Development of the Sawmill Industry in Russia

Future Development - Roundwood Export Duties
Main Implications
• Roundwood export from Russia will end by 2009/(2011) if duty programme is
implemented as planned.
• It will create a 20 million m 3 sub
gap to Nordic/Baltic wood markets and 30-50 million m 3 sub
gap in Northern China.
• Potential to increase local wood harvest in the Nordics/Baltics is limited and mobilisation
of additional wood volumes require/have led to significant price increases.
• Nordic/Baltic wood markets will be increasingly tight in the future and as a result some of
the existing forest industry capacity will be at risk.
• Wood prices have increased sharply this year both in Sweden and Finland partly driven by
preparatory measures to increasing duties.
• Roundwood duties will result in improved cost-competitiveness of Western Russia as a
production platform compared to Nordics/Baltics.
• For the Nordic forest product industry, duties will mean increased wood costs, decreased
cost-competitiveness and likely capacity shutdowns.
• Russian logging companies that are dependent on log exports will struggle to remain
profitable.