pdf - BALTEX

Fifth Study Conferenceon BALTEXKultuurivaraKuressaare, Saaremaa, Estonia4 - 8 June 2007Conference Programme

Fifth Study Conference on BALTEX, 4-8 June 2007, Kuressaare, Saaremaa, EstoniaConference Programme - OverviewSunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday FridayBegin: 8:30Registration 8:00 to 10:00Session 2a Session 3aSession 2aSession 4Session 2b Session 3bBreak: 10:20-10:50 Break: 10:10-10:40 Break: 10:40-11:10 Break: 10:20-11:00Opening Ceremony andOpening Session Session 2a Session 2b Session 4Session 4Lunch: 12:30-14:00 Lunch: 12:30-14:00 Lunch: 12:40-14:00 Lunch: 12:40-14:00ClosingSession 1 Poster Session I Session 2c Poster Session IIRegistration 14:00 to 18:00Break: 16:00-16:30 End: 15:30 Break: 15:40-16:10 Break: 15:30-16:00Session 1 Session 3a Session 4Sightseeing Tour16:00 - 19:30End: 18:00 End: 18:10 End: 18:00 End: 17:20Non-organized casual Ice-Breaker at Hotel Johan,Captain's Pub, from 20:00Open Workshop on BALTEXData Management"How to get Access toBALTEX Data Bases"18:15 - 20:00Conference Dinner at theBishops Castle of Kuressaare19:30Sessions1 Improving Knowledge on Water and Energy Cycles2a Past Climate Variability and Change2b Climate Projections2c Impact of Climate Change3a Coastal Zone and Water Management3b The Coastman Project4 Linking BALTEX Science to Air Quality, Water Quality and Impacts on Ecosystems

- 1 -Conference ProgrammeMONDAY, 4 June 20078:00 Registration10:00 Opening CeremonyJüri ElkenTallinn University of Technology, EstoniaMember of the BALTEX SSGAndres TarandEuropean Parliament, EstoniaJaanus TamkiviMinister of the Environment, EstoniaUrve TiidusMayor of Kuressaare, Saaremaa, EstoniaJoakim LangnerSwedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, SwedenChair of the BALTEX SSG11:00 Opening SessionChair:Sirje Keevallik11:00 The World Climate Research Programme – Achievements and FutureVladimir Ryabinin (solicited)11:30 GEWEX Coordinated Energy and Water Cycle Observation ProjectJohn Roads (solicited)12:00 Common Research Interests for LOICZ and BALTEX in the Baltic SeaAreaJozef M. Pacyna (solicited)12:30 Lunch

- 3 -17:50 Testing a New Swell-dependent Drag Coefficient in a Process OrientedOcean ModelBjörn Carlsson, A. Rutgersson, A.-S. Smedman18:10 End of Monday’s Sessions20:00 IcebreakerTUESDAY, 5 June 2007Session 2a: Past Climate Variability and ChangeChair:Anders Omstedt8:30 How do We Know that Human Influence is Changing the Climate in theBaltic Sea Region?Hans von Storch, J. Bhend (solicited)9:00 Towards the Detection of a Human Induced Climate Change in NorthernEuropeJonas Bhend, H. von Storch9:20 Precipitation Pattern in the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin and its Dependenceon Large-scale Atmospheric CirculationJaak Jaagus9:40 Long-term Temperature, Salinity, and Sea Level Records from the BalticSea EntranceKristine Madsen, N. Højerslev10:00 Air Mass Seasonality and Winter Season Cold Air Masses in LatviaAnita Draveniece10:20 BreakChair:Daniela Jacob10:50 Modelling the Baltic Sea Ocean Climate on Centennial Time Scale;Temperature and Sea IceDaniel Hansson, A. Omstedt11:10 Trends of Temperature and Salinity of the Baltic Sea for the Period 1969-2005 and Long-Term Variability of Winter Water Mass FormationAndreas Lehmann, H.-H. Hinrichsen, S. Febiri, G. Tschersich11:30 Stagnation Periods and Deepwater Inflow Dynamics: An Analysis ofMeasurements in the Baltic Sea during the 20th CenturyErik Gustafsson, A. Omstedt

