Impacts of Climate Change on the European Marine and Coastal ...

Final draftPosition Paper ##<strong>Impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on the EuropeanMarine and Coastal EnvironmentEcosystems ApproachMarch 2007www.esf.org/marineboard 0

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal DraftWith it present memberships <strong>of</strong> 23 marine research organisations (institutes and agencies)from 16 countries, the Marine Board provides a unique forum to express the collective vision<strong>of</strong> how research can inform issues <strong>of</strong> societal concern.Contact Details:Dr. Niamh ConnollyMarine Board SecretariatEuropean Science Foundation1, quai Lezay-MarnésiaBP 90015F-67080 Strasbourg Cedex2

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal Draft<strong>Impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on the European Marine and CoastalEnvironmentMarine Board Position Paper ##Coordinating Author and Editor:Catharina J.M. PhilippartAuthorsRicardo Anadón, Roberto Danovaro, Joachim W. Dippner, Kenneth F. Drinkwater, Stephen J. Hawkins,Ge<strong>of</strong>frey O’Sullivan, Temel Oguz, Philip C. ReidMarine Board - Series EditorsNiamh Connolly, Nicolas Walter3

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal DraftCONTENTFOREWORD.............................................................................................................................................51 CLIMATE CHANGE...............................................................................................................................51.1 Global <strong>Change</strong> and <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong>..............................................................................................51.2 <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> and <strong>Climate</strong> Variability.........................................................................................71.3 Role <strong>of</strong> the Oceans in <strong>Climate</strong> Regulation......................................................................................82 PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE CLIMATE.............................................................................................112.1 Forecasts and Scenarios..............................................................................................................112.2 Model Scenarios for Europe.........................................................................................................123 POSSIBLE RESPONSES AND IMPACTS...........................................................................................143.1 Physical responses and impacts ..................................................................................................143.2 Biological responses and impacts ................................................................................................154 REGIONAL RESPONSES AND IMPACTS .........................................................................................174.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................174.2 Arctic Ocean.................................................................................................................................194.3 Barents Sea .................................................................................................................................224.4 Nordic Seas..................................................................................................................................254.5 Northeast Atlantic.........................................................................................................................284.6 North Sea .....................................................................................................................................314.7 Baltic Sea .....................................................................................................................................344.8 Celtic-Biscay Shelf .......................................................................................................................374.9 Iberian Upwelling Margin..............................................................................................................404.10 Mediterranean Sea.....................................................................................................................434.11 Black Sea ...................................................................................................................................484.12 General Trends and Regional-Specific Expectations .................................................................515 FUTURE NEEDS FOR MONITORING AND INDICATORS ................................................................535.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................535.2 Indicators......................................................................................................................................535.3 Abiotic Indicators..........................................................................................................................545.4 Biotic indicators ............................................................................................................................555.5 Recommendations .......................................................................................................................576 FUTURE RESEARCH NEEDS ............................................................................................................58BIBLIOGRAPHY ....................................................................................................................................61APPENDICES.........................................................................................................................................70APPENDIX 1: GLOSSARY OF TERMS.............................................................................................71APPENDIX 2: LIST OF ACRONYMS.................................................................................................72APPENDIX 3:GLOSSARY OF LARGE-SCALE MONITORING PROGRAMMES AND RESEARCHACTIVITIES RELATED TO CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON THE EUROPEAN MARINE ANDCOASTAL ENVIRONMENT ...............................................................................................................73APPENDIX 4: EXTRACT FROM NAVIGATING THE FUTURE III ON CLIMATE CHANGE ..............77APPENDIX 5. MEMBERS OF THE WORKING GROUP ...................................................................824

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal DraftEXECUTIVE SUMMARYTerms <strong>of</strong> referenceIn September 2005, the Marine Board -ESFestablished a Working Group <strong>of</strong> experts toaddress <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> <strong>Impacts</strong> on theEuropean Marine and Coastal Environment.The objectives <strong>of</strong> the Working Group were: thefollowing:1. Summarise the evidence for global climatechange in the marine and coastalenvironment;2. Review main anticipated impacts <strong>of</strong>climate change with regard to physical andbiological features <strong>of</strong> the European marineand coastal environment;3. Recommend to the Marine BoardEuropean any future need in terms <strong>of</strong>climate change monitoring, development <strong>of</strong>indicators, research and development, toassess impact <strong>of</strong> climate changeSocio-economic and mitigation issues were notwithin the Terms <strong>of</strong> Reference <strong>of</strong> this study.Structure <strong>of</strong> the reportThis is the final report <strong>of</strong> the Working Group. Itsummarises the current state <strong>of</strong> knowledgewith regard to general and regional-specificimpacts <strong>of</strong> climate change on European marineand coastal environments, including the Arctic,Northeast Atlantic, Barents Sea, Nordic seas,North Sea, Baltic Sea, Celtic-Biscay Shelf,Iberian upwelling margin, Mediterranean Sea,and Black Sea. Results from earlier long-termstudies <strong>of</strong> European seas are used to examinepast changes, to put recent rapid changes intocontext, and to forecast likely future ecosystemresponses to climate change. General andregional indicators <strong>of</strong> climate change areidentified, and associatedchallenges for future research and monitoringare highlighted.Evidence for climate changeRecent research, including the examination <strong>of</strong>ice cores and growth rings <strong>of</strong> ancient trees,shows that the Northern Hemisphere has beenwarmer since 1980 than at any other timeduring the last 2000 years. The observedincrease in temperature under climate changewas generally higher in northern than insouthern European seas.Although marine ecosystems are influenced bymany factors, such as eutrophication andoverfishing, every region has shown at leastsome changes that were most likely toattributable to recent climate change. For themost northern seas, such as the Arctic and theBarents Sea, the most obvious temperaturerelatedchange is the decline in sea-ice cover.For most open seas, there is evidence <strong>of</strong>geographic displacement <strong>of</strong> speciespopulations northwards, with northern speciesbeing replaced by more southern species.Such changes not only impact on localecosystems, but also impact on the activities <strong>of</strong>the international fishing fleet when commercialspecies are affected.The enclosed seas have noticeably undergonefar more dramatic changes than the more openseas during the past decades. Relatively smallchanges in the frequency <strong>of</strong> inflow as in theBaltic Sea or in temperature as in the EasternMediterranean and Black Sea had a strongeffect on large parts <strong>of</strong> the ecosystem,indicating the high sensitivity <strong>of</strong> these enclosedsystems towards climate change.Anticipated impacts <strong>of</strong> climate changeAlthough there can be no certainty regardingthe precise nature and rate <strong>of</strong> future climatechange, even the more moderate <strong>of</strong> thepredicted scenarios is expected to further alterthe marine environment, with associated majorenvironmental and social impacts.It is expected that within open systems therewill generally be (further) northward movement<strong>of</strong> species, e.g. Atlantic species moving tomore northern seas such as the Arctic, BarentsSea and the Nordic Seas, and subtropicalspecies moving northward to temperate regionsuch as the Iberian upwelling margin.For seas that are highly influenced by riverrun<strong>of</strong>f, such as the Baltic Sea, an increase infreshwater due to enhanced rainfall will lead toa shift from marine to more brackish and evenfreshwater species. If enclosed systems suchas the Mediterranean and the Black Sea losetheir endemic species, the associated nicheswill probably be filled by species originatingfrom adjacent waters and, possibly, withspecies transported from one region to anothervia ballast water.Conclusions and RecommendationsWhile on-going national and internationalactions to curtail and reduce greenhouse gasemissions are essential, the levels <strong>of</strong>greenhouse gases currently in the atmosphere,and their impact, are likely to persist for severaldecades. On-going and increased efforts tomitigate climate change through reduction ingreenhouse gases are therefore crucial.2

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal DraftIn parallel, a better understanding <strong>of</strong> potentialclimate change impacts (scenarios) at bothregional and local levels, the development <strong>of</strong>improved methods to quantify the uncertainty <strong>of</strong>climate change projections, the construction <strong>of</strong>usable climate change indicators, and animprovement <strong>of</strong> the interface between scienceand policy formulation in terms <strong>of</strong> riskassessment will be essential to formulate andinform better adaptive strategies to address theinevitable consequences <strong>of</strong> climate change.The Working Group identified specificrecommendations on future monitoring andindicators and with regards to future researchneeds, which are described in Section 5 andSection 6 <strong>of</strong> this report, respectively. Generalrecommendations were to:1. Enhance evaluation <strong>of</strong> the impact <strong>of</strong>climate change on the European marineand coastal environment; this will requirea concerted effort to gather, store andanalyse previously and presentlycollected marine environmental data(e.g. common open access databaseand annual Pan-European reportingbased on national contributions);2. Identify the nature and rate <strong>of</strong>consequences <strong>of</strong> climate change inEuropean marine and coastal waters;this will require the maintainance <strong>of</strong>sustained monitoring efforts and use <strong>of</strong>new technologies to increase theirspatial and temporal resolution;3. Predict the consequences <strong>of</strong> climatechange for our marine environment; thiswill require the development andmeasurement <strong>of</strong> parameters (e.g.indicators) which are indicative <strong>of</strong> theunderlying mechanisms <strong>of</strong> climateinducedchanges;4. Predict the response and feedback <strong>of</strong>marine environments and ecosystems toclimate change; this will require theimprovement <strong>of</strong> regional climate modelsand the development <strong>of</strong> biophysicalmodels;5. Predict the impact on climate change onthe distribution <strong>of</strong> marine organisms andon marine food webs; this will requirethe inclusion <strong>of</strong> knowledge on species’physiology, bioenergetics and behaviourin biophysical and ecosystem models.Signals: Long-term variation in area-averaged sea-surface temperatures (°C) in European marine andcoastal environments based on HadSST2 data from the Hadley Centre, UK (data compiled by PriscillaLicandro/SAHFOS and Katja Philippart/NIOZ).Baltic SeaBarents Sea1039281930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20001930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Black SeaCeltic-Biscay shelf141613151930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000121930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Central MediterraneanEastern Mediterranean21201920181930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000191930 1940 1950 1960 1970 19903

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal DraftBaltic SeaBarents Sea1039281930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20001930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Black SeaCeltic-Biscay shelf141613151930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000121930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Central MediterraneanEastern Mediterranean21201920181930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000191930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990Potential Impact: Summary <strong>of</strong> scenarios <strong>of</strong> effects <strong>of</strong> climate change on European SeasGENERAL TRENDSSEA-SPECIFIC EXPECTATIONSIncrease in temperature<strong>Impacts</strong> on ecosystemsNorthward movementsHigher in northern than in southern seasStronger for enclosed than for open seasStronger in southern than in northern seasStronger in open than in enclosed seasShifts in species compositionFrom northern to southern species (open seas)From ice-bound to aquatic species (northern seas)From marine to freshwater species (Baltic Sea)From endemic to congeneric species (enclosed seas)4

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal Draft1 CLIMATE CHANGE1.1 Global <strong>Change</strong> and <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong>“Global climate change will affect thephysical, biological and biogeochemicalcharacteristics <strong>of</strong> the oceans and coasts,modifying their ecological structure, theirfunctions, and the goods and servicesthey provide”.IPCC (2001)Our world is changing rapidly. During the last10-15 years, temperatures throughout much <strong>of</strong>the globe have been, warmer than everrecorded; Arctic sea-ice is rapidly disappearing;melting <strong>of</strong> both glaciers and the Greenland icecap is accelerating; enormous ice sheets fromAntarctica are collapsing into the sea; sealevels are rising and seas are becomingstormier, increasing the risk <strong>of</strong> coastal floodingin low lying areas including major cities;precipitation is more variable with morefrequent intense rainfall events leading toextensive flooding; the duration and severity <strong>of</strong>droughts has increased; hurricane intensityappears to be greater; springtime is occurringearlier; there is a poleward shift in thedistribution <strong>of</strong> many species; and the number <strong>of</strong>harmful algal blooms in coastal regionsappears to have increased. Many <strong>of</strong> theseevents are thought to be predominantly aconsequence <strong>of</strong> human-induced climatechange.These changes have the potential to causeserious socio-economic impacts at bothregional and local levels. Increased storminess,coastal inundation and flooding impact onmaritime transport and on coastal infrastructure(urban development, road and rail networks).These impacts in turn, have implications onfuture investments and strategies related tocoastal developments and <strong>of</strong>fshoreconstruction (associated with oil and gasindustry, trans-shipment and renewable oceanenergy), not to mention increased insurancecosts. <strong>Change</strong>s in species biogeography (i.e.the poleward movement <strong>of</strong> indigenous speciesand increased risk <strong>of</strong> invasions <strong>of</strong> nonindigenousspecies) have implications oncommercial fisheries and aquaculture and onthe design and implementation <strong>of</strong> effectiveconservation and environmental monitoringstrategies.Before the industrial age, natural processessuch as solar variability, Milankovitch cyclesand volcanic outgassing were the dominantforcing factors producing long-term climatechanges over periods <strong>of</strong> decades, centuriesand millennia. There is now convincingevidence that since the industrial revolution,human activities, resulting in increasingconcentrations <strong>of</strong> greenhouse gases havebecome a major agent <strong>of</strong> climate change.These greenhouse gases affect the globalclimate by retaining heat in the troposphere,thus raising the average temperature <strong>of</strong> theplanet and altering global atmosphericcirculation and precipitation patterns. <strong>Climate</strong>change influences the oceans and coasts invarious ways: through changes in temperatureand sea level, ocean circulation, storminessand hence vertical mixing and wave regimes,all <strong>of</strong> which in turn can influence marineecosystems and modify marine habitats. In thiscontext, one can expect changes in nutrientavailability, biological productivity, phenology(the timing <strong>of</strong> biological events such asspawning), population biogeography andmigratory patterns, community structure, andpredator-prey relationships from the bottom tothe top <strong>of</strong> the food web.“The second <strong>of</strong> February 2007 here inParis will perhaps one day be rememberedas the day when the question mark wasremoved behind the debate whetherclimate change had anything to do withhuman activities on this planet.”Steiner (IPCC Meeting Feb. 2007)Although species have responded to variationsin climate throughout their evolutionary history,a primary concern for species and theirecosystems is the rapid rate <strong>of</strong> changecurrently observed (Root et al. 2003). Regionalchanges are <strong>of</strong>ten more relevant in the context<strong>of</strong> ecological responses to climate change thanare global averages (Walther et al. 2002).<strong>Impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> climate change should therefore notonly be studied on ocean basin scales, but alsoat regional and local scales. Such regionsencompass coastal areas from river basins andestuaries to the seaward boundaries <strong>of</strong>continental shelves and the outer margins <strong>of</strong>the major current systems.In addition to the specific characteristics <strong>of</strong> aparticular region (e.g. coastal versus shelfseas), the response <strong>of</strong> marine systems toclimate change will also depend on otherhuman-induced changes in the marineenvironment. For example, fishing has reducedthe number <strong>of</strong> large fish at higher trophic levelsworldwide (Pauly et al. 1998; Jackson et al.2001; Myers and Worm 2003), whilstincreasing agricultural, industrial andhousehold activities have resulted in nutrientenrichment <strong>of</strong> many coastal waters (Schindler2006). These and other global changes-5

