31 Aug 2012 Intellasia Finance Vietnam - Hong Kong Business ...
31 Aug 2012 Intellasia Finance Vietnam - Hong Kong Business ...
31 Aug 2012 Intellasia Finance Vietnam - Hong Kong Business ...
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FINANCE<br />
<strong>Vietnam</strong> finance & business <strong>31</strong> <strong>Aug</strong>ust <strong>2012</strong><br />
FINANCE<br />
GDP growth to<br />
accelerate in H2<br />
<strong>31</strong>/AUG/<strong>2012</strong>2 INTELLASIA | DAU TU<br />
Inching up trend of the economy is continuing to be recognised. The figures from general<br />
Statistical Office (GSO) showed that the index of industrial production (IIP) in <strong>Aug</strong>ust<br />
<strong>2012</strong> rose 4.1 percent from July and surged 4.4 percent over the same period last<br />
year.<br />
Totally, in Jan-<strong>Aug</strong>, IIP posted a rise of 4.7 percent on year, 0.1 percent lower than the<br />
rise of 4.8 percent in the first seven months of this year.<br />
According to specialists, these figures showed industrial production, which has big<br />
contribution to general economic growth, is on the rebound but it is still a relatively<br />
weak.<br />
The most difficult phase of the economy has been over, the gradual recovery of the<br />
economy has been mentioned by local and foreign economic experts in recent time. To<br />
offer more proof, perhaps, in the first seven months of this year, according to figures<br />
from the general Department of Taxation, nearly 1,000 businesses resuming operations<br />
mainly non-state enterprises can be considered a fairly typical example.<br />
With this recovery, although still remaining weak, it is forecast that <strong>Vietnam</strong>'s GDP<br />
growth in the third quarter of this year would reach 5.53 percent.<br />
In a forecast released not long ago, both HSBC and ANZ have made the same prediction<br />
that <strong>Vietnam</strong>'s GDP growth will be faster in the second half of this year when the<br />
moves of loosening monetary and fiscal policies are made.<br />
According to ANZ, the government's move to give a subsidy package of approximately<br />
29 trillion dong, while enhancing the capital disbursement for development investment,<br />
will help GDP growth in Q3 reach above 5 percent, and in Q4, even up to over 6<br />
percent. "As a result, GDP growth for the whole year will be around 5.5 percent,"<br />
ANZ's experts predicted.<br />
If real GDP growth reaches 5.53 percent in Q3, the GDP growth in the first nine months<br />
of this year would be about 4.8 percent. This growth is quite low compared with the<br />
growth of 5.76 percent in the first nine months in 2011; 6.54 percent for the first nine<br />
months in 2010 and 6.52 percent in the first three quarters of 2008. However, it is still<br />
higher than the growth of 4.62 percent in Jan-Sep of 2009 - the year of economic recession<br />
and also the year of the economy changes quite similar to <strong>2012</strong>. In 2009, GDP<br />
growth in Q1 and Q2 was 3.1 percent and 4.5 percent respectively. This year, in Q1 and<br />
Q2, GDP growth was 4 percent and 4.66 percent. Looking at the quarterly GDP growth<br />
rate, it is clear to see the "inching up" of the economy, which is falling into the stagnation<br />
situation since the beginning of this year so far.<br />
As forecasted by the Ministry of Planning and Investment, in Q4, GDP growth could<br />
reach 6 percent and it would be about 5.3 - 5.6 percent for the whole year. In a meeting<br />
with leaders of Hanoi People's Committee about two weeks ago, the minister of Planning<br />
and Investment, Bui Quang Vinh, also emphasized this. According to the minister,<br />
this year's GDP growth will not be able to achieve the goal (6 - 6.5 percent).<br />
Meanwhile, according to the prediction of a group of economic experts, economic<br />
growth from now till the end of this year depends largely on investment, including<br />
public investment, FDI capital and credit growth. While public investment and FDI<br />
capital are relatively stable and easy to predict, credit growth could not be determined<br />
reliably.<br />
The fact showed that despite certain changes, interest rates have fallen, both monetary<br />
and fiscal policies have been loosened, production and business activities of enterprise<br />
systems still face many difficulties. In such context, credit growth is still quite sluggish<br />
and it can only reach about six percent for the whole year. Meanwhile, social investments,<br />
despite being faster, even the government has approved to advances 30 trillion<br />
dong of the capital plan in <strong>2012</strong>, still do not really have the positive changes and clarity.<br />
When the "nutrient" to feed the economy grows slowly, the economy does not expect<br />
a strong recovery.<br />
<strong>Intellasia</strong> <strong>31</strong> <strong>Aug</strong>ust <strong>2012</strong> 2 / 46