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Downstream substitutes Mt 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 World scrap consumption 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020f Scrap ratios (2010) and forecast for China North America Europe Other Asia Others China 2010 China 2015f China 2020f 0 20 40 60 80 Cumulative scrap consumption Scrap reserve Sources: Roskill, Cronimet, SMR Roskill Approachable. Independent. Expert.
Summary The developmental path of China and other emerging nations cannot be inferred from the past experiences of other countries Underlying determinants include modernisation, urbanisation and industrialisation, which are often but not necessarily correlated The effects of indirect trade must be taken into account, and require an analysis of comparative advantage and structural factors In the long term, global demand must equal production, but on a local basis, regional shifts in production and consumption must be considered Substitutes, both in terms of end uses and of material inputs, affect the relative trends of related commodities Roskill Approachable. Independent. Expert.
Page 1 and 2: Determinants of chrome ore and stai
Page 3 and 4: Outline Fundamentals of chrome ore
Page 5 and 6: Relationship between crude steel, s
Page 7 and 8: Predicting commodity use in emergin
Page 9 and 10: Application to chromium Chromium in
Page 11 and 12: Faster growth appears to result in
Page 13 and 14: Forces driving commodity use Indust
Page 15 and 16: A potential scenario for China’s
Page 17 and 18: A possible scenario for China’s f
Page 19 and 20: Accounting for the effects of trade
Page 21 and 22: Predictors of growth of export-orie
Page 23 and 24: Application to prediction of chrome
Page 25 and 26: Similar analysis must be applied to
Page 27 and 28: Production and consumption trends d
Page 29 and 30: Expected shift of ferrochrome produ
Page 31: Upstream substitutes % of stainless
Page 35: STEEL ALLOYS - MINOR METALS - INDUS

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