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal Draftinduced effects, such as ocean acidification,contamination and the introduction <strong>of</strong> nonindigenousspecies, are likely to result in morefragile marine ecosystems, which will challengethe effectiveness <strong>of</strong> the management strategiesto reduce the impacts <strong>of</strong> climate change.Observed changes in (a) global mean temperature, (b) global average sea level rise from tide gauge(blue) and satellite (red) data, and (c) Northern Hemisphere snow cover for March-April. All changes arerelative to the 1961-1990 average values. Dots represent yearly values, solid lines are 10-y runningmeans, and shaded areas indicate the uncertainty intervals around the running means (InternationalPanel on <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> 2007).While national and international actions tocurtail and reduce greenhouse gas emissionsare being implemented, the levels <strong>of</strong>greenhouse gases currently in the atmosphereand their impacts are likely to persist forseveral decades. Accordingly, while on-goingefforts to mitigate climate change throughreductions in greenhouse gas emissions arecrucial, a more pro-active adaptive strategy isrequired. This could include a betterunderstanding <strong>of</strong> potential climate changeimpacts at both regional and local levels(scenarios), the development <strong>of</strong> improvedmethods to quantify the uncertainty <strong>of</strong> climatechange projections, the construction <strong>of</strong>“Although there can be no certaintyregarding the precise nature and rate <strong>of</strong>changes to the marine environment due toalterations in climate, in the absence <strong>of</strong>policies and measures to prepare for andaccommodate the changes, even the moremoderate <strong>of</strong> the predicted scenarios wouldhave major social and economic impacts.”Boelens et al. (2005)usable climate change indicators, and animprovement <strong>of</strong> the interface betweenscience and policy formulation in terms <strong>of</strong> riskmanagement (American Meteorological Society2003).6

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal DraftThe Millennial Temperature Record © Copyright 2000, Climatic Research Unit (www.cru.uea.ac.uk)1.2 <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> and <strong>Climate</strong> Variability“Recent research, including the examination<strong>of</strong> ice cores and growth rings <strong>of</strong> ancient trees,shows that the Northern Hemisphere hasbeen warmer since 1980 than at any timeduring the last 2000 years.”Mann et al. (2003)Moberg et al. (2005)Whilst weather conditions fluctuate daily,monthly and seasonally, climatic regimes varyon decadal to millennial time scales. Thegeological record shows that climate haschanged significantly over time. For example,during the last Ice Age (began 130.000 yearsago, ended 10.000 years ago) most <strong>of</strong> northernEurope was under snow and ice. In contrast,Europe experienced periods <strong>of</strong> significantwarmth during medieval times (890 – 1170)and colder periods during the so-called LittleIce Age (1580 – 1850) (Osborn and Briffa2006). In the last century there was a warmperiod (1930 – 1960s) followed by a coolerperiod (1970s) with temperatures rising againafter 1980 (Johannessen et al. 2004). In otherwords, climate is always changing. However,today’s concern is: are the observed changesin climate beyond previously observedranges? If so, what will be the future rates <strong>of</strong>these changes and what are the implicationsfor our world?The 4th Assessment Report <strong>of</strong> theIntergovernmental Panel for <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong>(IPCC 2007) concludes that 11 <strong>of</strong> the last 12years rank among the eleven warmest years inthe instrumental record <strong>of</strong> global surfacetemperature (since 1850). The totaltemperature increase from 1850-1899 to 2001-2005 is 0.76°C, and this increase in mainly dueto the linear warming trend over the last 50years <strong>of</strong> 0.13°C per decade. For the next twodecades, a warming <strong>of</strong> about 0.2°C per decadeis projected for a range <strong>of</strong> emission scenarios.Even if the concentrations <strong>of</strong> all greenhousegases and aerosols had been kept constant atyear 2000 levels, a further warming <strong>of</strong> about0.1°C per decade would be expected mainlydue to the slow response <strong>of</strong> the oceans inadapting to absorb these levels <strong>of</strong> greenhousegases (IPCC 2007). Depending on the scenarioapplied, temperatures are predicted to rise by1.8°C to 4.0°C in 2090-2099 as compared with1980-1999 (IPCC 2007).Because <strong>of</strong> the uncertainties outlined above,there is much speculation regarding associatedchanges in regional climatic conditions and theimplications for aquatic and terrestrialecosystems.7

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal DraftBOX 1 Signals <strong>of</strong> large-scale interactions between ocean and atmosphereTwo <strong>of</strong> the largest signals <strong>of</strong> ocean/atmosphere interaction are the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The latter is theAtlantic part <strong>of</strong> the Arctic Oscillation (AO), also called the Northern Hemisphere Annual Mode (NAM)(Delworth and Dixon 2000; Thompson and Wallace 1998, 2001). The atmospheric variability overthe North Atlantic is predominantly determined by the NAO.The NAO index is the difference in sea level pressure anomalies between two stations representingthe Azores High and the Icelandic Low pressure systems and is a measure <strong>of</strong> the strength <strong>of</strong> thewesterly winds across the North Atlantic. During a positive NAO the westerly winds are stronger andconditions are colder and drier than average over the Northwest Atlantic (eastern Canada toGreenland) and the Mediterranean region, whereas conditions in northern Europe and the easternUnited States are warmer and wetter than average. Winter temperature, precipitation, sea-icedistribution and movement in the Arctic, winter storminess, ocean wave heights, marine ecosystems,fisheries, sea-ice coverage in marginal seas, hurricane occurrence and tracks in the Caribbean andthe severity <strong>of</strong> winters over an extensive area stretching from Siberia to central USA and Norway toMorocco have been shown to be modulated by the NAO (Marshall et al. 2001).1.3 Role <strong>of</strong> the Oceans in <strong>Climate</strong> RegulationThe oceans play a key role in the regulation <strong>of</strong>climate. They store, distribute and dissipateenergy from solar radiation and exchange withthe atmosphere. In turn, the oceans areaffected by the climatic conditions they help tocreate. Constituting more than 70% <strong>of</strong> thesurface <strong>of</strong> the Earth, the oceans and shelf seasimplement their role as a regulator <strong>of</strong> climate:as the main reservoir and distributor <strong>of</strong> heatand salt; by influencing weather patterns andstorm tracks; as the primary water source onthe globe and modulator <strong>of</strong> evaporation,precipitation and water vapour in theatmosphere; by contributing to the formation,distribution and melting <strong>of</strong> sea-ice; as theprimary storage medium for greenhouse gasessuch as carbon dioxide (CO 2 ),via an activebiological system that plays a crucial role in thecarbon cycle; and through rising sea levels andan increasing frequency <strong>of</strong> storm surges.The oceans have an immense capacity to storeheat (when compared with the atmosphere).They also show great variability in theconcentration in salinity due to the changingbalance between evaporation and precipitation.Spatial differences in temperature and salinitygenerate density-driven circulation patternsthat redistribute water masses between theequator and the poles. In the Atlantic, thisThermohaline Circulation (THC) helps toensure that Europe is much warmer thanequivalent latitudes in North America, ; Europeis 6°C warmer at 44°N and 15°C at 63°N thanis Northe America. Slowing down <strong>of</strong> the AtlanticTHC could have a severe, and possiblysudden, impact on the climate <strong>of</strong> Europe.8

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal DraftThe thermohaline circulation (THC) is a global ocean circulation pattern that distributes water and heatboth vertically, through the water column, and horizontally across the globe. As cold water sinks at highlatitudes, it pulls warmer water from lower latitudes to replace it (Credit: Intergovernmental panel on<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong>)The amount <strong>of</strong> heat in the upper ocean andhow it is geographically distributed governsatmospheric pressure, storm tracks and thedevelopment <strong>of</strong> severe weather such ashurricanes and cyclones; a majorreorganisation <strong>of</strong> heat patterns would havesevere impacts on weather conditions. With avolume <strong>of</strong> close to 1400 million km³, the oceansplay a vital role in the water cycle <strong>of</strong> the Earth.Evaporation and precipitation patterns willchange as temperatures rise, and with thedistribution <strong>of</strong> atmospheric pressure. Thesemodifications can alter the timing and intensity<strong>of</strong> monsoons, droughts and floods, and theoccurrence <strong>of</strong> exceptional weather events.Variations in the extent <strong>of</strong> sea-ice cover inpolar regions have a major impact on climate,as ice reflects 30% <strong>of</strong> the incoming solarradiation. A warming ocean in seasonally icecoveredseas will contribute to more rapidmelting <strong>of</strong> sea-ice.The oceans are able to absorb large quantities<strong>of</strong> the greenhouse gas CO 2 (37,000gigatonnes <strong>of</strong> carbon are stored in the deepocean). CO 2 at the surface <strong>of</strong> the ocean is inequilibrium with the air and moves freelybetween the two media. When chemicallytransformed into dissolved and particulateforms <strong>of</strong> carbon, CO 2 is transferred to the deepocean by mixing and sinking and by a steadyrain <strong>of</strong> particulate carbon sourced from theplankton and from shelf export. Without thisoceanic uptake, concentrations <strong>of</strong> CO 2 in theatmosphere would be much higher. Since thebeginning <strong>of</strong> the XIX h century the oceans areestimated to have taken up approximately 50%<strong>of</strong> fossil fuel emissions and approximately 30%<strong>of</strong> all anthropogenic emissions (including thoseoriginating from land-use change). The NorthAtlantic plays a particularly key role as it hasstored 23% <strong>of</strong> the total CO 2 sink in an area thatcovers only 15% <strong>of</strong> the global ocean. Warming<strong>of</strong> the surface <strong>of</strong> the ocean is expected toreduce its capacity to take up CO 2 .Phytoplankton accounts for approximately 50%<strong>of</strong> the total photosynthesis on Earth, andprovides food for higher trophic levels. Thesemicroalgae and photosynthetic bacteriacontribute to the removal <strong>of</strong> CO 2 , because aproportion <strong>of</strong> their production is transferred asdetritus to the deep ocean, either by sinking orvia food webs. Changing composition andseasonal timing <strong>of</strong> the plankton, due to risingtemperatures, may affect the efficiency <strong>of</strong> thisdownward transfer known as the biologicalpump. Many planktonic groups, including thelarval stages <strong>of</strong> shellfish, have calcareous bodyparts. Their existence is threatened by theincreasing acidity <strong>of</strong> the ocean caused byhigher levels <strong>of</strong> CO 2 and may provide afeedback that could further reduce the ability <strong>of</strong>the oceans to take up CO 2 from theatmosphere.9

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal Draft2 PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE CLIMATE2.1 Forecasts and ScenariosEstimates <strong>of</strong> what the future climate will be like(projections) are typically made using coupledocean/atmosphere/sea ice/land models. GlobalCirculation Models (GCMs) describe the timeevolution <strong>of</strong> atmospheric variables such astemperature, winds, precipitation, water vapourand atmospheric pressure throughout the globein response to increasing atmospheric CO 2concentrations. When a projection iscategorised as most likely it becomes aforecast or prediction. A scenario, on theother hand, is a plausible description <strong>of</strong> apossible future state <strong>of</strong> the world. It is not aforecast; rather, each scenario is onealternative image <strong>of</strong> how the future may unfold.The baseline is the standard against whichchanges are measured, usually present-dayconditions or the 30-year standard period from1961 to 1990 used by meteorologists.Because there is uncertainty as to how rapidlyatmospheric concentration <strong>of</strong> CO 2 will increase,the primary body leading investigations int<strong>of</strong>uture climate change, namely the IPCC, hasdevised several possibilities (scenarios) basedon the rate <strong>of</strong> population increase, economicdevelopment and technology change. Manystudies (for example, the Arctic <strong>Climate</strong> ImpactAssessment: ACIA 2005) use the B2intermediate scenario which describes aworld with moderate population growth,economic development and technologychange. This scenarion predicts in a doubling<strong>of</strong> atmospheric CO 2 after approximately 80years.Variations <strong>of</strong> the Earth’s surface temperature between 1900 and 2100 as predicted under six scenarios(B1, A1T, B2, A1B, A2, A1FI) where solid lines represent average measured (black) and predictedvalues and shading denotes the plus/minus one standard deviation range <strong>of</strong> individual model annualmeans. The gray bars at the right indicate the best estimate (solid line within each bar) and the likelyrange assessed for the six scenarios (International panel on <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong>).A set <strong>of</strong> CO 2 scenarios can be used to reflectthe range <strong>of</strong> uncertainty in projections from aparticular model. In addition, their results willnot be identical because different GCMs candiffer in their spatial resolution, representation<strong>of</strong> physical processes and boundary conditions.Since no one model can be indicated as thecorrect one, model results tend to be averagedto produce a multi-model average, as if eachmodel is one experimental representation. Thespread in the model estimates is considered torepresent our uncertainty.The horizontal spatial resolution <strong>of</strong> GCMs hasgenerally been too coarse (with typical grid11

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal Draftsizes <strong>of</strong> 200-400 km) to resolve local orregional topography. For regional and localimpact studies, therefore, the approach hasbeen to develop higher resolution (with typicalgrid sizes <strong>of</strong> 1-20 km) regional climatemodels, using the results from the GCMs asboundary conditions.Some European countries, such as the UK,Sweden and Spain, have developed regionalforecasts with a variety <strong>of</strong> different emissionscenarios based on low, medium-low, mediumhigh,and high emissions, for three thirty-yeartime periods (centred on the 2020s, 2050s and2080s). The baseline convention for thesescenarios is 1961-1990 (Hulme et al. 2002).2.2 Model Scenarios for EuropeIt is estimated that annual air temperatures willrise throughout Europe relative to recentconditions, with the lowest increase (1°C to2°C) in the Mediterranean, Iberian, North Sea,Northeast Atlantic and south Nordic Searegions (IPCC 2001). Temperature increaseswill be higher (4°C to 6°C) in the more northernregions such as the northern Nordic Seas andthe Barents Sea, and highest (up to 7°C) in theArctic (ACIA 2005). Due to its high capacity tostore heat, the ocean will not warm quite asmuch as the land will. The frequency <strong>of</strong>extremely high air and ocean temperatures willincrease and the frequency <strong>of</strong> extremely lowtemperatures will decrease throughout Europe(IPCC 2001). There will be a decrease in thedaily temperature range, with night time lowsincreasing more than daytime highs.Precipitation and run<strong>of</strong>f will increase innorthern Europe and the Arctic, but willdecrease in warmer regions such as theMediterranean (IPCC 2001). In the Arcticannual precipitation is projected to increase by20%, with a 30% increase during the winter(ACIA 2005). With the increase in temperature,more precipitation will fall as rain in northernand upland regions resulting in an increase inwinter run<strong>of</strong>f and a decrease in spring run<strong>of</strong>f. Athigher altitudes, much <strong>of</strong> the precipitation willcontinue to fall as snow in winter, but the springpeak in run<strong>of</strong>f will occur slightly earlier. Theintensity <strong>of</strong> winter rainfall events north <strong>of</strong> 45°Nis expected to increase while to the south therewill be an insignificant change or a decrease inintensity (Frei et al. 2006). In central Europeriver run<strong>of</strong>f will change by approximately 10%by the 2050s, but this is smaller than theobserved natural multidecadal variability(Hulme et al. 1999). In Mediterranean regions,the range in river flows between winter andsummer is likely to increase considerably whilein maritime Western Europe there will be asmaller increase..As temperatures rise, sea-ice coverage willdecrease; most climate models suggest an icefreesummer in the Arctic by 2100 (IPCC 2001;Teng 2006). In the Barents Sea, the winter iceedgeis projected to retreat at an approximaterate <strong>of</strong> 10 km per year northward; the BarentsSea is predicted to be ice-free by 2070 (Fureviket al. 2002). A significant loss <strong>of</strong> ice cover inthe western Nordic Seas is expected, which by2070 will be restricted to the northwesternGreenland Sea and the Baltic.The projected melting ice and increasedprecipitation and river run<strong>of</strong>f in northernlatitudes will lead to decreases in surfacesalinity in the order <strong>of</strong> 0.5 to 1 ppm in theArctic Ocean, the western regions <strong>of</strong> the NordicSeas and in the Baltic by the 2070s (Furevik etal. 2002).Based on current model simulations, it is verylikely that the Meridional OverturningCirculation (MOC, see Section 3 for adescription) will slow down during the 21 stcentury (IPCC 2007). This gradual weakening<strong>of</strong> the MOC may be in the order <strong>of</strong> 20% to 25%(Hadley Centre; www.met-<strong>of</strong>fice.gov.uk/corporate/scitech0304/MetOfficeScience0304.pdf), depending on future emissions (IPCC2007). However, temperatures in the Atlanticregion, including Europe, will continue to warm,due to the atmospheric warming effect <strong>of</strong> thegreenhouse gases (IPCC 2007).“Under scenarios <strong>of</strong> faster industrialdevelopment leading to higher CO 2 levelsthan those assumed for the B2 scenario,temperatures in the Arctic are projected toincrease up to 14°C by 2100.”Teng et al. (2006)With melting ice caps and higher oceantemperatures, sea level is expected to risethroughout the globe by 18 cm to 59 cm by the2090s (IPCC 2007). If the contribution to theseprojections by the ice flow from Greenland andAntarctica were included, it is estimated thatsea levels would rise by an additional 10 cm to20 cm (IPCC 2007). Low-lying areas adjacentto regions with low tidal range such as alongthe coasts <strong>of</strong> the Mediterranean, Baltic andBlack Sea are more vulnerable than most <strong>of</strong>the Atlantic Ocean and North Sea coasts(Nicholls and Mimura 1998).12

