Morning Coffee with GEPL Capital

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Morning Coffee with GEPL Capital
Date: Feb 22, 2013
Market Update
Indices Close % Chg % YTD
Indian Markets
Sensex 19,325.36 (1.62%) -0.52%
Nifty 5,852.25 (1.53%) -0.89%
Global Markets
DJIA 13,880.62 (0.34%) 5.93%
Nasdaq 3,131.49 (1.04%) 3.71%
FTSE 6,291.54 (1.62%) 6.68%
Emerging Markets
HangSeng 22,906.67 (1.72%) 1.10%
Nikkei 11,309.13 (1.39%) 8.79%
BSE Sectoral
Indices
Latest % Chg % YTD
Auto 10760.55 (1.50%) (5.83%)
Banks 13831.92 (2.52%) (3.58%)
Capital Goods 9661.22 (2.07%) (11.10%)
Comm & Teck 3772.99 (1.06%) 10.07%
Con. Durables 7147.49 0.04% (7.41%)
FMCG 5757.36 (1.38%) (2.69%)
Healthcare 7957.64 (0.48%) (2.15%)
IT 6550.44 (0.63%) 15.24%
Metals 9612.13 (3.23%) (13.17%)
Oil & Gas 9007.41 (1.77%) 5.74%
Power 1823.92 (1.45%) (8.39%)
Realty 2084.98 (2.33%) (1.22%)
Midcap 6607.44 (1.64%) (7.11%)
Smallcap 6557.61 (1.74%) (11.14%)
Bulk Deals (BSE)
Date Scrip Name Client Name Buy/Sell Quantity Price
21-Feb-13 Yuvraaj Hygiene MUDRA FINAN-
CIAL SERVICES
LTD
21-Feb-13 Suryanagri Fin NEZONE BIS-
CUITS PRIVATE
LIMITED
Bulk Deals (NSE)
Sell 500,000 6.81
Buy 149,850 25.8
Date Scrip Name Client Name Buy/Sell Quantity Price
21-Feb-13
21-Feb-13
Kingfisher Airlines
Ltd.
Shriram Trans Fin
Co. Ltd
SUNIL CAPITAL
CAPITAL & SECU-
RITIES PVT LTD
NEWBRIDGE
INDIA INVEST-
MENTS II LIMITED
BUY 4868711 11.46
Sell 226,50,000 715.15
Fund Flows (`bn) Latest MTD YTD
Flls 10.97 213.08 464.84
MFs 0.47 217.67 608.59
Corporate News
• Over a period of three years, DLF plans to sale 25-30 million sq ft of
projects and generate EBITDA of more than Rs 7700 crore.
• TPG Capital has raised USD 305mn by selling about half of its stake
in commercial vehicle financier Shriram Transport Finance Co Ltd.
• PwC to help COAL India to develop pact for supply of imported coal.
• IOB, says that post capital infusion, government holding in our bank
will increase from 69% to 74%. Once the capital is infused, banks
CAR will be slightly below 8%. IOB's, 95-96% of the restructured
portfolio is currently performing well.
• The Securities Appellate Tribunal adjourned hearing on RIL’s appeal
against market regulator Sebi till March 14.
• ONGC is in talks to buy Videocons’s 10% stake in a giant gas field
off Mozambique.
• Hike in package prices cannot be ruled out: Dish TV.
• Exide gets CCI nod to buy stake in ING Vysya Life.
• Federal Bank announced a 0.25% reduction in its base rate, or the
minimum rate of lending, at 10.20%.
• IOB eyes Rs 1,000 cr through issue of equity shares to govt.
• Smaller lenders to recover Kingfisher dues by March 31.
• NTPC to float Rs 14,000-cr tenders for 1,980 MW project next fiscal.
• Tata Chemicals UP unit output falls on weak demand.
Economy News
• Budget 2013-14: Cement-makers demand reduction in excise duty
to 6-8% from the existing 12%.
• DoT announces third round of 2G GSM auction for the airwaves that
were freed following cancellation of telecom licences by Supreme
Court in February last year and were not put for auction.
