Risk assessment of new psychoactive substances - EMCDDA - Europa

Annex IISemi-quantitative assessment procedureThere are five major domains affecting the extent of risk: B (Dependence andabuse potential); C (Prevalence of use); D (Health risks); E (Social risks), and F(Involvement of organised crime). These five domains are further specified inAnnex I: Technical report. Section A in the technical report is merely descriptiveand does not determine the extent of risks associated with the new psychoactivesubstance.Four of the five domains are divided into subgroups (B.1, B.2, etc.). Each subgroupreceives a score based on expert judgement, taking into account the principles setout in the guidelines. The score obtained for each subgroup is called ‘risk level’(RL). Domain C (Prevalence) receives only a single score.As indicated in Chapter 2.1 of the guidelines, risk is to be understood andconsidered in its dual sense: both the degree of seriousness of harm (hazard) andthe probability of harm. The expert is expected to make a judgement of the risklevel comprised of an integrated assessment of both hazard and probability. Inthis respect, probability should be judged independently of prevalence of use,which is assessed separately under C. Thus, probability means the likelihood thata single user will be harmed.Note that assigning scores for the sub-categories of the subgroups (i.e. D1.1 andD1.2) is not a requirement, as a panel of scientists is apt to give an integral (semi-)quantitative judgement on each subgroup, provided their judgement is embeddedin a Delphi-like environment.The Scientific Committee of the EMCDDA (if necessary, extended by a further fiveexperts at most, and with up to two experts from the Commission, Europol and theEMEA (Article 6.2)) has the task to produce a report which gives a science-based(semi-)quantitative judgement on all aspects mentioned in the domains B to F.Based on this report, the Scientific Committee gives a final overall judgement of therisks of the new psychoactive substance and formulates a conclusion.57