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal DraftIt is predicted that after CO 2 emissions are reduced and atmospheric concentrations stabilise, surfaceair temperature will continue to rise slowly for a century or more. Thermal expansion <strong>of</strong> the ocean willcontinue long after CO 2 emissions have been reduced, and melting <strong>of</strong> ice sheets will contribute to sealevel rise for many centuries into the future (Credit: Intergovernmental Panel on <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong>).13

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal Draft3 POSSIBLE RESPONSES AND IMPACTS3.1 Physical responses and impacts<strong>Change</strong>s in the ocean to the west <strong>of</strong> Europewill have important effects on the weatherpatterns <strong>of</strong> Europe. The Atlantic MeridionalOverturning Circulation (MOC) refers to thenorthward flow <strong>of</strong> ocean water, its subsequentcooling and sinking in the North Atlantic andthe return southward flow at intermediate andnear bottom depths. This process contributesabout 90% to the oceanic south–north heatfluxes in the North Atlantic and is thus mostsignificant for European climate and itsvariability (Quadfasel 2005). A slowdown <strong>of</strong> theAtlantic MOC has been suggested as possiblycausing a drop in temperatures over Europe <strong>of</strong>as much as 4°C (Quadfasel 2005). However,while recent observations indicate that thereturned subsurface flow associated with theMOC has slowed down due to reducedconvective sinking, there is no evidence thatthe near surface flows have decreased (Brydenet al. 2005).<strong>Climate</strong>-induced changes in Arctic sea-icecover and thickness represent one <strong>of</strong> thelargest uncertainties in the prediction <strong>of</strong> futuretemperature rise (Laxon et al. 2003; Macdonaldet al. 2005). The extent <strong>of</strong> the perennial Arcticsea-ice has decreased in extent by about 15%since 1980 (Francis et al. 2005). Furthermore,the ice became less thick and its compositionshifted towards more first-year ice, which meltsfaster than multi-year ice (Macdonald et al.2005). A continuation <strong>of</strong> the observed increasein the length <strong>of</strong> the melt season is expected tolead to further overall thinning <strong>of</strong> sea-ice(Laxon et al. 2003), resulting in an ice-freeArctic during summer within 100 years(Johannessen et al. 2004).“New evidence on the melting <strong>of</strong> icesheets indicates that a sea level rise <strong>of</strong> 7m could occur within 500 rather than 1000years.”Alley et al. (2005)Dowdeswell (2006)Elevated summer temperatures will strengthennear-surface stratification and decrease theability <strong>of</strong> the winter winds to mix the watercolumn (e.g. McClain et al. 2004; Llope et al.2006). Several coupled ocean-atmospheremodels have shown global warming to beaccompanied by an increase in verticalstratification (IPCC 2001).Coastal communities in the Arctic have used sea walls and other man-made barriers to hold backerosion. These measures have worked to an extent, but as areas <strong>of</strong> open water become larger, waveand wind effects also increase and eat away at these temporary solutions (Credit: Tony A. WeyiouannaSr).Increased storminess will exacerbate the effect<strong>of</strong> sea level rise in coastal systems due to thehigher frequency <strong>of</strong> storm surges and extremewave action. Wetland losses due to sea levelrise are expected to be in the order <strong>of</strong> 17%along the Atlantic coasts, 31%-100% along theMediterranean coast and 84%-98% along theBaltic coast (IPCC 2001). Greater defence <strong>of</strong>these coastlines to prevent coastal flooding willlead to additional loss <strong>of</strong> coastal habitats(IPCC 1990). Offshore structures andinstallations for hydrocarbon extraction andrenewable energy will also be at greater risk.14

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal Draft3.2 Biological responses and impacts<strong>Climate</strong> change is expected to have a range <strong>of</strong>effects on marine systems. Some effects maybe related to changing water temperatures,circulation or habitat, while others occurthrough altered pathways withinbiogeochemical cycles and foodwebs. <strong>Climate</strong>change may influence nutrient and contaminantconcentrations via ocean currents andfluctuations in the depth <strong>of</strong> the surface mixedlayer and period <strong>of</strong> vertical stratification.<strong>Climate</strong>-induced changes in microorganisms,such as bacteria and Archea, will affectbiogeochemical cycles, e.g. those <strong>of</strong> nitrogen,iron and sulphites. In estuaries and upwellingareas, changes in strength and seasonality <strong>of</strong>circulation patterns can affect the retentiondispersionmechanism <strong>of</strong> planktonic larvae(Gaines and Bertness 1992). An increase inprecipitation-driven flooding will particularlyaffect estuaries through enhanced river run<strong>of</strong>fand changes in nutrients and salinity incoastalregions, including aquaculture areas.Summer droughts will lead to increasedsalinisation <strong>of</strong> upper reaches in northernEurope and hypersalinisation <strong>of</strong> estuaries andlagoons in the south.Increasing temperatures and enhancedstratification could affect the amount andproduction <strong>of</strong> phytoplankton. Because thesepelagic microalgae are responsible forremoving CO 2 from the atmosphere andtransferring the carbon to higher trophic levels,any change in the timing, abundance orspecies composition <strong>of</strong> these primaryproducers will have consequences on the rest<strong>of</strong> the marine foodweb. A meta-analysis <strong>of</strong> anumber <strong>of</strong> models suggests an increase inglobal primary production <strong>of</strong> between 1% and8% by 2050, when compared to pre-industrialtimes (Sarmiento et al. 2004).In open marine ecosystems the populationdynamics <strong>of</strong> many species <strong>of</strong> marineinvertebrates and fish are driven byrecruitment processes. Recruitment refers tothe number <strong>of</strong> young that are added to thepopulation each year. Recruitment in coldtemperate species is <strong>of</strong>ten synchronised withseasonal production cycles <strong>of</strong> phytoplankton. Ifwarming results in advancement <strong>of</strong> the timing<strong>of</strong> reproduction <strong>of</strong> these species, this mayresult in a mismatch with the presence <strong>of</strong> theirmain food source (phytoplankton). Anysubsequent decrease in recruitment successwill inevitably lead to shifts in speciescomposition.In general, a rapidly warming environmentwould be expected to result in apoewardmovement <strong>of</strong> species. Such a change ingeographical distribution occurred at the end<strong>of</strong> the last glacial maximum with thecolonisation <strong>of</strong> northern seas and coasts. Morerecently, during the cold period <strong>of</strong> the 1970ssome species shifted southwards. Sincewarming accelerated in the late 1980s,poleward advances <strong>of</strong> southern species andretreats <strong>of</strong> northern species have beenrecorded in zooplankton, fish and benthicspecies, including those found on rocky shores(Brander et al. 2003; Southward et al. 2005).When encountering unfavourableenvironmental conditions, species distributionmay not always exhibit displavcementnorthwards. For example, when the main prey<strong>of</strong> the harp seals in the Barents Sea collapsed,these seals migrated southward along thecoast <strong>of</strong> Norway and into the North Sea insearch <strong>of</strong> food (Harkönen et al. 2006).<strong>Climate</strong>-induced decoupling <strong>of</strong> phenologicalrelationships (relative timing <strong>of</strong> life cycleevents) may locally affect community structureand food webs by altering the interactionbetween a species and its competitors,mutualists, predators, prey or pathogens. Forexample, in the case <strong>of</strong> sea birds, chick dietcomposition during development is likely to bean important mechanistic link between climatevariability and the observed decline in seabirdpopulations (Kitaysky et al. 2005). Also, withreference to cod population, a shift from largeto smaller copepod species resulted in anenhanced prey availability and subsequentsurvival <strong>of</strong> cod larvae during the 1970s, the socalled“gadoid-outburst” (Beaugrand et al.2003). Further temperature rises are likely toinfluence entire ecosystem assemblages(Genner et al. 2004), as well as havingpr<strong>of</strong>ound impacts on exploitation <strong>of</strong> livingmarine resources (Perry et al. 2005).“In the North Sea, nearly two-thirds <strong>of</strong> thefish species have shifted their meanlatitude and/or depth over the last 25years”Perry et al. (2005)Rapid warming can accelerate establishment<strong>of</strong> non-indigenous species, many <strong>of</strong> whichhave been shown to do better under thewarmer conditions experienced in recent years(Stachowicz et al. 2002). When the Pacificoyster (Crasostrea gigas) was introduced innorthwestern Europe as a potential aquaculturespecies, it was not expected to reproduce, dueto the relatively cold water temperatures.However, the recent warming (in associationwith its possible adaptation to its newenvironment) has now removed this species’reproductive barrier, resulting in massiveproliferation <strong>of</strong> C. gigas, especially in theNetherlands, but also in the UK (Reise et al.2004). Non-native species from coastlines witha strong continental influence and seasonalextremes (e.g; Asia, east coast <strong>of</strong> America)whose larvae are transported to European15

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal Draftwaters by means <strong>of</strong> ballast water, may alreadybe very well adapted to the warmed waters <strong>of</strong>Europe.European policies on management <strong>of</strong> marineresources (e.g. European Common FisheriesPolicy, Marine Thematic Strategy) and marineconservation (e.g. the Bird and HabitatDirectives and Natura 2000 network) can neverassume that the marine environment isrelatively stable.Even without human-induced climate change,natural variability and evolutionary processescontinuously alter biodiversity andbiogeography <strong>of</strong> species (Leslie et al. 2005).<strong>Climate</strong> change may cause serious problemsfor this type <strong>of</strong> management when marinesystems become even more dynamic andvariable than before.A climatic regime shift during the mid-1970s in the North Pacificresulted in decreased availability <strong>of</strong> lipid-rich fish to seabirds andwas followed by a dramatic decline in number <strong>of</strong> kittiwakes.Experiments revealed that diets low in lipids induce nutritionalstress and impair cognitive abilities in young red-leggedkittiwakes, which is likely to result in their increased mortalityand low recruitment rates(Kitaysky et al. 2005) (Photo by DeanKildaw /U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service).16

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal Draft4 REGIONAL RESPONSES AND IMPACTS4.1 INTRODUCTION<strong>Climate</strong> change is expected to affect differentregions in different ways, including:• Observed trends and expectedchanges strongly differ throughout theglobe. Warming will be morepronounced at the poles than at theequator (MacDonald et al. 2005).• The responses to climate change areexpected to differ for different marinesystems. For example, while openoceans are more affected by theinfluence <strong>of</strong> wind on the timing andstrength <strong>of</strong> stratification, coastal areasare more vulnerable to the effects <strong>of</strong>wind via storm surges. In addition toexpected warming <strong>of</strong> seawater, polarregions will experience changes in icecover.“Between 1993 and 2003, in Australia, sealevel increased at a rate <strong>of</strong> more than 30mm y -1 whilst a decrease in sea level <strong>of</strong>more than 20 mm y -1 was observed in parts<strong>of</strong> the northeastern Pacific.”Holgate & Woodworth (2005)75Nordic Seas7065Barents Sea60Northeast Atlantic55North SeaBaltic Sea504540Celtic-Biscay ShelfIberian upwellingmarginWestern MediterraneanBlack SeaEastern Mediterranean3530Central Mediterranean-40-35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 - 0 5 1 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50European marine and coastal environments for which temperature time series were compiled (Mapcompiled by Priscilla Licandro/SAHFOS and Katja Philippart/NIOZ)During the past 10 years, sea-surfacetemperatures (SST) appear to be rising andexceptionally high temperatures have occurredin all European marine waters, except for theBlack Sea. During the past 75 years, areaaveragedsea-surface temperatures werelowest in the Barents Sea (less than 5°C),followed by the Nordic Seas and the Baltic Sea(5°C to 10°C temperature range), and the NorthSea and Celtic-Biscay shelf (10°C to 15°C),and higher in the Northeast Atlantic and theBlack Sea (15°C to 17°C), whilst warmestwaters were found in the Iberian upwellingmargin and Mediterranean basins (18°C to20°C). Due to the ice coverage, long-termobservations <strong>of</strong> sea-surface temperature arenot available for the Arctic. Variations in sea-iceextent, however, may be considered as anindex <strong>of</strong> changes in sea surface temperature(see Section 4.2).17

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal DraftBaltic SeaBarents Sea1039281930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20001930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Black SeaCeltic-Biscay shelf141613151930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000121930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Central MediterraneanEastern Mediterranean21201920181930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Iberian upwelling margin19191930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Nordic Seas7.6186.8171930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20006.01930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 200016North East Atlantic11North Sea1510141930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 200091930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Western Mediterranean2019181930 1940 1950 1970 1980 1990 2000Long-term variation in area-averaged sea-surface temperatures (°C) in European marine and coastalenvironments based on HadSST2 data from the Hadley Centre, UK (data compiled by PriscillaLicandro/SAHFOS and Katja Philippart/NIOZ).18

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal Draft4.2 ARCTIC OCEANDescription <strong>of</strong> the areaThe Arctic Ocean consists <strong>of</strong> the deep (> 4000m) Eurasian, Markov and Canada Basins, thesurrounding continental shelf seas (Barents,White, Kara, Laptev, East Siberian, Chucki,and Beaufort Seas) and the CanadianArchipelago.Pacific waters enter the Arctic Ocean throughthe Bering Strait (Woodgate and Aagaard,2005) and, augmented by freshwater run<strong>of</strong>fand forced by the mean winds, most flowtowards the Atlantic Ocean in the Trans-ArcticDrift. The clockwise Beaufort Gyre is locatedlandward <strong>of</strong> the Trans-Arctic Drift on theCanadian side.The majority <strong>of</strong> the water from the Arctic exitsthe region through the Fram Strait <strong>of</strong>fnortheastern Greenland, although some wateralso makes its way through the CanadianArchipelago. Water from the Atlantic Oceanenters the Arctic through the Barents Sea andthe eastern Fram Strait.The Arctic Ocean (Credit: SAHFOS - Marine Institute )19

