Risk assessment of new psychoactive substances - EMCDDA - Europa

Chapter 2General considerations for risk assessmentWhen assessing the factors listed under section 1.3 in the previous chapter, thefollowing general principles need to be taken into consideration.2.1 A dual definition of riskThe concept of risk should be understood in its dual sense, which includes both theelement of probability that some harm may occur (usually defined as ‘risk’) andthe degree of seriousness of such a harm (usually defined as ‘hazard’). If possible,both elements should be evaluated in the final phase of the risk-assessmentprocess.2.2 Prevalence of useAssessment if there is sufficient evidence that the substance is being or is likely tobe used so as to constitute a public health and social threat is obligatory whenthe new psychoactive substance is a substance similar to those listed in the 1971UN Convention. However, it is also logical to consider this aspect for substancessimilar to those listed under the 1961 UN Convention. A substance for which it isanticipated that the extent of use will remain limited would not warrant measuresof international control.When a new psychoactive substance is notified within the framework of theCouncil Decision, reporting will generally be based on anecdotal reports on theuse of the new psychoactive substance or reports from laboratories or the police,or a combination thereof. At that stage, the spread of the substance will usuallybe low and prevalence of use likewise and triangulation of ethno-epidemiologicalmethods will be needed to assess the extent of use among limited user groups. Inmost cases, an expert judgement will be needed on the likelihood that use of anew psychoactive substance will spread. This judgement will primarily be basedon a comparison of the characteristics and accessibility of the new psychoactivesubstance and the setting in which the new psychoactive substance is used withthe characteristics, accessibility and setting of use of other well-known substances.21