EQECAT Model Submission - Florida State Board of Administration

The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection MethodologyGeneral Standards5. Provide the following information related to changes in the model from thepreviously accepted submission to the initial submission this year:A. Model Changes1. A summary description of changes that affect the personal or commercialresidential loss costs or probable maximum loss levels,The following significant changes were made to the model between thepreviously accepted submission (EQECAT Florida Hurricane Model 2011a)and the current submission (EQECAT Florida Hurricane Model 2013a):1. The probabilistic hurricane database was regenerated to be consistent with theNational Hurricane Center’s HURDAT data set as of May 14, 2012.2. The simulation time period has been doubled from 150,000 years to 300,000years. Also, nearly identical events have been merged, reducing the number ofcases in the stochastic set from 47,315 to 32,032 events affecting the UnitedStates Mainland.3. The resolution of the time stepping in the windfield calculation has beenincreased from 15-minutes to 5-minutes.4. The ZIP Code database has been updated to March 2012.5. The mitigation measures have been updated.6. The financial model has been updated to use discrete calculations instead ofnumerical integration for the computation of insured loss.2. A list of all other changes, andAll model changes have an impact on personal and commercial residentialloss costs and probable maximum loss levels.3. The rationale for each change.1. The probabilistic hurricane database was regenerated to be consistent with the latestavailable HURDAT data set at the time of the initial submission. This update satisfies therequirements set forth in Standard M-1.2. The current version uses a simulation time period that spans 300,000 years, whereasthe previous model covered 150,000 years. This change allows better sampling of rareevents by making it possible to increase the number of samples by twofold. As part ofthis process, the stochastic storm set used in the simulation was optimized such thatnearly identical events (based on landfall location, storm parameters, and resulting windpatterns) were merged into a single representative case with its frequency as the sum ofthe merged events.26