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal DraftSignals <strong>of</strong> climate changeThe Arctic climate has varied on geological tointerannual time scales. In the last century theclimate shifted from generally cold conditions inthe early 1900s to a warm period from the1920s to the 1950s, cooled again through the1960s and 1970s before the recent warming(Johannessen et al. 2004). Decreases andincreases in the seasonal ice coverage andthickness have been recorded concurrent withthese warm and cool periods (Johannessen etal. 2004; ACIA 2005).The recent warming in the Arctic has beenunprecedented, with annual mean airtemperatures rising at a rate 50% greater thanfrom Iceland to the equator (ACIA 2005) and inthe advection pattern <strong>of</strong> warm air from thesouth (Overland et al. 2004). The recentwarming has resulted in vast reductions in theamount <strong>of</strong> multi-year ice, a 20% decrease inthe summer extent <strong>of</strong> the Arctic sea-ice duringthe last 30 years <strong>of</strong> the last century(Johannessen et al. 1999) and a thinning <strong>of</strong> theice by up to 2 m in the central Arctic betweenthe 1960s and the 1990s (Rothrock and Zhang2005).With less sea-ice, the decrease in the albedoeffect led to increased absorption <strong>of</strong> the solarheating, thereby adding to the increased rate <strong>of</strong>warming (ACIA 2005). Additional warming(over 1°C) occurred at intermediate depths inthe Arctic Ocean, especially in the EurasianBasin, due to increased inflow <strong>of</strong> warm Atlanticwater (Polyakov et al. 2005). The boundarybetween Atlantic and Pacific waters shiftedtowards the Pacific from the Lomonosov Ridgeto the Mendeleyev-Alpha Ridge and thepercent Atlantic waters in the Canada Basinincreased (McLaughlin et al. 2002). Sea-icemelt, coupled with increased river run<strong>of</strong>f intothe Arctic, led to freshening <strong>of</strong> the surfacelayers and a rise in sea level (ACIA 2005).Because <strong>of</strong> the extensive ice cover, difficultlogistics, few inhabitants, and no commercialfisheries in the high Arctic, there are fewpublished studies on the biologicalconsequences <strong>of</strong> past climate changes in thisregion (ACIA 2005). However, benthic studiesin the Chukchi Sea north <strong>of</strong> the Bering Seahave shown population changes in thedominant species, which are thought to berelated to changing hydrographic conditions(Grebmeier et al. 1995).“Sea-ice coverage will further decreasewith suggestions <strong>of</strong> an ice-free Arcticduring summer before 2100 and thus nomulti-year ice in winter.”ACIA (2005)Recent projections <strong>of</strong> future climate scenariosindicate continued warming with temperatureincreases in the order <strong>of</strong> 2° to 10°C over thiscentury (ACIA 2005). Increased precipitationwill result in higher river run<strong>of</strong>f adding to thefreshwater additions through ice melt. In theabsence <strong>of</strong> ice, surface waters will be exposedto wind-driven circulation (ACIA 2005). TheTranspolar Drift would shift eastwards to favourflow directly toward the Fram Strait. TheBeaufort Gyre may weaken and retreat into theCanada Basin with the position <strong>of</strong>Atlantic/Pacific Front tending to alignpermanently with the Mendeleyev-Alpha Ridge.Also, when summer ice retreats seaward <strong>of</strong> thecontinental slope, enhanced deep basin-shelfexchange <strong>of</strong> seawater will occur throughincreased wind-induced upwelling anddownwelling (Carmack and Chapman 2003).The retraction <strong>of</strong> the sea-ice and the enhancedexchange <strong>of</strong> deep-basin seawater will result inhigher light levels and nutrient concentrationson the shelves, leading to increased primaryproduction. Wind-driven vertical mixing is likelyto increase the depth <strong>of</strong> the surface mixedlayer. If the Arctic becomes ice-free in winter,the Nansen Basin may become a region <strong>of</strong>strong convection (sinking <strong>of</strong> cold dense water)and water mass formation. Predictedstrengthening <strong>of</strong> the westerly winds in theNordic Seas is expected to increase thetransport <strong>of</strong> Atlantic water entering the Arcticvia the Fram Strait and the Barents Sea (ACIA2005).Based upon our understanding <strong>of</strong> biologicalprocesses in the Arctic, some predictions <strong>of</strong> theimpacts <strong>of</strong> climate change can be made.Where sea-ice coverage is reduced, ice algalproduction will significantly decrease (ACIA2005). This loss <strong>of</strong> production will be more thanmade up for by increased open ocean planktonproduction in these ice-free regions because <strong>of</strong>higher light levels and increased nutrientconcentrations through enhanced verticalmixing. This production may be limited in someareas by the negative effects <strong>of</strong> increasedstratification from increased sea-ice melt andhigher surface layer temperatures. Benthicproduction is likely to decrease, but this willdepend upon the match/mismatch betweenphytoplankton and zooplankton, i.e. the amount<strong>of</strong> phytoplankton that sinks to the bottom beforebeing eaten (ACIA 2005).Higher production at the lower trophic levels isexpected to lead to increased zooplankton andfish production in the Arctic, although the extent<strong>of</strong> such an increase is uncertain (ACIA 2005).In contrast, the abundance <strong>of</strong> ice-dependentspecies such as polar bears, as well as someseals and seabirds is likely to decrease.Already polar bears are showing some signs <strong>of</strong>being in poor condition, associated with theProjections <strong>of</strong> climate change20

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal Draftdecrease <strong>of</strong> seal prey availability, which islinked to the decline in ice coverage.Distributional shifts in organisms, fromphytoplankton to marine mammals andseabirds, may result in the establishment <strong>of</strong>non-indigenous species in the Arctic, forcing afurther geographical retraction <strong>of</strong> native Arcticspecies and the possibility <strong>of</strong> some speciesdisappearing altogether.In 2006, polar bears were placed on the Red List <strong>of</strong> Threatened Species <strong>of</strong> the World ConservationUnion (IUCN). Due to their slow reproduction cycle and the speed <strong>of</strong> global warming, it seems unlikelythat polar bears will be able to adapt to the current warming trend in the Arctic. If climatic trendscontinue polar bears may diminish from most <strong>of</strong> their range within 100 years (www.iucnredlist.org)(credit: Ansgar Walk/Creative Commons Attribution ShareAlike 2.5 License applies).Current monitoring and researchprogrammes and projects in the Arctic• Monitoring and research programmes andprojects for the Arctic have beenexpanding during recent years althoughmost regions generally remainundersampled;• The international Arctic <strong>Climate</strong> ImpactAssessment was recently completed(ACIA 2005);• The Arctic Monitoring and AssessmentProgram (AMAP) has ongoing activities,especially related to contaminants;• Transports <strong>of</strong> water, heat and freshwaterto and from the Arctic are monitored andexamined by the Arctic/Subarctic OceanFluxes (ASOF);• The Circumpolar Biodiversity MonitoringProgram (CBMP) has been initiated in theArctic <strong>of</strong> which the first report is due outshortly;• Activities during the International PolarYear (IPY 2007-2008) are expected togreatly increase research andunderstanding <strong>of</strong> the role <strong>of</strong> climate on themarine ecosystems, as well as to expandmonitoring activities in the Arctic.21

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal Draft4.3 BARENTS SEADescription <strong>of</strong> the areaThe Barents Sea is one <strong>of</strong> the shallow shelfseas that collectively form the Arctic continentalshelf. Its western boundary is defined by theshelf break towards the Norwegian Sea, theeastern boundary by the Novaya Zemlyaarchipelago, the southern boundary by Norwayand Russia, and the northern boundary by thecontinental shelf break towards the deep ArcticOcean. The Barents Sea covers 1.4 millionkm2 with an average depth <strong>of</strong> 230 m and amaximum depth <strong>of</strong> approximately 500 m nearthe western entrance.Atlantic waters enter the Barents Sea betweenBear Island and northern Norway; they cooland freshen before exiting principally to thenorth <strong>of</strong> Novaya Zemlya. Most Arctic watersenter between Spitzbergen and Franz JosefLand and exit south <strong>of</strong> Spitzbergen (Loeng etal. 1995). A narrow transition zone, called thePolar Front, separates the Atlantic and Arcticwater masses. Winter convection in theBarents Sea also provides cold intermediatewater to the Arctic Ocean to a depth <strong>of</strong> 1200 mthrough sinking and subsequent northwardadvection (Schauer et al. 1997). Sea-icetypically covers the northern and easternregions <strong>of</strong> the Barents Sea in winter.The Barents Sea (Credit: SAHFOS and Marine Institute)Signals <strong>of</strong> climate change<strong>Climate</strong> variability in the Barents Sea, aselsewhere, occurs on a variety <strong>of</strong> time scales.At multidecadal periods, the waters in theBarents Sea have undergone similar changesto those in the Arctic, being relatively cold inthe late 19 th century and the early part <strong>of</strong> the20 th century, warm from the 1920s to the1950s, cool through the 1960s to the 1980sand warm during the last decade or more(Drinkwater 2006). These changes are due to acombination <strong>of</strong> atmospheric heating andcooling and variability in both the volume andtemperature <strong>of</strong> the incoming Atlantic waters(Ingvaldsen et al. 2003). In association withwarm and cool periods, sea-ice coverage hascontracted and expanded, respectively.Recently, sea-ice coverage has been near itslowest recorded level, although the 1930s wasanother period <strong>of</strong> low ice coverage.During the warm period <strong>of</strong> the 1920s to 1950s,the distribution <strong>of</strong> fish species such as cod,haddock and herring expanded northward andeastward (Drinkwater 2006). A similargeographic expansion <strong>of</strong> Atlantic associatedbenthic species occurred, while Arctic speciesdeclined (Berge et al. 2005).“During recent warming large numbers <strong>of</strong>blue whiting have extended northward asfar as the western entrance <strong>of</strong> the BarentsSea, and blue mussels have appeared inSvalbard after a 1000 year absence.”Berge et al. (2005)At interannual to decadal time scales, oceantemperature variability is correlated with theNAO with higher temperatures generallyassociated with the positive phase <strong>of</strong> the NAO(Ingvaldsen et al. 2003). The higher correlationafter the early 1970s is attributed to theeastward shift in the Icelandic Low (Ottersen etal. 2003). Interannual variation in the position <strong>of</strong>22

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal Draftthe ice-edge in a particular month is about 3°Cto 4°C <strong>of</strong> latitude.Projections <strong>of</strong> climate changeFurevik et al. (2002) modelled future climatescenarios for the Barents Sea. They suggestthat by 2080, surface ocean temperatures willwarm by 1°C to 2°C, winter sea-ice will almostdisappear, Atlantic waters will spread farthereastward and northward, there will be morecontinental run<strong>of</strong>f but this will be partiallycompensated by influx <strong>of</strong> higher salinity inAtlantic waters, and the surface mixed layerdepth will increase due to stronger winds.Under the projected warming in the BarentsSea, Atlantic water species <strong>of</strong> fish and benthosare expected to extend further east and north.Modelling studies (Slagstad and Wassmann1996) suggest primary production levels are400% higher in ice-free regions in a warm yearcompared to when these same areas are icecovered.Relative to the entire Barents Searegion, reduced ice cover will result in between8% (Ellingsen et al. 2006) to 30% (Slagstadand Wassmann 1996) increase in primaryproduction in years free <strong>of</strong> summer ice. This isdue to a combination <strong>of</strong> higher light levels inareas <strong>of</strong> decreased ice cover, higher nutrientlevels in the Atlantic waters where theyextended northward and eastward, and fasterturn-over times <strong>of</strong> the phytoplankton,associated with higher temperatures.This higher production is expected to result inincreased abundance <strong>of</strong> cod, haddock andother species (ACIA 2005). Improved growthrates together with expected increasedrecruitment will lead to increased yields inspecies such as cod, although this will dependto a large degree upon fishing intensity. Morefish will spawn farther north, as observed forcod (Drinkwater 2005), and new spawning sitesare likely to be established. Herring and bluewhiting will spread further eastward and salmonabundance is likely to increase in Russianwaters as previously observed (Lajus et al.2005) and to extend to northern Spitzbergen.Capelin will follow the Polar Front further to thenortheast to feed, but are expected to continueto spawn <strong>of</strong>f northern Norway. The distributionshifts <strong>of</strong> fish populations will bring more <strong>of</strong> themajor commercial species (such as cod andhaddock) into Russian waters, this distributionshift <strong>of</strong> commercial populations may requirerenegotiation <strong>of</strong> present fisheries treatiesbetween Norway and Russia.Historical and forecast sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice during March based on the Bergen<strong>Climate</strong> Model (Data Compiled by T. Furevik/UIB).23

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal DraftCurrent monitoring and researchprogrammes and projects in the BarentsSea• Russia has maintained the Kola Section (ahydrographic transect north <strong>of</strong> the Murmancoast) for over 100 years and has alsocarried out numerous benthic and fishsurveys;• Norway has undertaken annual fishsurveys to assess fish stocks for over 35years and in recent years these have beenexpanded to include other components <strong>of</strong>the ecosystem;• Norway has led projects investigating theimpact <strong>of</strong> climate evolution on the BarentsSea ecosystem, for example the earliercompleted Barents Sea Impact Study(BASIS); projects completed at the end <strong>of</strong>2006 include the Carbon Flux andEcosystem Feed Back in the NorthernBarents Sea in an era <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong>(CABANERA), Effects <strong>of</strong> North Atlantic<strong>Climate</strong> Variability on the Barents SeaEcosystem (ECOBE), Co-evolution <strong>of</strong> lifehistories <strong>of</strong> Calanus and herring in theNorwegian Sea (ADAPT), the <strong>Climate</strong> andProduction <strong>of</strong> Marine Resources (CliMar),and the Norwegian component <strong>of</strong> theEcosystem Study <strong>of</strong> Sub-ArcticEcosystems (NESSAS) will continue until2008;• In 2007-2008, several International PolarYear (IPY) activities are planned that focuson the effects <strong>of</strong> climate variability andchange on the Barents Sea ecosystem;these include ESSAR and ARCTOS-FLUXES .24

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal Draft4.4 NORDIC SEASDescription <strong>of</strong> the areaThe Nordic Seas, which include the Greenland,Norwegian and Iceland Seas, are a transitionzone for warm and saline Atlantic water on itsway to the Arctic, and for cold and less salinewaters flowing from the Arctic to the AtlanticOcean. The Greenland-Scotland Ridge forms abarrier between the deep waters <strong>of</strong> the NordicSeas and the North Atlantic.The eastern Norwegian Sea consists <strong>of</strong>relatively warm Atlantic water in the upperlayers (

