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EQUITY | F&O | DP | COMMODITIES | MUTUAL FUNDS | INSURANCE | DEBT | IPOs | PMS | WMS | LAS<br />
<strong>Morning</strong> <strong>Coffee</strong> <strong>with</strong> <strong>GEPL</strong> <strong>Capital</strong><br />
Date: December 09, 2011<br />
Market Update<br />
Indices<br />
Indian Markets<br />
Close % Chg % YTD<br />
Sensex 16,488.24 (2.30%) (19.61%)<br />
Nifty<br />
Global Markets<br />
4,943.65 (2.35%) (19.41%)<br />
DJIA 11,997.70 (1.63%) 3.63%<br />
Nasdaq 2,596.38 (1.99%) (2.13%)<br />
FTSE<br />
Emerging Markets<br />
5,483.77 (1.14%) (7.05%)<br />
HangSeng 19,107.81 (0.69%) (17.05%)<br />
Nikkei 8,664.58 (0.66%) (15.29%)<br />
BSE Sectoral<br />
Indices<br />
<strong>GEPL</strong> <strong>Capital</strong> Pvt Ltd<br />
Latest % Chg % YTD<br />
Auto 8719.07 (1.63%) (14.81%)<br />
Banks 10266.84 (2.71%) (23.27%)<br />
<strong>Capital</strong> Goods 9644.1 (4.40%) (37.44%)<br />
Comm & Teck 3451.62 (1.04%) (14.71%)<br />
Con. Durables 5708.18 (1.55%) (10.21%)<br />
FMCG 4038.44 (1.80%) 9.62%<br />
Healthcare 5984.72 (0.37%) (11.13%)<br />
IT 5782.01 (0.46%) (15.28%)<br />
Metals 10500.33 (3.15%) (40.32%)<br />
Oil & Gas 8188.78 (2.98%) (22.76%)<br />
Power 1960.14 (3.02%) (34.41%)<br />
Realty 1598.04 (3.80%) (44.05%)<br />
Midcap 5669.7 (1.77%) (27.34%)<br />
Smallcap 6108 (1.61%) (36.84%)<br />
Bulk Deals (BSE)<br />
Date Scrip Name Client Name Buy/Sell Quantity Price<br />
08-Dec-11 Bharat Forge Ltd. Janus Investment<br />
Fund A/C Janus<br />
Contrarian Fund<br />
08-Dec-11 Kajaria Ceramics<br />
Ltd.<br />
Bulk Deals (NSE)<br />
Jwalamukhi Investment<br />
Holdings<br />
Sell 1,900,000 263.00<br />
Buy 1,050,000 103.04<br />
Date Scrip Name Client Name Buy/Sell Quantity Price<br />
08-Dec-11 Apollo Hospitals<br />
Enterprise Ltd.<br />
08-Dec-11 Raj Television<br />
Network Ltd.<br />
PCR Investments<br />
Ltd.<br />
Buy 1,031,000 679.67<br />
S R Investments Buy 150,000 67.70<br />
Fund Flows (`bn) Latest MTD YTD<br />
Flls 20.50 87.25 262.43<br />
MFs 41.27 112.63 2,576.19<br />
Corporate News<br />
• BS TransComm bagged orders worth Rs.2.44 bn for construction of<br />
transmission line, tower and substations related to power projects in<br />
different parts of the country.<br />
• ONGC’s overseas subsidiary, ONGC Videsh is looking to ship crude oil<br />
from Syria to India after the EU imposed an embargo on oil imports from<br />
the African nation.<br />
• Bharti Airtel signed a 2 year agreement <strong>with</strong> handset maker Samsung,<br />
under which the telecom major will have exclusive distribution rights in 17<br />
African countries for select Samsung products.<br />
• The CCEA gave go-ahead for Disney's Indian unit to increase shareholding<br />
in UTV Software Communications to 100% from current 50.4%.<br />
• The Mumbai service tax department has frozen some of the bank accounts<br />
of Air India and Kingfisher Airlines for non-payment of the levy<br />
to the tune of Rs.2.20 bn.<br />
• Essar Oil announced commissioning of a new Isomerisation unit at its<br />
Vadinar refinery that will help it produce Euro IV grade petrol of high<br />
octane rating and almost zero sulphur content.<br />
• Japan's Shionogi & Co has procured an injunction order against Lupin,<br />
barring it from further selling a generic version of Fortamet, a drug used<br />
to treat diabetes, in the US.<br />
Economy News<br />
• Indian Railways registered a shortfall of over Rs 19.97 bn in earnings till<br />
