inTervieW - Green Cross Publishing

20
opinion
tHe CoAlfACe
brain drain or over-
supply – you decide
David Jordan has dug up some interesting figures
relating to the future supply of pharmacists.
so we have reached October and for
the interns and tutors it is a case
of another year over. And from all
our points of view the last year has
certainly been a memorable one.
The old Chinese curse ‘May you live
in interesting times’ springs to mind. I had a chat
with my departing intern about her job prospects
and the outlook is indeed gloomy. Once again
the talk is of emigration. Mostly Australia and
Canada, the UK does not get much of a look in
with today’s graduates. Even though emigration
is not the big deal that it was when I qualified
this still saddens me. After five years of hard slog
at the expense of the taxpayer they, through no
fault of their own, will now be lost to Ireland.
now those of you accustomed to my
scribblings will know that this is the kind of thing
which gets me thinking. Just how many positions
are available to the 170 graduates who will be
sitting their final exams this november? not
enough it seems. The current freeze on hospital
appointments is not helping. Maybe in a few
years this might change but for now it just adds
to the woe. But just how many new pharmacists
does Ireland need every year?
“
I would readily
have more
pharmacists practising
in my pharmacy if I
could get away with
paying them the
minimum wage.
Foraging For Figures
So I set off to find out. My first port of call, as with
any pharmaceutical matter, was the PSI. no don’t
worry, this is not going to be another PSI rant. I’ll
have plenty more of them in articles to come. I
emailed them asking if they were aware of any
manpower studies in relation to pharmacists.
I also emailed the Department of Education as
they pay for all the pharmacy courses. By return
the Department replied that they did not have
any studies but referred me to the HEA. They in
turn referred me to Fórfas on whose website I
found surveys for 2005, 2006 and 2007. At the
time of writing the PSI hasn’t even replied to my
original email. OK so I’m allowed a little rant! I
also culled some figures from the PSI’s Corporate
Strategy. So they weren’t totally useless.
WoManPoWer
I started by calling these ‘Manpower’ surveys.
However Womanpower may be more accurate. In
2005 the fairer sex accounted for 50 per cent of
the pharmacist workforce, by 2007 this figure had
risen to 70 per cent.
Aside from this, the number of pharmacists
on the PSI register increased from 2,500 in 2005
to 4,500 in 2010. (lets not forget the 500 or so
Qualified Assistants who are still on the register
as well.) Assuming that approximately 10 per cent
of the register is not in active practice this gives
a workforce of 4,000 to 4,100. This is a massive
increase in any workforce in such a short period.
When you look at the age profile the numbers
over 55 years of age in 2005 was 10 per cent.
This rises to 18 per cent in 2007. So in the next 7
years (i.e. up to 2017) we can expect about 500
pharmacists to retire from active practice. So how
are they being replaced? The surveys reported
a growth rate on 10-12 per cent p.a. in pharmacy
with a replacement rate of 2.8 per cent required.
The PSI’s Corporate Strategy estimates that they
will register 150 from Irish universities, 90 EU
nationals and 10 from outside the EU every year.
I suspect that many of the EU nationals will be
Irish students currently studying pharmacy in
the UK. That is 250 new pharmacists every year.
A replacement rate of 5.5 per cent. Twice the rate
that Fórfas recommends. So the 500 retirements
from 2007 to 2017 have already been replaced
by 2009. By 2017 500 retirements will have been
replaced by 2,500 new pharmacists. Even with
my B in leaving Cert maths these numbers
don’t add up. So why all the pharmacy places
in universities?
over-suPPLy
All of the studies mentioned above noted the
pharmacist shortages which certainly existed
at stages in the past. But it seems that when
planning for university places – if any such
planning occurred – no account was taken of
EU pharmacists who now have free movement
and mutual recognition of qualifications. Also no
allowance was made for all the Irish students who
might travel to the UK to study there. So now it
would seem that we are heading for massive over
supply.
The PSI has stated in their strategy that
they would like to see more pharmacists per
pharmacy. They have also said that they would
like to see a return to a version of geographic
distribution via some form of licensing. While
these are laudable desires there is no mention
dAvId jordAN
issue 10 volume 12 • novemBeR 2010
David Jordan has worked
in community pharmacy
since 1979, qualifying as
a pharmacist in 1983. He
was chairperson of the
Community Employee
Committee of the IPU from
1990 to 1998 and treasurer
from 1994 to 1996. His
main stress relief is riding
his motorbike with his
friends from
www.irishbikerforum.com
of how this is to be paid for. I would readily have
more pharmacists practising in my pharmacy if I
could get away with paying them the minimum
wage. If the current over-supply continues this
may yet be a practicable proposition.
The same market forces may deal with this
matter at least on a short term basis. numbers
aren’t available yet but I suspect that the
numbers of Irish students travelling to the UK
to study pharmacy is on the wane. Those who
started in the last few years will most likely finish
their course but I doubt if many have started
in 2010. Also the current recession/depression/
double dip/'we’re all screwed anyway', will
discourage pharmacists from the eastern states
of the EU from travelling here.
But for now unless the PSI, Department of
Education and the HEA sit down together and
discuss this it looks like we will be pumping our
taxes into training our best and brightest for
export.
Just to finish on a side note. When UCC
announced the start of their pharmacy course I
asked a southern colleague why did Cork need a
School of Pharmacy. His reply was “Sure Dublin has
two, boy.” Hate mail
can be sent
to me via the
editor!