• India,may increase import taxes for a 2nd time this year as it seeks
to narrow a widening current-account deficit, curbing demand for
bullion in jewelry and investment
• Credit Suisse lowered its forecast for India's GDP growth in the current
financial year to 5.3% from 5.7% earlier due to "ongoing aggressive"
fiscal tightening.
• IRDA brings standardisation in health insurance
• Banks require Rs 2.7 lakh cr capital for Basel-3: Crisil
• Foreign investors lose appetite for FCCBs
Global News
• China Home Prices Rise in Most Cities Renewing Curb Concerns
• Singapore GDP Growth Beats Initial Estimate as Asia Recovers
• ING Australia May Sell Record $2.1 billionn Mortgage-Backed
Bonds
GEPL Capital Pvt Ltd

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Morning Coffee with GEPL Capital
Date: Feb 22, 2013
Debt Market Snapshot
Market Turnover ` bn % Chg
BSE 19.58 7.29
NSE 132.95 29.91
Derivatives (NSE) 1640.76 59.80
Market Breadth Adv Dec A/D
BSE 904 1924 0.47
NSE 316 1202 0.26
Forex Rates Latest % Chg % YTD
Rs / US$ 54.33 0.45 1.88
Euro / US $ 0.76 0.61 (2.03)
Yen / US$ 93.11 (0.52) 17.37
Government Security Market:
• The Inter-bank call money rate traded in the range of 7.75% to 8.00% on Thursday,
ended at 8.00%.
• Total Borrowings From RBI's Repo with banks Taking Rs.1123100 mn on Thursday
Vs. Rs.1222700 mn on Wednesday .
• The benchmark 8.15% GOI 2022 Closed at 7.8116% on Thursday Vs.7.8041% on
Wednesday .
Global Debt Market:
U.S. 10-year yields approached the highest level since April on speculation Federal Reserve
minutes to be released today will provide details on when it plans to start trimming Treasury
purchases.
10 Year Benchmark Technical View:
10 year yield likely to move in the range of 7.79% - 7.83% level on Friday.
Bonds in Primadary Market :
Particulars Latest Previous Chg(bps)
5 Year GOI Bond 7.82% 7.83% 0.01
10 Year GOI Bond 7.81% 7.80% (0.01)
15-Year GOI Bond 7.99% 7.97% (0.02)
Bonds Coupon Maturity Min Quantum (in Rs.)
PFC Bond 7.38%7.54% 10& 15 Year 5000
Issue Close on March 15th 2013
Call Money (WAR) 7.91% 7.92% 0.01
CBLO (WAR) 7.71% 7.56% (0.15)
US 10 Year 1.98% 2.04% 0.06
For Further Bond Details Please Contact GEPL Debt Desk
Crude Oil (in $/bl) 95.22 96.66 1.44
Inflation (Monthly) 6.62% 6.62% -
Derivatives Snapshot
Nifty Spot
Nifty Futures
Nifty Futures
Prem. / Disc
Nifty Futures
Basis
Nifty Futures
Change in OI
Nifty Futures
Volume (` in
cr.)
Total Market F&O Open
Interest (` in bn)
Nifty Open Interest
(OI) PCR
Nifty Volume
PCR
NSE VIX
Current 5852.25
5853.45 1.20 30.25 19446550 8276.23
1.01 0.95 16.94
Previous 5943.05
5963.85 20.80 28.95 19029100 4268.94
1.06 0.96 15.60
change (90.80)
(110.40) (19.60) 1.30 417450 4007.29
(0.05) (0.01) 1.34
% Change (1.53) (1.85) 2.19 93.87
8.59
Snapshot
• From the options data, 600 call has added more than 10lakh shares suggesting that level of 6000 is likely to act as positional resistance for Nifty futures.
• The open interest put call ratio for Nifty futures stood at 1.01 vs. 1.06 levels.
• The IV’s stood in between 13% to 18% with NSE VIX index ending 8.59% higher at 16.94 levels.
• Long positions were witnessed in stocks like CIPLA, SUNPHARMA.
• Short positions were witnessed in stocks like TATASTEEL, RELINFRA, LT, ICICIBANK.
FII Derivatives Statistics
Buy (` in Cr.) Sell (` in Cr.) Open Interest at the end of the
day (` in Cr.)
Open Interest as on 10-fEB-
2011 (` in Cr.)
