Ahmet Öztopal, Albero Mugnai, Daniele Casella, Marco ... - H-SAF

Table 5.7. Summary results of PR-OBS-2 validation in Turkey over inner landH02 Turkey LandValidation period: 1 st July 2008 - 30 June 2009 - Threshold rain / no rain: 0.25mm/hGauge Class Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunNumber of > 10 mm/h 0 0 3 - 5 0 0 1 0 18 - 9comparisons1-10 mm/h 452 352 2864 - 2472 1800 6126 6763 3395 3464 - 1620(groundobs.)< 1 mm/h 1052 581 6515 - 7470 7961 14274 18339 12536 9413 - 3147> 10 mm/h - - -12.65 - -10.39 - - -12.39 - -12.40 - -3.22ME (mm/h) 1-10 mm/h 3.20 13.47 -0.81 - -1.63 -1.27 -1.38 -1.46 -1.28 -1.08 - 0.78< 1 mm/h 2.29 3.19 0.22 - -0.46 -0.44 -0.47 -0.46 -0.48 -0.33 - 1.38> 10 mm/h - - 0.78 - 2.05 - - - - 3.58 - 24.29SD (mm/h) 1-10 mm/h 17.64 30.55 4.20 - 1.35 0.77 1.26 0.83 1.04 1.85 - 9.04< 1 mm/h 11.57 15.71 5.05 - 0.35 0.34 0.37 0.50 0.37 0.81 - 6.73> 10 mm/h - - 12.67 - 10.55 - - 12.39 - 12.87 - 23.13RMSE(mm/h)1-10 mm/h 17.91 33.34 4.27 - 2.12 1.48 1.87 1.68 1.65 2.14 - 9.07< 1 mm/h 11.79 16.02 5.05 - 0.58 0.56 0.60 0.68 0.60 0.88 - 6.87> 10 mm/h - - 100 - 94 - - 100 - 89 - 166RMSE (%) 1-10 mm/h 1094 2055 254 - 97 96 97 94 104 106 - 531< 1 mm/h 2918 2406 1349 - 108 108 112 121 108 180 - 1642> 10 mm/h - - - - -0.23 - - - - 0.03 - -0.29CC 1-10 mm/h 0.23 0.11 0.03 - 0.30 0.16 0.36 0.21 0.16 0.26 - 0.00< 1 mm/h -0.02 0.24 -0.01 - 0.11 0.08 0.08 0.05 0.10 0.07 - 0.05POD ≥ 0.25 mm/h 0.11 0.21 0.13 - 0.08 0.06 0.10 0.09 0.06 0.14 - 0.21FAR ≥ 0.25 mm/h 0.55 0.61 0.43 - 0.23 0.33 0.37 0.26 0.36 0.31 - 0.64CSI ≥ 0.25 mm/h 0.10 0.15 0.12 - 0.08 0.06 0.09 0.09 0.05 0.14 - 0.15Values in Table 5.6 and Table 5.7 are presented in graphical form in Figure 5.20 andFigure 5.21, respectively. As for Figure 5.20 the following interpretation sequence can bedrawn.1) It is clear from Figure 5.20a that the standard deviation (SD) and root Mean squareerror (RMSE) have almost the same pattern, and therefore, in the future onlyRMSE must be considered.2) RMSE variation for < 1 mm/h precipitation is comparatively smaller that the otheralternative where the precipitation amounts lie within 1 mm/h and 10 mm/h interval.This is meaningful because extreme precipitation fluctuations are within this intervaland also the number of precipitation occurrences in this interval is less than theoccurrences, where precipitation is < 1mm/h.3) The mean error (ME) values fluctuate around zero level for the case whereprecipitation is < 1mm/h, which indicates the suitability of the used model.4) Unfortunately, the ME values for 1-10 mm/h interval have dominantly negatives,which means that the model yields biased results. However, since all the valuesfluctuate around almost -1.0 level it is possible to improve the model by introducinga constant value, which helps to shift -1.00 level to zero level.5) In Figure 5.20b there are significant errors because precipitation category morethan 10 mm/h includes very extreme values and accordingly their treatments mustbe dealt with a separate approach and model.27