Jean Abraham - Shadac

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Comparing Estimates from Various Models• Very challenging• Reasons– Differences in data infrastructure or modelingapproach– Reference period varies• “Implemented today” vs. 2014 vs. 2016– Results are stated differently• Likely multiple factors driving differences
• DataPotential Questions to Ask– Beyond adjusting for demographics and health status ofmy state population, in what other ways can a model becustomized to reflect our state’s health care marketenvironment?– What is the lowest level of geography that microsimulationmodels can capture?
Page 1 and 2: Developing Projections for HealthRe
Page 3 and 4: Welcome and Introductions• Lynn B
Page 5 and 6: Featured SpeakerDanielle HolahanPro
Page 7 and 8: Predicting the Effects of PPACA:A C
Page 9: Questions Addressed Today• What a
Page 12 and 13: Methodology• Conducted a comprehe
Page 14 and 15: Data Infrastructure: Individuals an
Page 16 and 17: Model Comparison: Population and Em
Page 18 and 19: Data Infrastructure: PremiumsESI Pr
Page 20 and 21: Non-Group Premium Data and Construc
Page 22 and 23: How are Policies Simulated?Establis
Page 24 and 25: Simple Example: Elasticity• Avail
Page 26 and 27: Approaches to Modeling Behavior•
Page 28 and 29: Behavior of FirmsCBOGMSIM(Gruber)RA
Page 32 and 33: Potential Questions to Ask• Polic
Page 34 and 35: Concluding Remarks• Microsimulati
Page 36 and 37: New York State Exchange Planning:Us
Page 38 and 39: New York’s Use of Simulation Mode

Jean Abraham - Shadac

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