Change in open
Interest (` in Cr.)
Net Buy / Sell (`in Cr.)
INDEX FUTURES 1950.60 2436.33 10898.02 11334.21 (436.18) (485.73)
INDEX OPTIONS 17629.97 17491.89 53013.87 51130.14 1883.73 138.08
STOCK FUTURES 2544.80 2462.16 30320.35 30748.93 (428.58) 82.64
STOCK OPTIONS 1473.69 1326.02 3466.69 3195.47 271.22 147.67
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Morning Coffee with GEPL Capital
Date: Feb 22, 2013
Technical Snapshot
Trading Calls for the day
Nifty Futures breaches crucial support of 5850
Key Highlights
• Nifty Futures closed at 5853 which is 111 points lower than its previous
close of 5964.
• Nifty Futures opened with downward price gap of 35 points at 5929 and
sharp sell off was seen forming intraday low at 5847.
• A long bearish candle breaching 5850 is indicating short term trend reversal
in the market suggesting strong bear grip.
• A high volumes accompanied a current fall is indicating major breakdown
of 5800 levels in the days to come.
• Immediate support level for Nifty Futures is placed at 5800 and a bounce
back is expected from this level.
• Any bounce back may face strong resistance in the range of 5900 - 5950
where again selling pressure may be seen in Nifty Futures.
• A previous weekly close was seen at 5893 and current weekly close below
this level is indication of major breakdown on weekly chart.
• As long as Nifty trades above 5750, the current intermediate trend is positive
.
• The intraday resistance levels for Nifty are placed at 5890 & 5920 where
as the intraday support levels are placed at 5820 & 5780 respectively.
Stock Buy / Sell Segment Lot Size
Type of Call Reco. Price Stop Loss Target 1 Target 2
IDFC Sell Futures 2000
One day 157 161 153 -
Union Bank Sell Futures 2000
One day 231 235 227 -
Technical Calls for Retail Desk
Sr. No Date Action Company Reco. Price Stop Loss Target 1 Target 2 CMP Remarks
1 13-Feb-13 Buy IndusInd Bank 446 420 476 428.1 Exit at 430.5 Call Closed
2 21-Feb-13 Buy Reliance Fut 875.5 858 901 855 SL Triggered at 858 Call Closed
3 21-Feb-13 Sell (ST) Yes Bank Fut 507 515 490 485 Profit Booked at 493 Call Closed
4 8-Feb-13 Buy LT 1550 CE 23 10 40 45 2
5 8-Feb-13 Buy ITC 300PE 5.05 3 9 11 6.75 Profit Booked at 7.45 Call Closed
6 21-Feb-13 Buy Nifty 5900 CE 41.5 35 52 55 34.05 SL Triggered Call Closed
Open Positions Buy 4 & Sell 0
*- Revised Stop Loss
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Morning Coffee with GEPL Capital
Date: Feb 22, 2013
Commodities Snapshot
Commodity Month Trend Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2 Trading calls for the day
Gold Apr Bearish 29600 29400 29850 30000 -
Silver Mar Bearish 53300 52000 54450 55000 -
Crude Oil Feb Bearish 5080 5040 5125 5160
Natural Gas Feb Bullish 178 176 182 185 -
Copper Feb Bearish 425 422 429 432
Nickel Feb Sideways 900 879 920 932 -
Aluminium Feb Bearish 111 109.60 113 114 -
Lead Feb Bearish 125 124 127 129 -
Zinc feb bearish 113 112 115 117 -
Gold $ Spot Bearish 1570 1555 1592 1600 -
Silver $ Spot Bearish 28.30 28 29 29.45 -
*Figures in INR unless indicated otherwise
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by the Research Desk of M/s GEPL Capital Pvt. Ltd. and is meant for use of the recipient only and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported
or copied or made available to others. It should not be considered to be taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to support any security. The information contained herein is obtained and collated
from sources believed reliable and we do not represent it as accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. The opinion expressed or estimates made are as per the best judgment as
applicable at that point of time and are subject to change without any notice. GEPL Capital Pvt. Ltd. along with its associated companies/ officers/employees may or may not, have positions in, or support
and sell securities referred to herein.
GEPL Capital Pvt Ltd