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal DraftLarge ecosystem changes have been observedin the past. For example, the abundance <strong>of</strong>Norwegian spring spawning herring increasedduring the warming <strong>of</strong> the 1920s, decreasedduring the cooling period in the 1960s but hasrisen again since the temperature increases inthe 1990s (Toresen and Østvedt 2000). Duringwarm periods, i.e. 1920s-1950s, herringmigrated from their spawning locations on thewest coast <strong>of</strong> Norway and around the Faroes,and their nursery areas in the western BarentsSea to the feeding grounds <strong>of</strong>f northeasternIceland (Vilhjálmsson 1997). The overwinteringgrounds were primarily to the east <strong>of</strong> Iceland;then in spring the herring migrated back to theirspawning grounds.As the Arctic Front shifted southeastwardduring the colder 1960s, the herring feedinggrounds moved farther eastward and then tothe southwest <strong>of</strong> Spitzbergen. When theherring population declined to drastically lowlevels, those individuals remaining no longermigrated out into the Norwegian and Greenlandseas but stayed near the Norwegian coast toboth feed and spawn (Vilhjálmsson 1997). Inthe 1990s, as temperatures warmed and thepopulation increased, the population againbegan migrating back towards Iceland to feed(ACIA 2005).Capelin, the major prey <strong>of</strong> adult cod <strong>of</strong>f Iceland,have moved further northwest during the recentwarming requiring the capelin fleet to travelfurther in order to obtain their catches. Thisdistributional shift is somewhat similar to theresponse observed during the early XX thcentury warming period when the capelinpopulation shifted northward. Cod spawn alongthe south and southwest coasts <strong>of</strong> Iceland andtheir larvae drift northwards with manydeveloping <strong>of</strong>f the north coast <strong>of</strong> the island.In recent years, warm conditions due to theincreased influx <strong>of</strong> Atlantic waters <strong>of</strong>f northernIceland have led to higher level <strong>of</strong> codrecruitment (Jónsson and Vladimarsson 2005).This may be due to shorter time spent duringthe vulnerable larval stages, increased foodbecause <strong>of</strong> higher primary and secondaryproduction (Astthorsson and Vilhjálmsson2002) or a combination <strong>of</strong> both. The presence<strong>of</strong> Atlantic waters provides for an enhancedphytoplankton bloom that lasts longer due toreduced stratification and higher nutrientconcentrations than are found in Arctic waters.Time series <strong>of</strong> temperature with depth (left panel) in the central Greenland Sea (area shown in rightpanel). The black dots in the left panel represent station data (Credit: ICES Oceanographic Databaseand Service.)Projections <strong>of</strong> climate changeFurevik et al. (2002) reported on future climatescenarios for the Nordic Seas up to 2080.These included a 1°C to 2°C increase in seasurfacetemperatures, increased Atlantic flow tothe Norwegian Sea and north <strong>of</strong> Iceland but areduction in the overturning circulation, aweakening <strong>of</strong> the Nordic Sea Gyre, little if anyice on the East Greenland shelf, reduction inwinter convection in the Greenland Sea,reduced outflow through the Fram Strait, andfresher waters along the Greenland andNorwegian shelves due to increased run<strong>of</strong>f andin the case <strong>of</strong> Greenland, ice melt from theGreenland ice cap and sea-ice melt from theArctic.The biological response to these changes areexpected to include a slight increase in primaryproduction occurring north <strong>of</strong> Iceland, due togreater presence <strong>of</strong> Atlantic waters, and also<strong>of</strong>f East Greenland, associated with increasedlight levels due to the absence <strong>of</strong> ice. However,production in the ice-free areas will also beaffected by a limited nutrient supply due to the26

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal Draftincreased freshwater input from nutrient poorArctic rivers, which will increase verticalstratification. It is expected that the abundance<strong>of</strong> the Arctic zooplankton species Calanushyperboreus and C. glacialis will decrease,while the smaller C. finmarchicus that inhabitthe Atlantic waters should increase.The growth and condition <strong>of</strong> cod, haddock andcapelin should improve and these species willcontinue their movement northward, eventuallyoccupying the waters around Jan Mayen islandon a regular basis. Atlantic herring shouldagain begin to overwinter to the east <strong>of</strong> Icelandand move northwestwards with the Arctic Front.More southern species will invade the NordicSeas with some becoming frequent visitors.These invasions may lead to an increase <strong>of</strong>biodiversity within the fish communities <strong>of</strong> theNordic Seas.Current research and monitoringprogrammes and projects• The longest continuous monitoring <strong>of</strong>ocean temperature and salinity in the openNordic Seas is from the Ocean WeatherStation Mike (1948 to present);• Direct measurements <strong>of</strong> the water massexchanges between the Nordic Seas andboth the Atlantic and the Arctic Oceans bythe international community have beenongoing for over a decade as part <strong>of</strong>several different programmes and projects,most recently the ASOF project on Arcticand Subarctic Ocean Fluxes (Hansen et al.2001);• Annual ecosystem monitoring <strong>of</strong> theIceland Sea and the Norwegian Sea iscarried out by Iceland and Norway,respectively, as part <strong>of</strong> their fisheriesassessment work;• Much less attention has been paid to theGreenland Sea with most work conductedas part <strong>of</strong> special programmes such as the1957 International Geophysical Year(IGY);• The activities planned for InternationalPolar Year (IPY 2007-2008) include amajor study <strong>of</strong> capelin undertaken byIceland (Ecosystem <strong>of</strong> the Iceland SeaProject) and ecosystem studies in thevicinity <strong>of</strong> the Arctic Front undertaken byNorway.27

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal Draft4.5 NORTHEAST ATLANTICDescription <strong>of</strong> the areaThe Northeast Atlantic is referred to here as theocean to the east <strong>of</strong> the European shelf, to thenorth <strong>of</strong> a line from Gibraltar eastward to a linefrom the southern tip <strong>of</strong> Greenland, with theNordic Seas north <strong>of</strong> 62°N as its northernboundary. These are the oceanic waters withdepths mostly over 1000 m, which are closestto Europe. Topographically, the region includesthe north-south trending Mid-Atlantic Ridge withdeep abyssal plains to either side that extenddown to 5800 m in the southeast, and theRockall Bank that lies west <strong>of</strong> Scotland.Occasional sea mounts dot this landscape withthe volcanic archipelagos <strong>of</strong> the Azores,Madeira and Canary Islands to the south.This region plays a key role in the climate <strong>of</strong>Europe as heat is transferred to theatmosphere from the warm extension <strong>of</strong> theGulf Stream, the northeastward directed NorthAtlantic Current (NAC). To the north <strong>of</strong> theNAC, the circulation is anticlockwise in thecolder waters <strong>of</strong> the subpolar gyre and to thesouth <strong>of</strong> the NAC clockwise in the warmsubtropical gyre. Water with a subtropicalcomponent is also transferred from the south ina current that roughly follows the margin <strong>of</strong> theEuropean shelf. Saline water from theMediterranean overflows into the Atlantic atmid-water depths (1000 m), up to thesouthwest coast <strong>of</strong> France.The heat transferred from the ocean to theatmosphere as the oceanic waters are mixedby the wind and cool down in their generallynortheast-ward movement helps ensure,together with northeast-ward storm tracks, thatNorthwest Europe is much warmer on anannual basis than equivalent latitudes on thewestern side <strong>of</strong> the Atlantic (see Section 1.3).During the last Pleistocene glaciation, sea-iceextended as far south as 45°N with ice capsover the British Isles and much <strong>of</strong> continentalEurope. These colder conditions arehypothesised to have been generated by aslowing down by the North Atlantic MeridionalOverturning Circulation, MOC (see Section3.1).The Northeast Atlantic (Credit: SAHFOS and Marine Institute)28

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal DraftThe Northeast Atlantic plays a key role in thiscirculation as the warmer water is pulled intothe Arctic Ocean by deep convection <strong>of</strong> colddense water. This flows out into the Atlanticthrough the Faeroe-Shetland Channel flowingas a deep current to join a similar outflowthrough the Denmark Strait between Icelandand Greenland around the western margin <strong>of</strong>the Labrador Sea and thence south along theeastern margin <strong>of</strong> North America. The balancebetween these surface and deep-water flows isbelieved to be the key to large-scale climaticvariability in Northwest Europe.Signals <strong>of</strong> climate changeIt has been demonstrated that the southerlyoutflow through the Faeroe-Shetland Channeldecreased by 20% in the last 50 years (Hansenet al. 2001) and there is evidence from satelliteobservations that the northward flow <strong>of</strong> surfacewaters has reduced since the 1970s (Häkkinenand Rhines 2004). While recent observationsindicate that the returned subsurface flowassociated with the MOC has slowed down dueto reduced convective sinking, there is noevidence that the near surface flows havedecreased (Bryden et al. 2005).In the Northeast Atlantic to the south <strong>of</strong> thesubpolar gyre, sea-surface temperatures(SSTs) are highly positively correlated withsurface land and sea temperatures averagedfor the whole <strong>of</strong> the Northern Hemisphere. Inthe subboreal gyre, SST is inversely correlatedwith the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).Reduced circulation <strong>of</strong> the North AtlanticCurrent (NAC) and increased northward flow inthe shelf edge current are correlated withnegative winter NAO. This means that thestrength <strong>of</strong> the NAC and the poleward flowalong the continental edge are out <strong>of</strong> phase(Pingree 2002, 2005).“Over the last 40 years, warmer watergroups <strong>of</strong> plankton to the west <strong>of</strong> theBritish Isles have moved north by 1000km.”Beaugrand et al. (2002)Long-term changes from 1960 to 1999 in the mean number <strong>of</strong> warm-temperate species such asCalanus helgolandicus. In the eastern North Atlantic Ocean and European shelf seas, strongbiogeographical shifts in all copepod assemblages have occurred with a northward extension <strong>of</strong> morethan 10° latitude (Data compiled by G. Beaugrand).The increase in sea temperatures especially inwinter months since the mid-1980s has had amarked effect on plankton population andhigher trophic levels. Both plankton (Beaugrandet al. 2002) and mid-water to surface-water fish(Quero et al. 1998; Brander 2003) have shownsimilar northward range extensions. There isclear evidence that the levels <strong>of</strong> phytoplanktonconcentrations as measured by chlorophyllhave increased and that their season haslengthened since the mid-1980s (Edwards etal. 2006).The number <strong>of</strong> Atlantic salmon returning tospawn in Northeastern Europe has stronglydeclined; this appears to be linked to climaticvariability (Beaugrand and Reid 2003). Mostother exploited fish species in the region,including deepwater species, have alsoundergone large reductions in stock size, animpact that is believed to be due, in largemeasure, to overfishing, but which may includean environmental component.Deeper water organisms are less likely to beimpacted by climate change other than throughchanges to their food by settling <strong>of</strong> particulatematerial through the water column. Reefs <strong>of</strong>cold water corals are currently threatened by29

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal Drafthuman activities such as fishing, and by oceanacidification.Projections <strong>of</strong> climate changeThere is strong evidence that changes seen inthe North Atlantic are at a scale not previouslyrecorded. The ocean is freshening both at thesurface and at depth (Curry et al. 2003;González-Pola et al. 2005) and has undergonea period <strong>of</strong> rapid warming (Levitus 2000).Associated changes have taken place in thecirculation and in the formation <strong>of</strong> deep water,both in the Nordic Seas and in the LabradorSea.Taken together, these conditions are likely toimpact on the Thermohaline Circulation (seeSection 1.3) which could lead to a cooling <strong>of</strong>Europe’s climate. Modelling studies to date,however, suggest that this is unlikely to happenin the next 100 years and that the current trend<strong>of</strong> warming is likely to continue with increases<strong>of</strong> 2°C and more over this time frame. <strong>Change</strong>s<strong>of</strong> this scale (+ 2°C) over such a period arenonetheless likely to have significant effects onthe circulation and ecosystems <strong>of</strong> the NortheastAtlantic.Perhaps the greatest impact <strong>of</strong> climate changewithin the Atlantic will be on the biologicalpump (see Section 1.3).Current research and monitoringprogrammes and projects in the NortheastAtlantic• The International Council for theExploration <strong>of</strong> the Sea (ICES) is theintergovernmental organisation thatcoordinates and promotes marine researchin the North Atlantic and the adjacent seassuch as the Baltic Sea and North Sea.ICES comprises 19 member countries.The scientific advice prepared by theAdvisory Committee on FisheriesManagement (ACFM) <strong>of</strong> ICES is examinedby the Scientific, Technical and EconomicCommittee for Fisheries, who consults withindustry and other parties beforeformulating proposals for quotas, fordiscussion at the annual Decembermeetings <strong>of</strong> the Council <strong>of</strong> FisheriesMinisters and for advice to the CommonFisheries Policy (CFP)• ICCAT (International Commission for theConservation <strong>of</strong> Atlantic Tuna), NASCO(North Atlantic Salmon ConservationOrganisation) and NEAFC (North EastAtlantic Fisheries Commission) alsoprovides input to the CFP;• As an open ocean region monitoring islargely restricted to periodic cruises byresearch vessels. An exception is themonthly sampling by the 75 year-oldContinuous Plankton Recorder (CPR,coordinated by SAHFOS) survey alongstandard tracks <strong>of</strong> ships <strong>of</strong> opportunity;• A number <strong>of</strong> strategic hydrographicalsections are operated, e.g. across theFaeroe Shetland Channel and the RockallTrough (Ellett Line) and an ocean widesection is being monitored just to the southalong 26°N (Bryden et al. 2005);• A wide range <strong>of</strong> studies have been carriedout at the Station Papa site in thePorcupine Sea Bight, formerly at OceanWeather Ship stations India and Juliet;• Long-term current meter studies are beingundertaken in the Denmark Strait and inthe Faeroe-Shetland Channel to measureoverflow waters.• Surveys <strong>of</strong> seabirds and cetaceans at seafrom ships and aircraft have been obtainedsince 1979 as part <strong>of</strong> the EuropeanSeabird at Sea (ESAS) programme, andare managed by the UK Joint NatureConservation Council (JNCC);30

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal Draft4.6 NORTH SEADescription <strong>of</strong> the areaThe topography <strong>of</strong> the North Sea can broadlybe described as a gradual slope from shallow(

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal DraftThe response to these events was at timesregionally different. For example, a delay in thetiming <strong>of</strong> the spring phytoplankton bloomoccurred in the Wadden Sea after the mid-1980s, while over much <strong>of</strong> the open North Seathe bloom occurred earlier. At the same timethe first appearance <strong>of</strong> juvenile shrimp in theWadden Sea advanced, as did the firstappearance <strong>of</strong> fish larvae in the German Bight.Patterns <strong>of</strong> change in sea-surface temperaturethat distinguish these two periods are stronglycorrelated with two indices <strong>of</strong> climaticvariability: The Northern HemisphereTemperature (NHT) and the North AtlanticOscillation (NAO). Ecological responses tothese signals in the North Sea are wide rangingand encompass changes in timing <strong>of</strong>reproduction, the length <strong>of</strong> the growing season<strong>of</strong> phytoplankton, the timing <strong>of</strong> the springmigration <strong>of</strong> birds, as well as the populationdynamics, abundance, competition andpredator-prey relationships, and thegeographical distribution and abundance <strong>of</strong>populations <strong>of</strong> many fish species (e.g.Beaugrand and Reid 2003; Brander et al. 2003;Drinkwater et al. 2003; Perry et al. 2005). Whilethese indices only partly explain observedclimatic variability, they strongly impact on theNorth Sea and, at least in the case <strong>of</strong> the NHT,are linked to global warming and the increasein atmospheric level <strong>of</strong> greenhouse gases(IPCC 2001).In terms <strong>of</strong> phenology, seasonal changes inresponse to warming in the timing <strong>of</strong> biologicalevents for different planktonic functional groupsare leading to a mismatch in the timingbetween phytoplankton and zooplankton,between zooplankton and fish, between bivalvelarvae and shrimp, and between fish andseabirds (e.g. Beaugrand and Reid 2003;Philippart et al. 2003; Edwards and Richardson2004; Wiltshire and Manley 2004). In the past40 years, the warming <strong>of</strong> the North Sea hasaffected cod recruitment via changes at thebase <strong>of</strong> the food web (Beaugrand et al. 2003).“Many warm-water rocky shore snails andbarnacles formerly absent or just extendinginto the North Sea have spread south along theNorth Sea coast <strong>of</strong> the UK from the tip <strong>of</strong>Scotland.”Mieszkowska et al. (2005)Hawkins and Burrows (personal observations)Northerly range extensions or changes in thegeographical distribution <strong>of</strong> plankton and fishpopulations are associated with the abovechanges and have been related to regionalclimate warming (Beaugrand et al. 2003;Brander et al. 2003; Perry et al. 2005). Warmerwater species <strong>of</strong> plankton, for example, haveextended their range northward by 1000 km inonly 40 years and colder species haveretreated out <strong>of</strong> the North Sea (Beaugrand etal. 2003). Sardines and anchovies have movednorthward in the North Sea and red mullet andbass have extended their ranges north towestern Norway (e.g. Brander et al. 2003).Relationship between food supply (indexed as plankton change, Beaugrand et al. 2003) and totalbiomass <strong>of</strong> cod for the North Sea for the period 1958-1999. Note that changes in food supply had aneffect on cod biomass with one- to two-year lags (Beaugrand, unpublished).Projections <strong>of</strong> climate change32