- 4 -TUESDAY, 5 June 200711:50 Trends, Long-Term Variations and Extremes of the Northern BalticProper Wave FieldsTarmo Soomere12:10 Current and Expected Changes in River Ice Regimes within the RussianPart of Baltic Drainage BasinValery Vuglinsky12:40 Lunch14:00 Poster Discussion I (see page 10)15:30 End of Tuesday’s Sessions16:30 Sightseeing TourWEDNESDAY, 6 June 2007Session 2a: Past Climate Variability and Change (cont.)Chair:Hans von Storch8:30 Simulation of Runoff in the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin during the PastMillenniumJonas Olsson, L. P. Graham, J. Rosbjerg, S.-S. Hellström, E. Kjellström,R. Berndtsson8:50 Climate Simulations of the Past Millennium with the Global ModelECHO-G: Results for the Baltex AreaEduardo Zorita, S. Wagner, F. Gonzalez-Rouco, H. von Storch9:10 Towards Policies and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change in theBaltic Sea Region - The ASTRA ProjectWalter Leal, F. Mannke (solicited)End of session 2aSession 2b: Climate Projections9:40 The ENSEMBLES and the BALTEX ProjectsMarkku Rummukainen, C. Hewitt, D. Jacob (solicited)10:10 Break

- 5 -WEDNESDAY, 6 June 2007Chair:Dan Rosbjerg10:40 Changes in the Water and Energy Budgets in the BALTEX Area in FutureWarmer Climates as Simulated in a Regional Climate ModelErik Kjellström, P. Lind11:00 Transient Simulations of Future Runoff to the Baltic Sea for the 21 stCenturyL. Phil Graham11:20 Precipitation Extremes under Climate Change in the Baltic Area asSimulated with a Regional Climate ModelOle Bøssing-Christensen11:40 Decadal Variability of the Hydrological Cycle in the Baltic Sea RegionDaniela Jacob, P. Lorenz12:00 Prolonged Periods with Little Rain during Summer in Finland -Observations and Future ProjectionsKirsti Jylhä, T. Kilpeläinen, A. Venäläinen, S. Saku, H. Tuomenvirta,K. Ruosteenoja, A. Vajda12:20 Future Wave Climate of the Baltic Sea - Projections with Winds from theRegional Climate Model RCA3 of the Rossby CentreBarry BromanEnd of Session 2b12:40 LunchSession 2c: Impact of Climate ChangeChair:Fritz Köster14:00 Climate Change Impact on the Baltic Sea Ecosystem: The HELCOMView on Future Cooperation with BALTEXJuha-Markku Leppänen, H. Backer (solicited)14:30 Climate Change and Land Ecosystems of the Baltic Sea Basin –Knowledge Gaps and Research PrioritiesBenjamin Smith (solicited)15:00 RCM-Downscaled Climate Indices Requested by the SwedishGovernment Climate and Vulnerability Inquiry Committee:An Overview and Some RemarksLars Bärring15:20 Impact of Climate Change on the Baltic Sea EcosystemKari Eilola, H. E. M. Meier

- 6 -WEDNESDAY, 6 June 200715:40 BreakChair:Benjamin Smith16:10 Methods for Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Nutrient Flowsfrom CatchmentsHeikki Kaipainen, Ä. Bilaletdin, T. Frisk, A. Paananen16:30 Perpetrator, Victim and Free-Rider – The Ambivalent Role of Tourismand Recreation for the Climate ChangeRalf ScheibeEnd of Session 2cSession 3a: Coastal Zone and Water Management16:50 Adaptation to Climate Change in Water Management – Baltic Sea BasinZbigniew W. Kundzewicz (solicited)17:20 The Application of the Conceptual Model Metq2006 for the River IecavaBasin as Case Study in LatviaAnsis Ziverts, A.Bakute, E. Apsite17:40 Water Levels and Flow in the River Systems of Lake Vänern and LakeMälaren.Sara-Sofia Hellström, S. Bergström, J. Andréasson18:00 End of Wednesday’s Sessions18:15 Open Workshop on BALTEX Data Management“How to get Access to BALTEX Data Bases”20:00 End of Workshop

