Daily2011_05_13___English_version.pdf - Banca Intesa Beograd

REGIONIndexCountry / RegionValuePreviousChangeYTDCrobex Hrvatska2.209,292.208,33SBITOPSlovenija 764,77767,18SOFIXBugarska442,73443,29BETRumunija5.648,81 5.667,36DJ Stoxx Balkan 50 Balkan611,41612,73Source: Bloomberg0,04% 4,66%-0,31% -10,06%-0,13% 22,18%-0,33% 7,22%-0,22% 2,65%CROBEXSBITOP60003000500025004000200030002000crobex15001000sbi201000500002.01.08 02.06.08 02.11.08 02.04.09 02.09.09 02.02.10 02.07.10 02.12.10003.01.08 03.06.08 03.11.08 03.04.09 03.09.09 03.02.10 03.07.10 03.12.10SOFIXBET21001200017001300900sofix10000800060004000bet-c500200010001.01.08 01.06.08 01.11.08 01.04.09 01.09.09 01.02.10 01.07.10 01.12.10003.01.08 03.06.08 03.11.08 03.04.09 03.09.09 03.02.10 03.07.10 03.12.101450DJ Stoxx Balkan 5012501050850650dj balkan45025005.11.2007 05.03.2008 05.07.2008 05.11.2008 05.03.2009 05.07.2009 05.11.2009 05.03.2010 05.07.2010 05.11.2010 05.03.2011Economic growth in Bulgaria, Romania and Serbia is expected to accelerate next year, Greece's EFG Eurobank said on Thursday."The most recent high frequency indicators [in Bulgaria] in the first two months of the year [2011] point to a continuation of theexports-led recovery. In addition, early signals of recovery from the domestic demand side have shown up," the Greek bank said inthe April issue of its "New Europe Economics & Strategy" research paper. Maintain strong performance throughout 2011 is the keychallenge arising in Romania, EFG Eurobank said. "Secondly, there are risks related to the domestic growth outlook. Even ifheadline GDP numbers turn out to be in line with the budget forecast, if this is led by external demand it may not yield the requiredamount of tax revenues because only domestic demand can yield VAT," the report read. (Source: Bloomberg)International investors view a sovereign default by a euro-area nation as more likely than not with more than four-fifths bettingGreece will eventually fail to pay off its debt. Eighty-five percent of those surveyed this week said Greece probably will default, withmajorities predicting the same fate for Portugal and Ireland, which followed Greece in seeking European Union-led bailouts, a newBloomberg Global Poll shows. The outlook for all three countries deteriorated since January. The pessimism underscores howinvestors remain unconvinced that European policy makers can prevent the euro-area’s first default even as they look to beef upGreece’s 110 billion-euro rescue package ($156 billion). The cost of insuring against a Greek default reached a record this week asinvestors increased bets the country won’t be able to make good on its borrowing. Credit default swaps on Greek debt reached anall-time high 1,371 basis points on May 9, the same day the country’s two-year bond yield closed at a record 25.6 percent. (Source:Bloomberg)4