Jean Abraham - Shadac

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Non-Group Premium Data and ConstructionCBOGMSIM(Gruber)RAND COMPAREHBSM(LEWIN)HIPSM(URBAN)ExpectedspendingFactor-basedapproach usinginformation on age,sex, health,experience, andstate.Age-health statusspending distributionfrom MEPS andapplied to CPS.Age-health status riskpools and estimatespending from MEPS forthose reportingindividual coverage.Predict spendingand apply ratingpractices (age, sex,health status).Predicted spendingamong those in nongroupmarket. Modelbased on age, sex,health status, and“typical” rating rules.Loading fee forbaseline29% Fixed load of 15%;Varying loadcomponent equal to30% of averageunloaded non-groupcost, based on ageintervalYes(details not available)40% Yes(details not available)State-specificinformation/adjustmentsYes Yes Yes(approximated)YesYes
Examples of ACA Provisions Modeled• Creation of Exchanges• Premium and cost-sharing subsidies forExchange-based plans• Employer shared responsibility requirements• Medicaid expansion• Individual mandate
Page 1 and 2: Developing Projections for HealthRe
Page 3 and 4: Welcome and Introductions• Lynn B
Page 5 and 6: Featured SpeakerDanielle HolahanPro
Page 7 and 8: Predicting the Effects of PPACA:A C
Page 9: Questions Addressed Today• What a
Page 12 and 13: Methodology• Conducted a comprehe
Page 14 and 15: Data Infrastructure: Individuals an
Page 16 and 17: Model Comparison: Population and Em
Page 18 and 19: Data Infrastructure: PremiumsESI Pr
Page 22 and 23: How are Policies Simulated?Establis
Page 24 and 25: Simple Example: Elasticity• Avail
Page 26 and 27: Approaches to Modeling Behavior•
Page 28 and 29: Behavior of FirmsCBOGMSIM(Gruber)RA
Page 30 and 31: Comparing Estimates from Various Mo
Page 32 and 33: Potential Questions to Ask• Polic
Page 34 and 35: Concluding Remarks• Microsimulati
Page 36 and 37: New York State Exchange Planning:Us
Page 38 and 39: New York’s Use of Simulation Mode

Jean Abraham - Shadac

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