- 7 -THURSDAY, 7 June 2007Session 3a: Coastal Zone and Water Management (cont.)Chair:Jozef Pacyna8:30 Performance of the Operational HIROMB Model in Relation to theOceanographic Extreme Events and Seasonal Fluxes in the Gulfs ofFinland and RigaJüri Elken, T. Kõuts, U. Lips, U. Raudseoo, P. Lagemaa, T. Liblik8:50 GIS Modelling of Water Transfer in System of River Catchment –Lagoon – Sea (Pregel River – Vistula Lagoon - Gdansk Gulf)Natalia Goncharova, D. Domnin, A. Korzh, E. GurovaEnd of Session 3aSession 3b: The Coastman Project9:10 COASTMAN – Coastal Zone Management in the Baltic Sea RegionJan Fidler, R. Wennersten, N. Brandt, Å. Larsson (solicited)9:40 Klaipeda Sea Deepwater Port Development IssueOlga Belous, S. Gulbinskas, R. Mileriene10:00 Coastal Zone Management in Haapsalu Bay Area, EstoniaArvo Iital, K. Vilta, E. Loigu, K. Roosalu10:20 The Conflict in the Kadetrinne: The Need for Integrative Approaches toSustainable Coastal Zone Management in the Baltic SeaWalter Leal, A. Holda, D. KrahnEnd of Session 3b10:40 BreakSession 4: Linking BALTEX Science to Air Quality, Water Quality andImpacts on EcosystemsChair:Ilppo Vuorinen11:10 Atmospheric Input of Nitrogen to the Baltic Sea Basin – Present Situation,Trends, Variability and Impact of Climate ChangeJoakim Langner (solicited)

- 8 -THURSDAY, 7 June 200711:40 Developing an Integrated View on the Baltic Sea Ecosystem:The EUR-OCEANS Baltic System StudyFritz Köster, D. Turner, A. Omstedt, C. Möllmann, H. Gislason, R. Autio,A. Olsson, R. Diekmann (solicited)12:10 Climate Change Impacts on the Ecosystems of the North Sea andRelevance to the Baltic: Evidence for Past Variability and FuturePrognosisPhilip C. Reid (solicited)12:40 Lunch14:00 Poster Discussion II (see page 12)15:30 BreakSession 4: Linking BALTEX Science to Air Quality, Water Quality andImpacts on Ecosystems (cont.)Chair:Joakim Langner16:00 Long-Range Transport of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons overEurope and their Deposition into the Baltic SeaArmin Aulinger, V. Matthias, M. Quante16:20 Impact of Anthropogenic Airborne Nutrients to the Bog Ecosystem inthe Eastern Baltic Sea Basin.Marko Kaasik, T. Ploompuu, E. Meier, Ü. Sõukand, H. Kaasik, T. Alliksaar,J. Ivask, R. Ots16:40 The Drift and Dispersion of an Oil Spill in the Baltic Sea Ice Season:Observation of the Runner 4 CaseKeguang Wang, M. Leppäranta, M. Gästgifvars, J.Vainio17:00 High Resolution Atmosphere-Sea Hydro-Ecological Modelling in theCoastal ZoneRein Tamsalu, V. Zalesny, R. Rõõm, R. Aps17:20 End of Thursday’s Sessions

- 9 -FRIDAY, 8 June 2007Session 4: Linking BALTEX Science to Air Quality, Water Quality andImpacts on Ecosystems (cont.)Chair:Timo Vihma8:30 The Baltic Sea Carbon Cycle: A Challenge for Research within BALTEXBernd Schneider (solicited)9:00 Simulations of Atmospheric CO 2 Concentration over EuropeUte Karstens9:20 Upscaling of CO 2 FluxesSven-Erik Gryning, H. Soegaard, E. Batchvarova9:40 A Comparison between Webb Corrected Humidity and CO 2 Spectra in theMarine Atmospheric Boundary LayerErik Sahlée, A.-S. Smedman, A. Rutgersson10:00 BreakChair:Bernd Schneider10:30 The Annual Cycle of Carbon-Dioxide and Parameters Influencing theAir-Sea Carbon Exchange in the Baltic ProperAnna Rutgersson, A.-S. Smedman, E. Sahlée, M. Norman, B. Schneider10:50 Model for the Air-Sea Gas Exchange through Film-Covered WaterChristoph Zülicke11:10 Set Up of a Thermodynamic Model of Snow, Snow Ice and Sea IceEvolution to be Coupled with a Biogeochemical Flux ModelLetizia Tedesco, M. Vichi, J. Haapala, T. Stipa11:30 Alkalinity in the Baltic Sea during 20 th CenturySofia Hjalmarsson, L. Anderson, L. Mintrop, K. Wesslander, A. Omstedt,M. Pertillä11:50 Modelling the Carbon Cycle in the Baltic Sea Surface WaterAnders Omstedt, K. Wesslander12:10 Closing of the Conference12:30 End of the Conference