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal DraftRegional climate change scenarios predict anincrease in air temperature <strong>of</strong> 2°C to 3.5°C bythe 2080s, with high summer temperaturesbecoming more frequent and very cold wintersbecoming increasingly rare (e.g. Hulme et al.2002; van den Hurk et al. 2006). Watertemperatures will also increase, but not asrapidly as temperature over land. Sea level riseis expected to rise with 18 to 59 cm at 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999 (IPCC 2007).However, these projections do not includepossible future rapid dynamical changes in iceflow. For example, if this contribution were togrow linearly with temperature change, thismay add an additional 10 to 20 cm to the upperranges <strong>of</strong> sea level rise (IPCC 2007).Observed correlations strongly suggest that theNorth Sea ecosystem is vulnerable to variationin climatic conditions in general, and toanomalies in temperature and hydrodynamicsin particular. Several processes within theNorth Sea food web appear to rely ontemperature as a trigger, and further increasesin temperature may disrupt the connectednessbetween species potentially leading to changesin community structures and possibly localextinctions. For many marine species, includingcommercially caught fish, the number <strong>of</strong>recruits mainly determines the year-to-yearvariation in the size <strong>of</strong> the adult stocks. If theannual sea-surface temperature increasesfurther, efforts to maintain previous fisheryyields from reduced stocks (due to northwardmovement and lowered recruitment levels)have the potential to significantly impactfisheries and have strong effects on the localecosystem.Because <strong>of</strong> the strong tidal regime and theeffects <strong>of</strong> storm surges many <strong>of</strong> the coastalregions <strong>of</strong> the North Sea, especially in thesouth, are particularly susceptible to rising sealevels and to an increase in the frequency andseverity <strong>of</strong> storms. If existing natural and manmadesea defences are breached, floodingcould be extensive since parts <strong>of</strong> the southernUK and the Netherlands are slowly sinking dueto gradual settling. Greater defence by artificialcoastal defences in order to minimise the risk<strong>of</strong> future flooding <strong>of</strong> these coastlines will lead toloss <strong>of</strong> coastal habitats (IPCC 1990), and maybecome far more difficult in the future,threatening major coastal cities such asLondon and Amsterdam.Current research and monitoringprogrammes and projects in the North Sea• Most countries around the North Seaundertake meteorological andhydrodynamic monitoring for nationalpurposes, which in a number <strong>of</strong> cases islinked to the Global Ocean ObservingSystem (GOOS) and EuroGOOS;• The German Federal Maritime andHydrographic Agency produces weeklymaps <strong>of</strong> sea-surface temperature;• The International Council for theExploration <strong>of</strong> the Sea (ICES) maintains abank <strong>of</strong> oceanographic data, dating backto the early 1900s and coordinates a suite<strong>of</strong> annual and triennial fish surveys;• North Sea plankton has been monitored bythe Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR)survey now operated by the Sir AlisterHardy Foundation for Ocean Science(SAHFOS), since 1931;• Several marine institutes (e.g. AlfredWegener Institute (AWI), Centre forEnvironment, Fisheries and AquacultureScience (CEFAS), Fisheries ResearchServices (FRS), Royal NetherlandsInstitute for Sea Research (NIOZ),Universities <strong>of</strong> Lille and Newcastle)undertake local long-term (> 30 yrs) fieldobservations on environmental parametersand marine organisms,. The UKobservations are coordinated via theMarine Environmental <strong>Change</strong> (MECN)network;• Some European initiative networkmonitoring and research efforts on effects<strong>of</strong> climate change on the North Sea,.These network include Implementation andNetworking <strong>of</strong> large-scale long-termMarine Biodiversity research in Europe(BIOMARE), Marine Genomics Europe(MGE), and Marine Biodiversity andEcosystem Functioning (MarBEF).MarBEF has developed a Europeandatabase <strong>of</strong> biogeographic information onocean environmental parameters andmarine organisms (EurOBIS) and hoststhe European Register <strong>of</strong> Marine Species(ERMS).33

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal Draft4.7 BALTIC SEADescription <strong>of</strong> the areaThe Baltic Sea is a semi-enclosed basin with atotal area <strong>of</strong> 415,000 km 2 that includes itsnarrow entrance, the Kattegat. The catchmentarea is four times larger than the sea itself andis populated by approximately 85 millioninhabitants. Because <strong>of</strong> its location with respectto the expansions and contractions <strong>of</strong> theScandinavian ice sheet, the Baltic Sea hasnever been in a steady state since itsformation. Postglacial processes have shapedthe Baltic’s coastline, topography, basicchemistry and sedimentary environment onmillennium scales.<strong>Climate</strong> variability acts on centennial anddecadal scales and, particularly in the last 150years, overlaps with human activity in thedrainage basin and the coastal zone have ledto considerable change in the biogeochemistry<strong>of</strong> the Baltic Sea basin. The Baltic Sea ischaracterised by a closed circulation in thecentral basin, low salinities, and by stronghorizontal gradients both in salinity and inecosystem variables resulting in lowbiodiversity.The Baltic Sea (Credit: SAHFOS and Marine Institute)34

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal DraftThe inter-annual variability <strong>of</strong> the Baltic Sea ismodulated by the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) and by the inflow <strong>of</strong> Atlantic water fromthe North Sea into this area, referred to asmajor Baltic inflows. These inflows representthe only mechanism by which the Baltic deepwater is displaced and renewed to a significantdegree relatively high salinity (17-25 ppm) andoxygenated water. In the longer lastingstagnation periods between inflow events, all <strong>of</strong>the oxygen in the deep waters is used up,resulting in anoxic conditions.Major Baltic inflows (blue bars) between 1880 and 2005 and their seasonal distribution (upper right),shown in terms <strong>of</strong> their relative intensity after Matthäus and Frank (1992) and the total amount <strong>of</strong> riverrun<strong>of</strong>f (red) after Bergström and Carlsson (1994). The time series have been supplemented andupdated by Matthäus (2006).Signals <strong>of</strong> climate changesAnalysis <strong>of</strong> a cumulative Baltic winter indexindicates that during the last 350 years, sixregime shifts have occurred (Hagen and Feistel2005). The Baltic Sea ecosystem appeared tobe strongly influenced by the interplay <strong>of</strong> nonperiodicshifts from lake to sea and back duringthe late quaternary period (Dippner et al. 2006).This in turn resulted in changes betweenmarine and limnic (freshwater) speciescomposition, shifts from cold water to warmwater species and back, changes betweenoxygen-rich and oxygen-poor conditions in thedeep basins, and the occasional intrusion <strong>of</strong>non-indigenous species.Projections <strong>of</strong> climate change<strong>Climate</strong> change simulations with differentregional climate models, hydrological modelsand circulation models for a number <strong>of</strong>greenhouse gas emission scenarios givevariable results for changes in Baltic climatevariables. Nonetheless, some general trendsare projected (Graham et al. 2006). Allscenarios and all climate models predicttemperature increases during all seasons witha mean warming <strong>of</strong> 3ºC to 5ºC in theatmosphere and 2ºC to 4°C in the sea-surfacetemperature in the Baltic by the end <strong>of</strong> the 21 stcentury. One consequence is a decrease insea-ice extent by 50% to 80% over the sameperiod. Projected changes in precipitation arevariable. Winters will probably be wetter and insouthern parts <strong>of</strong> the region summers arepredicted to be drier under many climatescenarios. As a consequence, river run<strong>of</strong>fduring winter is expected to increase by asmuch as 50%, with the opposite patternoccurring in summer.Each <strong>of</strong> the predicted changes has a differentconsequence for the ecosystem. Uncertainty iscreated by the fact that while much is knowabout the consequences <strong>of</strong> change in salinityor temperature, little is known about theconsequences <strong>of</strong> their interactions or <strong>of</strong>combined changes. An increase in temperatureprevents late winter convection, which isessential for nutrient supply in the upper layer.Higher temperatures during winter may result inincreased metabolic rates for bacteria and ashift in species composition from cold to warmwater species, whereas higher temperature insummer may enhance blooms <strong>of</strong> cyanobacteriablooms (that is bacteria that obtain their energyvia photosynthesis). An increase inprecipitation will result in higher river run<strong>of</strong>f,reduced salinity, higher nutrient input by riversand enhanced eutrophication in near coastalareas with higher phytoplankton and benthicbiomass (Dippner and Ikauniece 2001).35

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal DraftProjections <strong>of</strong> climate change do not indicate arobust signal with respect to windiness.Nevertheless, possible increasing windinessduring late winter would lead to strongervertical mixing with the consequence thatnutrients would be mixed into the euphoticzone and would be directly available forprimary production. This process would providehigher than normal phosphate concentrationsin early spring which would be used bycyanobacteria later in summer (Janssen et al.2004). An increase in windiness might alsocause remobilisation <strong>of</strong> contaminants frombottom sediment. Lower salinities would causeosmotic stress for phyto- and zooplankton andmay result in a shift in species compositionfrom marine to limnic species. Such a shiftwould influence the food quality and thereforethe growth rate and fat content <strong>of</strong> fish.Decreasing salinity in combination with oxygenpoorand oxygen-depleted conditions due tocyanobacteria blooms would result in benthicdeserts in the deep basins and poor survivalconditions for cod eggs. In contrast, highertemperatures would lead to an increase in thecarrying capacity for sprat stocks and likelyalter food web structure (Möllmann et al. 2005).Reducing salinities would result in distributionalchanges and favour the invasion <strong>of</strong> nonindigenousspecies.Current research and monitoringprogrammes and projects• National Baltic Sea monitoringprogrammes and projects <strong>of</strong> physical,chemical or biological properties are coordinatedby HELCOM (www.helcom.fi);• Data collection on fish and fisheries is coordinatedby ICES;• In the framework <strong>of</strong> the BONUS ERA-NETproject (networking <strong>of</strong> funding agencies –funded by the European Union SixthFramework Programme), the BONUS-169Baltic Sea Science Plan has beendeveloped to create prudent, long-term,holistic multidisciplinary solutions involvingsustainable use <strong>of</strong> the sea by i)understanding and quantifying the role <strong>of</strong>climate change and variability and itsimplications for the dynamics <strong>of</strong> theregion’s ecosystem, ii) understanding thephysical, chemical and biologicalfunctioning <strong>of</strong> marine ecosystem andunderstanding and quantifying humanimpacts, and iii) developing the scientificbasis for sustainable use and protection <strong>of</strong>the marine environment and its associatedbiodiversity.36

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal Draft4.8 CELTIC-BISCAY SHELFDescription <strong>of</strong> the areaThe region considered as the Celtic-BiscayShelf includes the coastal and shelf seas <strong>of</strong> thenorthern Bay <strong>of</strong> Biscay, the Celtic Sea, EnglishChannel and the Irish Sea, plus the coastalseas to the west <strong>of</strong> Scotland and Ireland. Thisregion has a complex topography, with patterns<strong>of</strong> water movement primarily from the southand west penetrating into the English Channeland the Irish Sea. Water also leaves the regionto enter the North Sea from the south and westvia the English Channel and from the north andwest around Scotland. The deeper water <strong>of</strong> theBay <strong>of</strong> Biscay is best considered as part <strong>of</strong> thewider North East Atlantic.The water masses in these coast and shelfregions are primarily <strong>of</strong> North Atlantic origin butwith some influence from Mediterranean waterin the Bay <strong>of</strong> Biscay. In NAO negative years(Navidad years), warm water enters the Bay <strong>of</strong>Biscay and can propagate northwards west <strong>of</strong>Ireland (Pingree and Le Cann 1989; Pingree2002).The Celtic Sea and western English Channelstratifies strongly leading to pronouncedsurface fronts. Much <strong>of</strong> the Irish Sea is tidallymixed except for a stratified patch west <strong>of</strong> theIsle <strong>of</strong> Man bound to the north and south byfronts. The English Channel becomes lessstratified from west to east; the eastern basin istidally mixed (Pingree and Griffiths 1978).The Celtic-Biscay Sea region including theEnglish Channel and Irish Sea is known to sitastride a biogeographic boundary zone (Forbes1958). Many boreal and cold temperaturespecies reach their southern limits in this area(e.g. kelp, herring, cod), while warm-temperatelusitanean species exist at their northern limit(e.g. sardines, breams, red mullet, Cystoceira).Thus, this region is particularly sensitive toclimate change in both <strong>of</strong>fshore and inshorewaters.The Celtic-Biscay shelf (Credit: SAHFOS and Marine Institute)37

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal DraftSignals <strong>of</strong> climate changeObservations <strong>of</strong> sea-surface temperatureshave been made in the Celtic-Biscay regionsince the middle <strong>of</strong> the 19th century. Seasurfacetemperatures show that, following awarm period in the 1880s, temperatures cooleduntil the early 20th century before increasingfrom around 1920, and remained warm until the1960s. A cooler period followed the extremelycold winter <strong>of</strong> 1962/1963 and continued wellinto the 1980s. Since then, acceleratedwarming has been apparent (see Southward etal. 2005 for further details). Similar changeshave been seen in the Bay <strong>of</strong> Biscay (Planqueet al. 2003; Blanchard and Vandermeirsch2005), the Irish Sea (Evans et al. 2003) and theeastern English Channel (Woehrling et al.2005).The CPR survey clearly shows that in the1960s warm temperate zooplankton speciesjust reached the region. Since the late 1980sthese species have spread northwardsencompassing much <strong>of</strong> the west coast <strong>of</strong>France, Britain and Ireland (Beaugrand et al.2002). A longer term picture <strong>of</strong> changes in thisregion can be derived from the time-seriescollected by the CPR. Rapid warming occurringfrom the late 1980s onwards can be put intothe context <strong>of</strong> past changes including warmingup to around 1960.Long-term changes in northern (Semibalanus balanoides) and southern (Chthamalus spp) barnaclesaveraged for several shores at different submersion levels (HWN: High Water Neap; MTL: Mean TidalLow; LWN: Low Water Neap) on the South coast <strong>of</strong> Devon and Cornwall (Southward 1991; Southwardet al. 1995; Southward and Hawkins, unpublished)During the warming in the 1930s the herringfishery in the English Channel collapsed,associated with much change in the rest <strong>of</strong> theecosystem, indicating that overfishing wasprobably not the main underlying cause <strong>of</strong> thedecline <strong>of</strong> the herring population. Coldtemperate herring were replaced by warmerwater pilchards (sardines). These ecosystemwidechanges were subsequently ascribed toclimate change (Southward 1980). Historicalresearch has since shown that such switches inspecies populations were commonplace andhave occurred at least since the 13th centuryduring alternating cold or warm periods(Southward et al. 1988).In the 1960s there was a switch back to colderconditions and the planktonic communitiesreturned to their previous colder watercharacteristics. Populations <strong>of</strong> Pilchardsdeclined again. Herring populations did notrecover – perhaps because at that time in the1970s stocks were at historically low levels inthe eastern English Channel and North Seaand recolonisation was not possible (Hawkinset al. 2003). Sardines are now abundant againand the warmer water chaetognath Sagittasetosa with other southern speciespredominates in the plankton.In addition to changes in the plankton and inpelagic and demersal fish assemblages,parallel changes were described on rockyshores, using barnacles as a sensitive indicator<strong>of</strong> wider changes in marine life (Southward etal. 1995, 2005). These showed switchesbetween warm water barnacles in the 1950s togreater dominance by the cold water barnacleSemibalanus balanoides in the 1960s and1970s. On rocky shores warm water barnaclesnow exceed the levels found in the 1950s andsouthern species <strong>of</strong> gastropods and limpetshave increased in abundance and recoveredground lost during the cold winter <strong>of</strong>38

