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© 1994-2009 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved. http://www.cnki.net

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© 1994-2009 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved. http://www.cnki.net

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© 1994-2009 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved. http://www.cnki.net

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© 1994-2009 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved. http://www.cnki.net

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1 Easterlin , Richard A. and Eileen M. Crimmins. (1985) . The Fertility Revolution : A Supply - Demand Analysis.
The University of Chicago Press , Chicago and London.
2 . . ,2008 ;4 :112
3 . . :, 2007
4 Thompson , W. S. (1929) . Population. The American Journal of Sociology , 34 , No. 6 May , 959 - 975.
5 Landry , A. (1934) . La Revolution Demographique. IN ED Press , 1982.
6 Notestein , F. W. (1945) . Population : The Long View. In Food for the World , ed. by T. W. Schultz. The Uni2
versity of Chicago Press.
7 Blacker , C. P. (1947) . Stages in Population Growth. The Eugenics Review , Vol. 39 , No. 3.
8 United Nations. (2007) . World Population Prospects : The 2006 Revision.
9 Leibenstein , H. (1954) . A Theory of Economic Demographic - Development , Princeton UniversityPress , Prince2
ton , New Jersey.
10 Leibenstein , H. (1957) . Economic Backwardness and Economic Growth. Wiley , New York
11 Leibenstein , H. (1981) . Economic Decision Theory and Fertility Behavior. Population and Development Review ,
No. 3 : 381 - 400.
12 Becker , G. S. (1960) . An Economic Analysis of Fertility. In Demographic and Economic Change in Developed
© 1994-2009 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved. http://www.cnki.net

1 9
Countries : A Conference of the Universities - National Bureau Committee for Economics. NBER , Princeton Uni2
versity Press , Princeton , New Jersey.
13 Schultz , T. W. (1973) . The Value of Children : An Economic Perspective. Journal of Political Economy (supple2
ment) : S2 - 13.
14 ,. . ,2002 ;5
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24 . 2006 (2007 2 ) .
Fertility Revolution in China
Abstract : This article firstly brings forward a theoretical model on the dynamic structure of fertility revolution , and then
divides the fertility revolution into three phases in accordance with its patterns of dynamic mechanisms : the phase driven
by mortality change , the phase driven by fertility preference change and the phase driven by fertility cost control. Social
and economic development is the fundamental driving force for China’ s fertility revolution since 1970s , even though
pushed forward greatly by the government’s family planning policy. Especially since 1992 , fertility decline in China has
shown up the nature of fertility revolution. Finally , this article concludes that China’s fertility transition has ended and
entered a phase of low fertility driven by fertility cost control.
Keywords : Fertility revolution ; Fertility transition ; Family planning
Author : Li Jianmin is Profrssor , Institute of Population and Development Research , Nankai University.
(: :2008 - 12)
© 1994-2009 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved. http://www.cnki.net