October this fiscal due to various factors like traffic disruptions by agitations<br />
and fog and restriction on mining activities in some states.<br />
• Food inflation fell sharply to 6.60% for the week ended 26 th November,<br />
2011 vs 8% for the week ended 19 th November, 2011. Inflation in overall<br />
primary articles category stood at 6.92% during the week 26 th November,<br />
2011 as against 7.74% for the week ended 19 th November, 2011.<br />
• Telecom operators added 7.79mn mobile subscribers in October 2011,<br />
taking the total number of telephone users in the country to 914.59 mn.<br />
• India’s per capita income registered a growth of 12.8% during the FY02-<br />
FY11 period growing to Rs.54,000 in FY11 from Rs.18,450 in FY02.<br />
Global News<br />
• Indonesia's central bank sold its nine-month SBI debt at a 5.03858%<br />
rate, lower than 5.22412% in last month's auction, absorbing liquidity<br />
more than expected.<br />
• Jobless claims in the US dropped by 23,000 to 381,000 in the week<br />
ended 3 rd December, 2011, the lowest since February, 2011.<br />
• The ECB cut interest rates by 25bps to 1% to counter the twin threats of<br />
recession and deflation in the Eurozone.<br />
• Eurozone leaders are likely to agree to give the IMF €150 bn in bilateral<br />
loans to use as a firewall in the debt crisis.
EQUITY | F&O | DP | COMMODITIES | MUTUAL FUNDS | INSURANCE | DEBT | IPOs | PMS | WMS | LAS<br />
<strong>Morning</strong> <strong>Coffee</strong> <strong>with</strong> <strong>GEPL</strong> <strong>Capital</strong><br />
Date: December 09, 2011<br />
Debt Market Snapshot<br />
Market Turnover ` bn % Chg<br />
BSE 19.95 (35.50)<br />
NSE 100.09 (5.25)<br />
Derivatives (NSE) 1301.49 16.60<br />
Market Breadth Adv Dec A/D<br />
BSE 842 1910 0.44<br />
NSE 333 1151 0.29<br />
Forex Rates Latest % Chg % YTD<br />
Rs / US$ 51.72 0.00 12.09<br />
Euro / US $ 0.7457 (0.25) (0.30)<br />
Yen / US$ 77.35 (0.50) (5.21)<br />
Particulars Latest Previous Chg(bps)<br />
5 Year GOI Bond 8.39% 8.47% 0.08<br />
10 Year GOI Bond 8.52% 8.59% 0.07<br />
16-Year GOI Bond 8.77% 8.82% 0.05<br />
Call Money (WAR) 8.60% 8.59% (0.01)<br />
CBLO (WAR) 8.50% 8.48% (0.02)<br />
US 10 Year 2.03% 2.10% 0.07<br />
Crude Oil (in $/bl) 100.72 101.28 0.56<br />
Inflation (Monthly) 9.73% 9.73% -<br />
Derivatives Snapshot<br />
Nifty Spot<br />
FII Derivatives Statistics<br />
Nifty Futures Nifty Futures<br />
Prem. / Disc<br />
Nifty Futures<br />
Basis<br />
Nifty Futures<br />
Change in OI<br />
Buy (` in Cr.) Sell (` in Cr.) Open Interest at the end of the<br />
day (` in Cr.)<br />
Government Security Market:<br />
• Inter-bank call money rate traded in the range of 8.50% -8.70% on Thursday ended<br />
at 8.70%.<br />
• Total Borrowings From RBI's Repo <strong>with</strong> banks Taking Rs. 8718000 mn on Thursday<br />
Vs. Rs. 933700 mn on Wednesday.<br />
• The benchmark 8.79% GOI 2021 bond closed at 8.5189% on Thursday Vs 8.5944%<br />
on Wednesday.<br />
Global Debt Market:<br />
US Treasuries snapped yesterday’s biggest gain in almost a month before the US announces<br />
the size of four debt auctions next week and European officials meet to address<br />
the region’s debt crisis.<br />
10 Year Benchmark Technical View:<br />
10 year yield likely to move in the range of 8.50-57 level on Friday.<br />
Bonds on Sale :<br />
11.80% TATA STEEL PERPETUAL<br />
BOND<br />
11.40% TATA MOTOR PERPETUAL<br />
BOND<br />
11.35% TATA MOTOR FINANCE LTD<br />
PERPETUAL BOND<br />
Nifty Futures<br />
Volume (` in<br />
cr.)<br />