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal Draft1962/1963. In some cases range extensionshave occurred beyond the limits <strong>of</strong> the 1950s.This is particularly the case in the easternEnglish Channel and on the north west <strong>of</strong>Scotland where several species havepenetrated far beyond their previous limits(Mieszkowska et al. 2005).southwest Britain and Ireland. The possibilitystill remains <strong>of</strong> cooling at some stage, shouldthermohaline circulation be slowed down,leading to a weakened Gulf Stream. Shouldthis occur, then re-adjustment to northernassemblages is likely, as occurred after the lastextremely cold winter <strong>of</strong> 1962-1963 (Genner etal. 2004; Sims et al. unpublished).Projections <strong>of</strong> climate changeRapid responses are likely with acceleratingclimate change in this biogeographic boundaryregion. Previous changes involving majorfluctuations in dominant species <strong>of</strong> pelagic anddemersal fish, zooplankton and benthos werein response to changes <strong>of</strong> less than 1°C inaverage annual temperatures (Southward1980). Predicted changes are in the order <strong>of</strong>1.5°C to 5°C over the next 100 years.“By extrapolation <strong>of</strong> trends from catches <strong>of</strong>southern fish <strong>of</strong>f Plymouth over the last 80years it is possible to forecast that by 2025,even under low emission scenarios, thefish assemblage <strong>of</strong>f Plymouth will resemblethat currently found far to the south in theIberian Peninsula.”Genner et al. (2004)Sims et al. (unpublished)Forecast models <strong>of</strong> intertidal assemblagessuggest that northern species (such as thebarnacle Semibalanus balanoides) will becomeextinct in much <strong>of</strong> the southwest <strong>of</strong> Englandand probably also in northwest France in thenext 20 to 30 years. Some species, such as thekelp Alaria esculenta, were badly impacted bythe last warm period <strong>of</strong> the 1950s and seem tohave retracted further in recent years(Mieszkowska et al. 2005).Many commercial fishery species now foundmore commonly further north in the EnglishChannel command high market prices inFrance, Spain and Portugal. With goodtransport links from the UK there are now highvaluemarkets for species such as cuttlefish(Sepia), spider crabs (Maja) and various breamand red mullet, encouraging exports fromCurrent research and monitoring programsand projects in the Celtic-Biscay Shelf• Considerable effort has been made via theMarCLIMproject(www.mab.ac.uk/marclim) to resurveyexisting baseline studies <strong>of</strong> rocky shores inBritain and Ireland• Many <strong>of</strong> the long-term time series recordscollected by the Marine BiologicalAssociation at Plymouth have beenreactivated in recent years, e.g.observations <strong>of</strong> hydrography and planktonat station E1, benthos and fish at stationL4, and broadscale surveys <strong>of</strong> the EnglishChannel benthos (see Southward et al.2005 for details). The Plymouth MarineLaboratory has collected information onzooplankton and much <strong>of</strong> the pelagicecosystem at station L4 since 1988.• The SAHFOS-CPR surveys provide goodcoverage <strong>of</strong> the pelagic species <strong>of</strong> theEnglish Channel and the Bay <strong>of</strong> Biscay.The resumption <strong>of</strong> the Plymouth - Rosc<strong>of</strong>fand the Portsmouth – Bilbao CPR tows areparticularly valuable and together theseobservations will form the core <strong>of</strong> theproposed western English Channelobservatory based in Plymouth. Similarapproaches are underway via theobservatory at Rosc<strong>of</strong>f;• There are also long-term time seriesrecords for the benthos <strong>of</strong> the easternChannel collected by the WimereauxLaboratory in Flanders.39

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal Draft4.9 IBERIAN UPWELLING MARGINDescription <strong>of</strong> the areaThe Iberian coastal area includes thecontinental shelf region and the oceanic part <strong>of</strong>the Eastern Atlantic Ocean, lying between 35ºNto 44ºN. The deep ocean floor is around 4000m deep. The west and north Iberian Peninsulapresent a narrow shelf when compared with theNorth Bay <strong>of</strong> Biscay and Celtic Sea. This shelfis crossed by several submarine canyons in theBay <strong>of</strong> Biscay and on the Portuguese coast;several rivers enter along the Galician coast.The east-west orientation <strong>of</strong> the coast in thenorthern part breaks the normal north-southorientation <strong>of</strong> the European Atlantic coast.The Iberian coastal area has a weak circulationpattern, with seasonal variability (Valdés andLavín 2002). The main oceanographic featuresare: the Iberian Poleward Current, coastalupwelling (more intense and extended in thewest Iberian coast) and the seasonalstratification in oceanic waters. The exchange<strong>of</strong> waters between the Atlantic and theMediterranean is also relevant. As a result <strong>of</strong>the Iberian Poleward Current, severalanticyclonic eddies are shed into oceanicwaters, <strong>of</strong>f the northeast corner <strong>of</strong> the IberianPeninsula, and in the Central Bay <strong>of</strong> Biscay.As a result <strong>of</strong> the summer upwelling, twoparallel biogeographical gradients can bedistinguished in Atlantic waters <strong>of</strong> the IberianPeninsula (that is North-South in the west andWest-East in the north). Many northern speciesare much more common in the northwestIberian Peninsula and some southern speciesare recorded as absent or less abundant beforereappearing in the inner Bay <strong>of</strong> Biscay andsouth Portugal (Fischer-Piette 1963; Ardré1970; Anadón and Niell 1980). A similarbiogeographical anomaly appears <strong>of</strong>f NorthAfrica, associated with upwelling (Lüning1990).The Iberian upwelling margin (Credit: SAHFOS and Marine Institute)40

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal DraftSignals <strong>of</strong> climate change<strong>Change</strong>s in the sea-surface temperatures(SST) derived from the 1860-2000Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(COADS) for the Bay <strong>of</strong> Biscay (Planque et al.2003) show two cold temperature periods,around 1910 and 1970, and warm temperateperiods in 1870 and 1960. Rapid warming insurface temperatures (0.055 ºC y -1 over 30years) has occurred in the last few decades(Koutsikopoulos et al. 1998; Llope et al. 2006)in all the oceanic areas <strong>of</strong> the Bay. Due to highvariability, the increase was not significant incoastal areas. In very near coast locationsalong northern Spain, long-term trend inchanges in SST could be negative (Borja et al.2002). A decreasing salinity trend in thesurface and sub-surface waters towards thesouthern Bay <strong>of</strong> Biscay was observed in thepast fifteen years (González-Pola et al. 2005).An averaged sea level rise <strong>of</strong> 2.12 mm y -1 to2.91 mm y -1 in the last 50 years was detectedin the northwest Iberian Peninsula (Marcos etal. 2005), with a 6.5 mm y -1 rise between 1991and 2001. A decreasing trend in the upwellingindex and the seasonality <strong>of</strong> upwelling <strong>of</strong>fnorthern Spain has also been detected (Llopeet al. 2006).Biological responses to climate change havebeen detected for various organisms andecosystems. Both primary productivity andspecies composition <strong>of</strong> the phytoplankton areaffected by long-term changes in chemicallydifferent water masses. A rapid increase (1993-1994) in abundance <strong>of</strong> the rare warmtemperate copepod Temora stylifera occured inBay <strong>of</strong> Biscay, which correlated with thedecreasing abundance <strong>of</strong> the coastal Temoralongicornis.Several other organisms <strong>of</strong> subtropical originhave been detected during recent years(Guerra et al. 2002). There have been changesin species abundance and diversity <strong>of</strong> intertidalcommunities (Sánchez et al. 2005), andnorthward displacement <strong>of</strong> southern originspecies (i.e. Patella rustica, Lima et al. 2006).Decreases <strong>of</strong> biomass <strong>of</strong> some seaweeds wereobserved over the past fifteen years(Fernández, unpublished).There have been changes in exploited fishpopulations such as pilchard sardine, anchovy,mackerel and horse mackerel, but it is quitedifficult to differentiate between impact <strong>of</strong>climate and fishing effects. Many changes inmigratory routes and spawning areas, however,are associated with fluctuations in the NAOindex, indicating a climate effect (Borja et al.2002).Intensity (Mean and S.E.) and number <strong>of</strong> days with upwelling per year averaged from April-Septembervalues. The straight line is the linear fit for intensity (Llope et al. 2006) (Copyright 2006 AmericanGeophysical Union - Reproduced by permission <strong>of</strong> American Geophysical Union)..41

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal DraftProjections <strong>of</strong> climate changeThe Iberian coast supports intense fisheriesand aquaculture, involving traditional musselrafts and modern intensive fish and molluscfarming. Several impacts related with climatechange could have socioeconomic impacts.The observed increase in harmful algal bloomscould affect these commercial activities. Thechanges in primary productivity related withupwelling intensity and seasonality affectinggrowth will impact upon the quality <strong>of</strong> themussels (Blanton et al. 1987).“The increase in parasites <strong>of</strong> subtropicalorigin (such as Perkinsus) endangers theextensive mollusc farming along theSpanish coasts.”Labarta (personal observation)The predicted changes in SST as well theobserved and predicted changes in circulationand stratification could influence the retentiondispersionmechanism <strong>of</strong> larval stages <strong>of</strong> fishand shellfish with unknown consequences forspecies recruitment. <strong>Change</strong>s in the distribution<strong>of</strong> seaweed and invertebrate fauna alongnorthwest Iberian and Atlantic French coastswill be evident in the first half <strong>of</strong> the 21 stcentury, based upon the actual temperaturelimits <strong>of</strong> their distribution and predictions <strong>of</strong>global circulation models on future SST (Alcock2003). Beaches, infrastructures and urbanfacilities could be seriously impacted by the sealevel rise (Cendrero et al. 2005).Current research and monitoringprogrammes and projects• The main programme devoted to theoceanographic research in the globalchange context in Spain is a part <strong>of</strong> theNational Programme on EnvironmentalScience and Technology. The planidentifies, as a special task, the functionalrole <strong>of</strong> the oceans global change and theimpacts <strong>of</strong> global change on the regionaland local seas in which Spain has aninterest. The programme also financedcooperative research in the internationalarena;• The Spanish Institute <strong>of</strong> Oceanography(IEO) RADIALES project to monitorsphysical, chemical and biologicalconditions in coastal waters <strong>of</strong> Spain. Thisproject was initiated in 1991 and coversfive localities sampled monthly;• The IEO has supported the deployment <strong>of</strong>three tide gauges for more than 50 years(www.ieo.es/centrodatos);• Moored buoys that take continuousphysical data including currents and waveheight are maintained by Puertos delEstado (State Ports);• The HIPOCAS project (Funded by theEuropean Union’s Fifth FrameworkProgramme - FP5) carried outretrospective analysis <strong>of</strong> climatic andoceanographic parameters <strong>of</strong> the Iberiancoast. Some Spanish regional institutionshave recently implemented automatic nearcoast observation platform (e.g. AZTI, inthe Basque Country);• Some Portuguese universities carry outresearch on the impacts <strong>of</strong> climate changeon intertidal species (e.g. Porto University,see Lima et al. 2006), includingcompetition between species at theirsouthern limits with warmer water species(Boaventura et al. 2002);• Oceanographic and fisheries monitoringand research is also conduct by IPIMAR innorthern Portugal.42

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal Draft4.10 MEDITERRANEAN SEADescription <strong>of</strong> the areaThe Mediterranean basin is ca. 3,680 km longwith an average width <strong>of</strong> 700 km and is dividedinto the Western and Eastern Mediterranean,separated by the straits <strong>of</strong> Sicily, and the CentralMediterranean. The Western Mediterranean(mean depth, ca. 1,600 m) consists <strong>of</strong> two deepbasins: the Algero Provençal basin and theTyrrhenian Sea. The Central Mediterraneanincludes the Adriatic and Ionian seas, while theEastern Mediterranean includes the Aegean Seaand the Levantine basin.The principal traits <strong>of</strong> this semi-enclosedminiature ocean are:• Limited freshwater input (theMediterranean basin is characterised by afreshwater deficit <strong>of</strong> 0.9 m y -1 asevaporation exceeds precipitation andrun<strong>of</strong>f). The major water exchanges arethrough the Straits <strong>of</strong> Gibraltar with surfaceinflow <strong>of</strong> Atlantic (top 300 m), and deepoutflow <strong>of</strong> the deep, high-salinity,Mediterranean waters (Béthoux et al.2002);• Small amplitude tides (microtidal regime);• High oxygen concentrations;• High deep-sea temperatures (> 12.8°C);• Oligotrophic conditions, with low nutrientconcentrations that typically decreaseeastward.As a result <strong>of</strong> these characteristics, theWestern and Eastern Mediterranean arecharacterised by different primary productivity.In the Western Mediterranean, primaryproduction is about 350-450 mgC m -2 d -1 ,whereas in the Eastern Mediterranean primaryproduction is much lower (about 150 mgC m -2d -1 ; Turley et al. 2000). The low productivity inthe Eastern Mediterranean region, togetherwith the strong summer stratification <strong>of</strong> thewater column and the tight microbial loopcontrol, result in exceptionally low exports <strong>of</strong>primary organic matter to the seabed (Turley etal. 2000).The Mediterranean Sea (Credit: SAHFOS and Marine Institute)Although it occupies only 0.82% <strong>of</strong> the world’socean surface and 0.32% <strong>of</strong> its volume, theMediterranean is a hot spot for biodiversity.Species richness (ca. 8500 species <strong>of</strong>metazoa) accounts for 7.5% <strong>of</strong> all describedmarine species (range 4%-18% according tothe group considered): 67% <strong>of</strong> Mediterraneanspecies are found in the WesternMediterranean, 38% in the Adriatic Sea, 35% inthe Central Mediterranean, 44% in the AegeanSea and 28% in the Levantine Sea.This trend in species richness indicates a westeastimpoverishment <strong>of</strong> species, reflectingclimatic and trophic gradients. Mediterraneanmarine assemblages are different from theirAtlantic counterparts, and Mediterraneanorganisms are typically characterised bysmaller individual sizes.The Mediterranean Sea is biologically diverseas it is a warm sea at temperate latitudes thushosting both temperate and subtropicalspecies, and has been further diversified by itscomplex geological history. In the last fivemillion years, the Mediterranean has formedten distinct biogeographic regions (Bianchi andMorri 2000). According to Bianchi (1997), thepresent marine biota <strong>of</strong> the Mediterranean iscomposed <strong>of</strong> species characterised asoriginating from:• A temperate Atlantic-Mediterraneanbackground;43

