corridor NL - CZ Final report R20080142.doc 1.2.3 Forecast freight flows 2020 1.2.3.1 1. Trade model methodology The country-to-country trade forecasts are based on an agent-based simulation model that forecasts global trade in dollars between country pairs, and a trend model that determines the flow in tonnes, disaggregated into several commodity groups. The methodology behind both models will now be described. Global trade model Global trade flows in dollars are difficult to forecast. There are many macro-economic models that attempt to predict the state of the economy in future years, but they are often very data intensive and focus more on the equilibrium state rather than the economy’s path towards this equilibrium. The trade model developed by NEA attempts to be more practical and dynamic, requiring only historical trade data and variables such as GDP and population to obtain reasonable forecasts for countries’ total imports and exports. Input data (historical value of trade between country pairs) is gathered from the EU Comext and the UN Comtrade trade databases. There can be multiple sources for a specific trade flow (reported as imports and/or exports, from two different databases). If that is the case, these time series are consolidated into one, using a smoothing algorithm. The algorithm removes outliers, fills in gaps, and limits annual growth, so that one definite time series is obtained. When that is done for all different country pairs, the base origin-destination matrices can be constructed. Presently, the last “known” year is 2006, with trade data going back to 1995. The global trade model is an agent-based simulation model. This means that countries are modelled as autonomous individuals, existing as separate entities within the system. They each have their own variables and behaviour. The model simulates one year at a time, starting at the base year (2006) with the capability of continuing indefinitely. The import and export forecasts are initially produced on a national level (without interaction between countries), taking into account the size of the economy and historical trends in the country’s trade. Additionally, trade growth is subject to various constraints such as a limited trade deficit. After the new import and export levels are determined for each country in the system, the agents interact with each other to restore balance (else exports might grow faster than imports, or the other way around). The model places more emphasis on historical quantitative data analysis as opposed to qualitative analysis. Although qualitative information about countries’ economies can be taken into account (for example, by using predetermined import and/or export growth rates) this is generally not done. The effect this would have on the model as a whole is usually quite insignificant, especially in the long run. Trend model The output of the global trade model (financial trade flows) is used to constrain the disaggregated trade flows in tonnes between country pairs. The commodity grouping used is the three-digit NST/R coding. Trade flows are already grouped accordingly in the EU Comext and UN Comtrade trade databases. Similar to the total trade flows that are used as input for 19
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