- 10 -Poster Discussion I: Tuesday, 5 June 2007, 14:00 – 15:30Session 1: Improving Knowledge on Water and Energy CyclesPoster 01Transferability Studies – Evaluating and Improving Simulated Precipitation duringCEOPInsa Meinke, J. Roads, M. KanamitsuPoster 02COSMOS - Community Earth System ModelsDaniela Jacob, R. Budich, M. Claussen, M. GiorgettaPoster 03Diurnal Variability of Precipitable Water in the Baltic RegionErko Jakobson, H. Ohvril, G. ElgeredPoster 04Examination of Wind Data from Automatic Weather StationsSirje Keevallik, T. SoomerePoster 05Measurements of Solid Precipitation with an Optical DisdrometerGuido Lempio, K. BumkePoster 06Extreme Marine Snowfall as seen by BALTRADDaniel Michelson, U. Gjertsen, J. Koistinen, D. M. SchultzPoster 07Relationships between Extreme Daily Rainfall in Estonia and Atmospheric CirculationPiia PostPoster 08Water Vapour Transport in EuropeJoanna WibigPoster 09A Data Model for Hydrographic DataPhilip Axe, J. Szaron, E. Falkenroth, L. FyrbergPoster 10The Impact of Surface Albedo on Snow and Sea Ice Mass Balance in the Baltic SeaBin Cheng, A. Riihela, T. ManninenPoster 11Validation of the Modelled Sea-Ice Thickness with the HEM-DataJari Haapala, C. Haas

- 11 -Poster 12Statistical Analysis of Surface Temperature and Salinity Variability of the Baltic Sea - AComparison of Observations and Model DataAnniina Kiiltomäki, A. Lehmann, T. Stipa, V. Fleming-LehtinenPoster 13Upwelling Parameters Derived from Satellite Sea Surface Temperature Data in the Gulfof FinlandJaan Laanemets, R. UiboupinPoster 14The Roles of Brine Release and Sea Ice Drift for Winter Mixing and Sea Ice Formationin the Northern Baltic SeaAndreas Lehmann, R. HietalaPoster 15Upwelling in the Baltic Sea – A ReviewKai Myrberg, A. LehmannPoster 16On the Quasi-Steady Current along the Northern Slope of the Gulf of FinlandJuss Pavelson, T. Huttula, U. Lips, K. MyrbergPoster 17Surface Radiation Budget and Cloud Radiative Forcing on Sea Ice during the SpringSnowmelt Period in the Baltic SeaRoberta Pirazzini, T. Vihma, M. Granskog, B. ChengPoster 18CryoVEx 2005 – Altimeter Remote Sensing of Sea Ice Thickness in the Bay of BothniaEero Rinne, J. Haapala, C. Haas, I. Heiler, S. HendricksPoster 19Sensitivity Tests with Parameterization of Flow along Bottom Slope and Simulation of1993 Major Baltic Salt Inflow with 3D Hydrostatic ModelIrene Suomi, O. Andrejev, K. MyrbergPoster 20Some Features of Bottom Water Spreading into the Baltic SeaValeriy Tsarev, M. SharatunovaPoster 21Estimation of Lateral Mixing in the Gulf Of Finland caused by Upwelling/DownwellingSquirtsVictor Zhurbas, J. Laanemets

- 12 -POSTER Discussion II: Thursday, 7 June 2007, 14:00 – 15:30Session 2a: Past Climate Variability and ChangePoster 21aLongstanding Fluctuations of the River Stream Flow in Belarus Part of Baltic Sea BasinAccording to Atmospheric CirculationIrina Danilovich, R. ChekanPoster 22Reconstructing the Past 500 Years of River Runoff to the Baltic SeaChristin Eriksson, D. Hansson, A. Omstedt, D. ChenPoster 23Comparison of Selected Storminess Indices Based on Point Pressure MeasurementsKrzysztof Fortuniak, L. BärringPoster 24Regional Differences in Winter Sea-Level Variations in the Baltic Sea for the Past 200YearsBirgit Hünicke, E. Zorita, J. Luterbacher, A. PaulingPoster 25Climate Fluctuations in Belarus Part of Baltic Sea BasinAlena Kamarouskaya, I. KulyashovaPoster 26Tendencies of Seasonal Variability of Snow Storage in Conditions of Regional ClimateChanges over Northern EuropeLev Kitaev, R. HeinoPoster 27River Discharge Regime in Latvia in Respect to Climate VariabilityMaris Klavins, V. RodinovPoster 28Past Storm Climate in Southern Sweden: A Comparison of Modelled Data withObservational Data, a NW/SE Storm Index and Aeolian Proxy DataCarin Nilsson, R. De Jong, L. BärringPoster 29Multi-centurial Temperature Reconstructions by Farmers’ DiariesØyvind NordliPoster 30Changes in Frequency and Mean SLP of Cyclones Formed Over The Baltic Sea RegionMait Sepp

