CONFERENCE PREVIEW - Predictive Analytics World

Full Agenda2:35-2:45pmPlatinum Sponsor Presentation2:50-3:10pml Track 1: Thought LeadershipCase Study: CA General UnderwritersInsuranceSeize the Competitive Future througha Shared Vision for Value Creation,Quality Management & CollaborationPredictive Analytics facilitates “anticipating future needsso we can actively create the future” (Drucker). Enrichit and your organization by creating more value frompredictions, managing prediction quality and genuinecollaboration among stakeholder teams. Stakeholdersinclude your prediction financiers, owners and usersplus analytics developers, implementers and insurers.Explore “what to do and how to do it” for collaboration,quality management and value creation plus appreciateDrucker’s Philosphies, Deming’s Principles, Juran’sProcesses and Ackoff’s Pitfalls. Tribal cultures and theirimmune systems are primary inhibitors of collaboration.To ensure competitive future success of PredictiveAnalytics, we need to selectively relax them.Speakers: Arnold Goodman Arnold Goodman, Founder& Principal, Collaborative Data Solutions & StephanieBehnke, President, California General UnderwritersInsurance Companys Track 2: Real Estate Market ScoringCase Study: Altos ResearchThere & Back Again: ModelInterpretability in Real EstateMarket ScoringSeasoned predictive analytics practitioners understand thatsimple “accuracy” is the beginning of model validation notthe end. Perfect accuracy on your own training data is trivial.How confident are we in our predictions during trulyunprecedented scenarios? The business builds confidenceand optimizes “variance” by involving itself in the grittymodeling process. Black boxes are difficult for the businessto interpret so improving robustness often means goingback to more transparent models. Ben will present a casestudy in local residential real estate market scoring whennon-parametric ensemble methods were left behind formarginally less accurate but interpretable linear models.Speaker: Ben Gimpert Director of QuantitativeAnalytics, Altos Research3:15-3:35pml Track 1: InsuranceCase Study: Alberta Motor AssociationInsurance Pricing Models UsingPredictive AnalyticsThe use of predictive analytics solutions as a pricing toolfor insurance is a very recent phenomenon amongstactuaries. This case study examines what tools were usedin the past and what has led to the adoption of predictiveanalytics solutions within the actuarial discipline. Particularemphasis is devoted to the significant data challengeswhich are unique to the insurance pricing sector. Atthe same time, attendees will learn the process thatwas adopted in building these tools. More importantly,attendees will understand how to demonstrate the valueor benefit of predictive analytics solutions over existingactuarial tools.Speaker: Richard Boire, Partner, Boire Filler Groups Track 2: Branch Location AssessmentCase Study: YMCAUsing Probabilistic Computing toOptimize YMCA Branch Site LocationsThe YMCA operates a network of 2000+ branches,each of which is a $10M+ special-purpose investment.Predicting viability of new branch sites and benchmarkingperformance potential of existing sites is a high-valuechallenge which Seer Analytics has worked closely withthe YMCA to tackle.Seer recently evaluated probabilistic computing modelsfor retail site location analysis. Seer’s probabilistic modelswere developed in a week and were as predictive as adedicated suite of logistic regression models developedover 18 months for the YMCA. The probabilistic modelsalso generated per-estimate confidence intervals,offering unique insight into the risk associated with eachprediction.Speaker: Bill Lazarus, President & CEO, SeerAnalytics3:40-4:00pm© 2012 Rising Media, Inc. 10 www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/sanfrancisco/2012