Jean Abraham - Shadac

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How are Policies Simulated?Establish baseline scenario to reflect‘status quo’ regarding premiums andcoverage distribution.Model the behavioral responses ofindividuals and employers to a policychange(s) to arrive at new scenario.Using coverage status information from new scenario,update premiums and other information to estimate outputfor subsequent years.
Approaches toModeling Behavioral Responses• Elasticity-Based Approach– CBO, Gruber, and Lewin– Utilizes findings from empirical health economics and health servicesresearch literatures• Studies on individuals’ price-sensitivity of take-up of coverage– Marquis and Long (1994)– Blumberg, Nichols, and Banthin (2001)• Studies of employers’ price-sensitivity with respect to offering andspending on health insurance– Gruber and Lettau (2004); Gruber and McKnight (2001)» Estimate how changes in the “tax-price” of health insurance affect employerprovision
Page 1 and 2: Developing Projections for HealthRe
Page 3 and 4: Welcome and Introductions• Lynn B
Page 5 and 6: Featured SpeakerDanielle HolahanPro
Page 7 and 8: Predicting the Effects of PPACA:A C
Page 9: Questions Addressed Today• What a
Page 12 and 13: Methodology• Conducted a comprehe
Page 14 and 15: Data Infrastructure: Individuals an
Page 16 and 17: Model Comparison: Population and Em
Page 18 and 19: Data Infrastructure: PremiumsESI Pr
Page 20 and 21: Non-Group Premium Data and Construc
Page 24 and 25: Simple Example: Elasticity• Avail
Page 26 and 27: Approaches to Modeling Behavior•
Page 28 and 29: Behavior of FirmsCBOGMSIM(Gruber)RA
Page 30 and 31: Comparing Estimates from Various Mo
Page 32 and 33: Potential Questions to Ask• Polic
Page 34 and 35: Concluding Remarks• Microsimulati
Page 36 and 37: New York State Exchange Planning:Us
Page 38 and 39: New York’s Use of Simulation Mode

Jean Abraham - Shadac

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