- 13 -Poster 31Formation of Hydrological Regime of Rivers and Reservoirs during Last Decades in TheBelarus Part of the Baltic Sea BasinLyudmila Trafimava, R. Chekan, I. Danilovich, L. NekrasavaPoster 32Variations in the West Dvina River Annual RunoffAlexander Volchak, S. ParfomukPoster 33Recent Warming of the Arctic Ocean and Possible Consequences for ClimateJan PiechuraSession 2c: Impact of Climate ChangePoster 34Climate Change Impacts on the Distribution of Total Annual Rivers' Runoff in LatviaElga Apsīte, L. Širiņa, A. BakutePoster 35Quantification of Climate Change Impacts in Urban Areas caused by Extreme RainfallKarsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen, C. Onof, W. MayPoster 36Simulated Crop Yield – An Indicator of Climate VariabilityTriin Saue, J. KadajaPoster 37Sea Surface Temperature Development and Cyanobacteria in the Baltic SeaHerbert Siegel, M. Gerth, G. TschersichSession 3a: Coastal Zone and Water ManagementPoster 38Storm Surges in the South Coast of the Gulf Of RigaTatjana Koltsova, J. BelakovaPoster 39Storm Surges in the Odra Mouth Area in the 1997-2006 DecadeHalina Kowalewska-Kalkowska, B. WisniewskiPoster 40Meteorological Features of Spring Flood Formation in Nemunas RiverEgidijus Rimkus, G. Stankunavicius, G. Valiuskevicius, A. BukantisPoster 41Transformation of the Water Run-Off of the Baltic Sea Basin Rivers in the Territory ofBelarusAlexander Volchek, A. Volchak, V. Luksha

- 14 -Poster 42Distributed Automated System of Flood Registration and PredictionAlexander Volchek, Y. Kuzavko, D. Kostiuk, An. VolchekPoster 43The Dynamics and Protection of the Sea Coasts and Dunes in Lithuania inResult of Extreme Climate Events (According to ASTRA Project Activities)Regina MorkunaiteSession 3b: The Coastman ProjectPoster 44Education in Sustainable Conflict Resolution - Experiences and Objectives of theCoastal Zone Management ProjectNils Brandt, J. Fidler, Å.LarssonPoster 45The Swedish Case Study Loudden - A Controversial Harbour for Oil Products inStockholmJan Fidler, N. Brandt, R. Wennersten, Å. LarssonPoster 46Participation of Ventspils City Council in the Project „Coastal Zone Management in theBaltic Sea Region / COASTMAN”Ilga Zīlniece, Tatjana Valdmane, Ineta KrauleSession 4: Linking BALTEX Science to Air Quality, Water Qualityand Impacts on EcosystemsPoster 47Long Term Trends in the Seas Surrounding Sweden. Part One – NutrientsPia Andersson, L. AnderssonPoster 48Simulations of the Particulate Organic Carbon in the Southern Baltic SeaLidia Dzierzbicka-Głowacka, K. Kuliński, J. PempkowiakPoster 49Transformation of the Surface Water Quality in the Baltic Sea Rivers on BelarusTerritoryMichail Kalinin, A. VolchakPoster 50Changes of Flows of Major Dissolved Substances from Territory of LatviaIlga Kokorite, M. Klavins, V. Rodinov

- 15 -Poster 51Natural Water Quality Testing in Kaliningrad AreaEvgeny V. KrasnovPoster 52Classification of the Water Quality for Nutrients in Agricultural RunoffAinis Lagzdins, V. Jansons, K. AbramenkoPoster 53Justification of the First Long-Term Prediction on the Main Environmental Factors andFish Stocks in the Baltic Estimated after 20 YearsEvald Ojaveer, M. KalejsPoster 54Continuous CO 2 , O 2 and N 2 Measurements on a Cargo Ship: An Efficient Tool to Studythe Baltic Sea Carbon CycleBernd SchneiderPoster 55Effect of Hydrological Regime and Nutrient Loadings on Lake Zuvintas EutrophicationEdvinas StoneviciusPoster 56Pilot Study of the Spring Air-Sea CO 2 Exchange in a Baltic Sea Coastal RegionKarin Wesslander, L. Anderson, P. Hall, S. Hjalmarsson, D. Lefevre, A. Omstedt,A. Rutgersson, E. Sahlée, A. Tengberg