EQECAT Model Submission - Florida State Board of Administration

The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection MethodologyTABLE OF CONTENTS2011 STANDARDSPageGENERAL STANDARDS ......................................................................... 12G-1 Scope of the Computer Model and Its Implementation ............................................................ 12G-2 Qualifications of Modeling Organization Personnel and Consultants ................................... 31G-3 Risk Location ................................................................................................................................ 42G-4 Independence of Model Components ........................................................................................ 44G-5 Editorial Compliance ................................................................................................................... 45METEOROLOGICAL STANDARDS ........................................................ 46M-1 Base Hurricane Storm Set ........................................................................................................... 46M-2 Hurricane Parameters and Characteristics ............................................................................... 48M-3 Hurricane Probabilities ................................................................................................................ 53M-4 Hurricane Windfield Structure .................................................................................................... 56M-5 Landfall and Over-Land Weakening Methodologies ................................................................ 61M-6 Logical Relationships of Hurricane Characteristics ................................................................ 64VULNERABILITY STANDARDS .............................................................. 65V-1 Derivation of Vulnerability Functions ........................................................................................ 65V-2 Derivation of Contents and Time Element Vulnerability Functions ....................................... 76V-3 Mitigation Measures ..................................................................................................................... 81ACTUARIAL STANDARDS ...................................................................... 89A-1 Modeling Input Data ..................................................................................................................... 89A-2 Event Definition ............................................................................................................................ 99A-3 Modeled Loss Cost and Probable Maximum Loss Considerations ...................................... 100A-4 Policy Considerations ............................................................................................................... 104A-5 Coverages ................................................................................................................................... 109A-6 Loss Output ................................................................................................................................ 112STATISTICAL STANDARDS ................................................................. 119S-1 Modeled Results and Goodness-of-Fit .................................................................................... 119S-2 Sensitivity Analysis for Model Output ..................................................................................... 124S-3 Uncertainty Analysis for Model Output ................................................................................... 126S-4 County Level Aggregation ........................................................................................................ 128S-5 Replication of Known Hurricane Losses ................................................................................. 129S-6 Comparison of Projected Hurricane Loss Costs .................................................................... 1307