Total Market F&O Open<br />
Interest (` in bn)<br />
Open Interest as on 10-fEB-<br />
2011 (` in Cr.)<br />
Coupon Maturity Min Quantum<br />
(in Rs.)<br />
11.80% PERPETUAL<br />
CALL OPTION 18-MARCH-2021<br />
11.40% PERPETUAL<br />
CALL OPTION 2-June-2021<br />
11.35% PERPETUAL<br />
CALL OPTION 23-Nov-2020<br />
Nifty Open Interest<br />
(OI) PCR<br />
Change in open<br />
Interest (` in Cr.)<br />
Nifty Volume<br />
PCR<br />
Current 4943.65<br />
4956.60 12.95 19.40 23899900 14222.32<br />
1.21 1.10 28.58<br />
Previous 5062.60<br />
5086.10 23.50 18.70 25128750 11550.85<br />
1.31 0.89 26.46<br />
change (118.95)<br />
(129.50) (10.55) 0.70 (1228850) 2671.47<br />
(0.10) 0.21 2.12<br />
% Change (2.35) (2.55)<br />
(4.89)<br />
23.13<br />
8.01<br />
Snapshot<br />
• From the options data, aggressive writing of 5000 calls and simultaneous unwinding of put at the same strike suggests that level of 5000 is likely to act as positional<br />
resistance for Nifty futures.<br />
• The open interest put call ratio for Nifty futures stood at 1.21 vs. 1.31 levels.<br />
• The IV’s stood in between 27% to 34% <strong>with</strong> NSE VIX index ending 8.01% higher at 28.58 levels.<br />
• Long positions were witnessed in stocks like PIRAMALHEALTH, SUNPHARMA, PNB, MTNL.<br />
• Short positions were witnessed in stocks like LUPIN, ASHOKLEY, IDEA, SESAGOA.<br />
Net Buy / Sell (`in Cr.)<br />
INDEX FUTURES 1687.71 2768.25 12589.83 13804.29 (1214.46) (1080.55)<br />
INDEX OPTIONS 20221.05 20118.32 46656.92 46869.90 (212.99) 102.73<br />
STOCK FUTURES 1167.41 1480.81 25546.71 26135.55 (588.84) (313.40)<br />
STOCK OPTIONS 455.95 456.62 714.05 702.72 11.33 (0.67)<br />
<strong>GEPL</strong> <strong>Capital</strong> Pvt Ltd<br />
1000000<br />
1000000<br />
500000<br />
6% IRFC (Tax FREE)2015 6% 8-March-2015 100000<br />
IDFC LONGTERM INFRASTRUCTURE<br />
BONDS<br />
L&T INFRA BONDS<br />
9% ISSUE CLOSES ON 16TH<br />
DEC.2011.<br />
10000<br />
9% ISSUE CLOSES ON 24TH DEC.11 5000<br />
NSE VIX
EQUITY | F&O | DP | COMMODITIES | MUTUAL FUNDS | INSURANCE | DEBT | IPOs | PMS | WMS | LAS<br />
<strong>Morning</strong> <strong>Coffee</strong> <strong>with</strong> <strong>GEPL</strong> <strong>Capital</strong><br />
Date: December 09 2011<br />
Technical Snapshot<br />
Trading Calls for the day<br />
Key Highlights<br />
• Nifty Futures closed at 4957 which is 129points lower from its previous close of5086<br />
• Nifty Futures opened at 5049 and formed intraday high of 5073 but a sharp reversal was<br />
seen losing 135 points on intraday.<br />
• Nifty Futures is now resting on the upper end of the price gap near 4940 and the lower end<br />
is placed at 4880 which is likely to be tested in coming trading sessions.<br />
• Closing below 5000 supported by higher trading volumes, is indicating a reversal of the<br />
current bounce back (started from 4632 up to 5135 which is 503 points).<br />
• Now the next support levels are placed at 4890 and 4840 which are 50% and 61.8% retracement<br />
levels.<br />
• If Nifty Futures opens <strong>with</strong> downward price gap then sharp sell of is expected where it is<br />
likely to breach 4900 levels.<br />
• Any Intraday bounce back is expected to face strong resistance at 4930 and 5000 respectively.<br />
• The intermediate trend of Nifty Futures will remain in downward direction till the weekly<br />
close is below 5275 mark.<br />
• The intraday resistance levels for Nifty Futures are placed at 4930 & 5000 and support<br />
levels are placed at 4890 & 4840 respectively.<br />
