Rail Freight Corridor NL - CZ final version - International ...

Rail Freight Corridor NL - CZ
In the rail transport there seems to be a good balance in the volumes in both directions which is
important for the competitive position.
Direction (from – to) Road Rail Development modal
share of Rail
in percent points
2005 - 2020
NL -> CZ 66% 32% -3%
CZ -> NL 44% 54% -4%
both directions 58% 40% -4%
Table 1.2 - Modal split forecast 2020 (relative shares)
Source: NEA
It can be observed that the forecast assumes that the share of rail changes slightly; on the
direction from NL to CZ there is a change from 35% in 2005 to 32% in 2020 in the market share
of rail. In the other direction also the share decreases with 4% from 58% in 2005 to 54% in
2020.
The following table shows the differences in the rail volumes between 2005 and 2020.
2005 2020 Difference
NL -> CZ 578 1,108 530
CZ -> NL 581 956 375
both directions 1,160 2,064 904
Table 1.3 - Rail volumes 2005 and 2020 (*1,000 tons)
Source: NEA
The potential based on current market volume of rail in transit traffic is already an increase of
78% compared to the situation in 2005.
However, we already know that the market share of 2005 is an under estimate if we also apply
this on 2020, because of changing market conditions which are in favour of rail transport.
For example the railways will become faster and more competitive due to liberalisation and
increasing interoperability. On the other side road haulage is becoming more and more difficult
(e.g. congestion, shortage of drivers, external costs etc.).
Therefore the figures in the table for rail volumes of 2020 must be seen as conservative
forecasts for the rail market. It is rather likely that the actual share in 2020 will be higher
because we expect that rail mode will be more competitive in 2020 compared to the situation in
2005. Therefore instead of a growth of 78% also an increase of 100% or more could be realistic.
26 Final report
R20080142