Stock Segment Type of call Reco. Price Stop Loss Buy / Sell Target 1 Target 2<br />
Dabur Futures One Day 97 95 Buy 99 -<br />
Neyveli Lignite Futures One Day 73.50 75.50 Sell 71.50 -<br />
Technical Calls for Retail Desk<br />
Trend Reversed in Nifty Futures as closing is seen below 5000<br />
Sr. No Date Action Company Reco. Price Stop Loss Target 1 Target 2 CMP Remarks<br />
1 25/11/2011 Buy (D) Maruti 900 Put 24.5 10 35 45 9.5<br />
2 29/11/2011 Buy (D) PFC 160 Put 4.5 8 11 3.4<br />
3 30/11/2011 Buy (D) ICICI Bnk Bear Spread 19 10 35 45 11.8<br />
4 2-Dec-11 Buy (ST) LNT Cash 1323 1290 1356 1389 1260.3 Exit @ 1320 Call closed<br />
5 5-Dec-11 Buy (D) Nifty 4900 Put 63 60* 95 105 108.25 Part profit booked @ 86 Remaining booked @ 99.5 Call closed<br />
6 7-Dec-11 Buy (D) ICVRCL Infr 40 Call 1.15 0.45 2 2.5 0.5<br />
7 8-Dec-11 Buy (D) Axis Bnk 1000 Put 23 10 40 50 32<br />
8 8-Dec-11 Sell (ST) Aban Fut 343.4 367 319 293 342.2<br />
9 8-Dec-11 Sell (ST) Ashok Leyland Fut 26 27.1 25 24 25.75<br />
10 8-Dec-11 Sell (ST) Maruti Fut 978 1015 941 904 974.5<br />
11 8-Dec-11 Buy (D) Nifty 4800 Put 63 60* 90 100 76 Part profit booked @ 79 Rev SL 60<br />
12 8-Dec-11 Sell (ST) Cairn Fut 316.75 328 305 294 312<br />
<strong>GEPL</strong> <strong>Capital</strong> Pvt Ltd<br />
Open Positions Buy 6 & Sell 4 *- Revised Stop Loss
EQUITY | F&O | DP | COMMODITIES | MUTUAL FUNDS | INSURANCE | DEBT | IPOs | PMS | WMS | LAS<br />
<strong>Morning</strong> <strong>Coffee</strong> <strong>with</strong> <strong>GEPL</strong> <strong>Capital</strong><br />
Date: December 09, 2011<br />
Commodities Snapshot<br />
Commodity Month Trend Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2 Trading calls for the day<br />
Gold February Sideways Down 28900 28800 29250 29350 -<br />
Silver March Sideways 55500<br />
54500 57400 58300 Sell at 56800 stop 57500 Target 55600<br />
Crude Oil December Sideways Down 5090 5020 5230 5280 Sell at 5190 stop 5250 Target 5110<br />
Natural Gas December Sideways 179 176 186 189 Buy at 180 stop 177 Target 185<br />
Copper February Sideways 403 399 412 416 -<br />
Nickel December Sideways 930 920 963 975 -<br />
Aluminum December Sideways 107 106 109.5 111 -<br />
Lead December Sideways Up 107.5 106 110.5 111.5 -<br />
Zinc December Sideways 103 102 104.8 106 -<br />
Gold $ Spot Sideways 1695 1682 1718 1728 -<br />
Silver $ Spot Sideways 30.90 30.10 32.80 33.50 -<br />
*Figures in INR unless indicated otherwise<br />
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by the Research Desk of M/s <strong>GEPL</strong> <strong>Capital</strong> Pvt. Ltd. and is meant for use of the recipient only and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported<br />
or copied or made available to others. It should not be considered to be taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to support any security. The information contained herein is obtained and collated<br />
from sources believed reliable and we do not represent it as accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. The opinion expressed or estimates made are as per the best judgment as<br />
applicable at that point of time and are subject to change <strong>with</strong>out any notice. <strong>GEPL</strong> <strong>Capital</strong> Pvt. Ltd. along <strong>with</strong> its associated companies/ officers/employees may or may not, have positions in, or support<br />
and sell securities referred to herein.<br />
<strong>GEPL</strong> <strong>Capital</strong> Pvt Ltd
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