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal Draft• Cosmopolitan/panoceanic species;• Endemic elements, comprising bothpaleoendemic and neoendemic species;• Subtropical Atlantic species (interglacialremnants);• Boreal Atlantic species (ice-age remnants);• Red Sea migrants (especially into theLevant Sea);• Eastern Atlantic migrants (especially intothe Alboran Sea).Signals <strong>of</strong> climate changeWestern Mediterranean“In the western Mediterranean, climatechanges during the 1980s altered planktonassemblages and food webs with highpositive temperature anomalies favouringjellyfish outbreaks, which resulted in astrong decrease in the copepodabundance.”Molinero et al. (2005)In the Western Mediterranean, climate changeinfluences the boundaries <strong>of</strong> biogeographicregions, with some warm water speciesextending their ranges and colonising newregions where they were previously absent.The northward migration <strong>of</strong> species with awarmer affinity has been demonstrated inseveral regions (Bianchi and Morri 1994; Morriand Bianchi 2001). The Ligurian Sea, one <strong>of</strong>the coldest areas in the Mediterranean Sea,has a lower number <strong>of</strong> subtropical species anda higher abundance <strong>of</strong> species characteristic <strong>of</strong>cold-temperate waters. The warming <strong>of</strong>Ligurian Sea waters (Béthoux et al. 1990;Astraldi et al. 1995) has favoured thepenetration <strong>of</strong> warm-water species, includingfor example the ornate wrasse Thalassomapavo, which from 1985 onward establishedlarge and stable populations (Bianchi and Morri1994).However, the increase in numbers <strong>of</strong> tropicalAtlantic species found in the northernMediterranean may result from a combination<strong>of</strong> anthropogenic and climate factors. Recentstudies have identified a correlation betweenthe NAO and the climate variability <strong>of</strong> theNorthwestern Mediterranean (Molinero et al.2005).A large mass-mortality event was observed in1999 (Cerrano et al. 2000; Perez et al. 2000),when a positive thermal anomaly duringsummer combined with an increase in thewarm mixed layer down to a depth <strong>of</strong> 40 m(Romano et al. 2000) resulted in an extensivemortality <strong>of</strong> 28 invertebrate species (Perez etal. 2000). The area impacted by this climateanomaly extended from the French to theItalian coast and, to a lesser extent, impactedthe island <strong>of</strong> Corsica. Among benthicorganisms, the most severely affected weresponges and gorgonians, such as Paramuriceaclavata, Eunicella singularis, Lophogorgiaceratophyta, and Eunicella cavolini (Cerrano etal. 2000; Perez et al. 2000; Romano et al.2000; Garrabou et al. 2001). It is evident thattemperature anomalies, even <strong>of</strong> short duration,can dramatically change Mediterranean faunaldiversity. Once a species disappears, otherspecies, pre-adapted to the new conditions,can replace them, thus hampering theecosystem resilience to pre-impact conditions.High thermal anomalies can also impact thefauna inhabiting marine caves, replacingendemic species by warm water species(Chevaldonne and Lejeusne 2003).The colourful warm-water fish Thalassoma pavo was favoured by rising temperatures in the westernMediterranean, establishing large and stable populations from 1985 onwards (Bianchi and Morri 1994)(Credit: F Cardigos/ImagDOP).<strong>Climate</strong> change in the Mediterranean als<strong>of</strong>avours epidemiological outbreaks, as mostpathogens are temperature sensitive. Studiesperformed on the coral Oculina patagonica44

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal Draftidentified the coral-bleaching bacteria Vibrioshiloi, as an agent involved in theMediterranean mass mortalities <strong>of</strong> coral(Kushmaro et al. 1998). Mass mortalities <strong>of</strong> thegorgonian Paramunicea clavata, scleractiniancorals, zoanthids, and sponges observed in1999 in the Ligurian Sea were indeed promotedby a temperature shift, in conjunction with thegrowth <strong>of</strong> opportunistic pathogens (includingsome fungi and protozoans; Cerrano et al.2000). Furthermore, viral life strategies may bepromoted by rising temperatures. Althoughdata are limited, morbilliviruses that causediseas epidemics in seal have been identifiedin Mediterranean monk seals (van de Bildt etal. 1999), potentially impacting the survival <strong>of</strong>this rare and endangered species.Adriatic SeaMost information dealing with climate changeimpacts on marine ecosystems in the centralpart <strong>of</strong> the Mediterranean has been collected inthe Adriatic Sea. During the past 30 years inthe Adriatic Sea, the thermophilic species <strong>of</strong>ichthy<strong>of</strong>auna have increased (Dulcic and Grbec2000). Fish and zooplankton species that werepreviously rare are becoming more abundant,and other new species are being recorded(Dulcic and Grbec 2000; Kamburska andFonda-Umani 2006). These observations arerelated to warming temperatures and salinityvariations in the Adriatic Sea, which intensifiedafter 1988 (Russo et al. 2002).Other climate changes (increases in stormfrequency and rainfall, and changes in windspeed and direction) also had an impact onwater properties (e.g. salinity, mixing, alteredturbidity), which in turn affect the whole AdriaticSea ecosystem (Russo et al. 2002). A number<strong>of</strong> phenomena such as blomms <strong>of</strong> jellyfish(Pelagia noctiluca) and thaliacea (Boero 1996),harmful algal blooms (by several species <strong>of</strong>din<strong>of</strong>lagellates) and red tides, were triggered bythese meteorological and oceanographicchanges (Boero 2001). Increased surfacetemperatures, altered circulation, andprecipitation changes causing increasedstratification have been invoked to explain theincreased frequency <strong>of</strong> bottom water hypoxia(low oxygen) or anoxia in coastal areas <strong>of</strong> thenorthern Adriatic. These phenomena, <strong>of</strong>tenassociated with mass mortalities <strong>of</strong> fish andbenthic fauna, alter foodwebs and may haveimportant cascade effects on biodiversity.The Adriatic Sea, furthermore, has undergonedramatic changes related to low temperatures.In the winter <strong>of</strong> 2001, the Adriatic Seaexperienced a period <strong>of</strong> abnormally low surfacetemperatures (from 9°C to freezing) that led tomass mortalities <strong>of</strong> sardines (Sardinella aurita)(Guidetti et al. 2002), with consequentalteration <strong>of</strong> the foodwebs. The Adriatic Basinis also the site for deep-water formation, as aresult <strong>of</strong> the Bora winds (northern-easternwinds passing through the valleys <strong>of</strong> theDinaric Alps) associated with decreasedtemperatures, although recent studies havereported a lack <strong>of</strong> open-sea convection relatedto higher temperatures (and mild winterconditions). This phenomenon alters deepwaterand strongly reduces springphytoplankton blooms and export production tothe deep layers.Eastern MediterraneanMost <strong>of</strong> the non-indigenous species in theMediterranean are thermophilic originating inthe tropical Indo-Pacific (Lessepsianmigrations, Galil 1993). The list <strong>of</strong> exoticanimals and plants that have invaded theMediterranean, and particularly the EasternMediterranean, is continuously increasing. Therise <strong>of</strong> seawater temperatures may be partlyresponsible for changes in the range <strong>of</strong> somespecies creating maritime corridors linking thisregion to other seas and regions. The invasion<strong>of</strong> non-indigenous species has resulted in thedislocation <strong>of</strong> other species and possiblycascade effects on foodwebs (CIESM 2002).“In the northern Adriatic, the frequency <strong>of</strong>appearance <strong>of</strong> mucilaginous aggregates(associated with a malfunctioning <strong>of</strong> themicrobial loop) has doubled in the last 25year, concomitantly with a significantincrease in sea surface temperature <strong>of</strong>circa 1.5°C.”Russo et al. (2002)45

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal Draft30<strong>Change</strong>s in Biodiversity(variation in SR)25201510500.00 0.10 0.20 0.30Temperature shift (°C)Relationship between temperature changes and species richness (nematodes) in the continentalmargins <strong>of</strong> the Eastern Mediterranean (data compiled by R. Danovaro).Despite an overall tendency towards seasurfacewarming, the Eastern Mediterraneanhas also experienced a temperature decrease.This major climatic event, defined as theEastern Mediterranean transient, with a declinein temperature <strong>of</strong> about 0.4°C, caused a drasticdecrease in faunal abundance and a significantchange in faunal diversity (Danovaro et al.2001). Between 1992 and 1994, a temperatureshift <strong>of</strong> 0.3°C resulted in a reduction <strong>of</strong>approximately 50% <strong>of</strong> nematode diversity (andpossibly the diversity <strong>of</strong> other groups).Moreover, the extent <strong>of</strong> the impact onnematode diversity was directly related to theextent <strong>of</strong> the temperature shift. Temperaturedeclines also caused a decrease in functionaldiversity and species evenness, resulting inincreased similarity between the nematodefauna <strong>of</strong> the warm deep-Eastern Mediterraneanand the colder deep-Atlantic. After 1994, whenthe temperatures gradually recovered to pretransientvalues, the biodiversity began torevert towards more evenness. However, thecommunity composition in 1998 still differedfrom that observed in 1989 (Danovaro et al.2004).Projections <strong>of</strong> climate change (Adriatic Sea,Eastern and Western Mediterranean)Due to its depth (on average ca 1450 m), rapiddeep-water turnover time (40-50 year), and thepresence <strong>of</strong> many endemic species (circa 25%<strong>of</strong> the species are restricted to theMediterranean), it is expected that the impacts<strong>of</strong> climate change may be amplified with earlierchanges in biodiversity than witnessed in otherseas.Recent evidence points to large-scale warming<strong>of</strong> the Mediterranean basin (Béthoux et al.1990; Astraldi et al. 1995; Walther et al. 2002)and changing biodiversity in response(Francour et al. 1994). However, the richness<strong>of</strong> microclimates in the Mediterranean (rangingfrom climate conditions similar to those <strong>of</strong> theNorthern Sea in the Adriatic to almost tropicalconditions in the Eastern Mediterranean)makes any prediction at large spatial scalesdifficult. Indeed, most effects <strong>of</strong> climate change(or climate anomalies) on marine biodiversityhave so far been identified only at regionalscales.These results indicate that: i) Mediterraneanfauna is highly vulnerable to climate change; ii)both structural and functional biodiversity <strong>of</strong>continental margins are significantly affected byvery small temperature changes, and iii) theimpact <strong>of</strong> climate change on marine biodiversitymight be irreversible. Moreover, these eventsindicate that not only coastal ecosystems butalso continental-margin ecosystems mayexperience abrupt climate-driven temperatureshifts, which reflect changes in the prevailingclimate conditions occurring on a regional scale(Bethoux et al. 1990). Since there are closeinteractions between deep-sea and coastalecosystems, the vulnerability <strong>of</strong> deep-seaecosystems to climatic changes may have46

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal Draftimportant implication on the biodiversity andfunctioning <strong>of</strong> continental shelf ecosystems.Current research and monitoringprogrammes and projects• European Union’s FrameworkProgrammes - funded projectsinvestigating aspects <strong>of</strong> the impacts <strong>of</strong>climate change (including seawater -atmosphere interaction) in theMediterranean Sea include ADIOS(Atmospheric deposition and impact <strong>of</strong>pollutants, key elements and nutrients onthe open Mediterranean -http://forecast.uoa.gr/adios/index.html),INTERPOL (Impact <strong>of</strong> natural and trawlingevents on resuspension, dispersion andfate <strong>of</strong> pollutants), HERMES (HotspotEcosystem Research on Europe's Deep -Ocean Margin - www.eu-hermes.net),ORFOIS (Origin and fate <strong>of</strong> biogenicparticle fluxes in the ocean and theirinteraction with the atmospheric CO 2concentration as well as the marinesediment -http://www.pangaea.de/Projects/ORFOIS/)and SESAME (Southern European Seas:Assessing and Modelling Ecosystemchanges);• The CIESM financially supported theprogramme CIESM-SUB (sur-un-bateau)aimed at investigating the effect <strong>of</strong> recentlclimate change in the deep-Mediterranean;• The projects CoMarge and Nagisapromoted by the Census <strong>of</strong> Marine Lifeand sustained by EuroCOML allow gatherinformation on long-term changes <strong>of</strong>marine biodiversity to improveunderstanding <strong>of</strong> the impacts <strong>of</strong> climatechange on coastal and deep-seaecosystems;• Programmes and projects implemented atnational level include SINAPSI andVECTOR, financially supported by theItalian government.47

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal Draft4.11 BLACK SEADescription <strong>of</strong> the areaThe Black Sea is a deep (about 2000 m) ovalshapedbasin with the zonal and meridionaldimensions <strong>of</strong> ~1000 km and ~400 km,respectively, located approximately between28° and 42°E longitudes, 41° and 46°Nlatitudes. The Black Sea has only a narrowopening to the shallow (

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal DraftOnce the small pelagic fish became the maintarget <strong>of</strong> industrial fisheries, their catchesbegan to decrease and gradually shiftedtowards newly recruited, small-sized fishspecies during the 1980s. The catches finallyexceeded a sustainable level in 1987 and 1988(Shiganova 1998; Gucu 2002; Daskalov 2002)and collapsed in 1989 and 1990.The niche vacated by these fish was graduallyreplaced by gelatinous zooplankton (inparticular the jellyfish Aurelia aurita) and otheropportunistic species (e.g. Noctilucascintillans).Temporal variations <strong>of</strong> the atmospheric index (ATI) (squares), marine physical climate index (PCI)(dots), and ecological index (ECOI) (stars) from 1960 to 1999. All three indices possess remarkablesynchronous oscillations with a period <strong>of</strong> 10-12 years (Oguz et al. 2006).WAITING FOR AGREEMENTThe increase in Aurelia Aurita biomass in the1970s may have been associated withoverfishing and removal <strong>of</strong> mackerel, whichwas a main predator <strong>of</strong> this jellyfish in the BlackSea. Because <strong>of</strong> their competitive advantagefor food, when compared with small pelagic fishspecies, and their predation on eggs and larvae<strong>of</strong> these fish species, the total gelatinousbiomass, mostly <strong>of</strong> the jellyfish Aurelia aurita,reached 1.5 kg m -2 during the mid-1980s, andfinally attained the peak value <strong>of</strong> about 2.5 kgm -2 in 1989 when the population <strong>of</strong> thectenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi exploded.Relaxation <strong>of</strong> the fishing pressure during thesecond half <strong>of</strong> the 1980s may be responsiblefor a gradual increase in the mesozooplanktonbiomass up to its maximum value <strong>of</strong> 15 g m -2 in1990, when the small pelagic fish stockcollapsed and the Mnemiopsis populationexploded. Predation <strong>of</strong> Mnemiopsis on fishlarvae further accelerated depletion <strong>of</strong> smallpelagic stock at the expense <strong>of</strong> an additionalincrease in Mnemiopsis biomass.Strong changes continued to prevail in 1991-1993. As phytoplankton biomass continued toretain its maximum level and the entire pelagicstocks were depleted, herbivorous zooplanktonand gelatinous carnivore standing stockscollapsed abruptly within a year. Completecollapse <strong>of</strong> standing stocks at all trophic levelsabove the first level, reflects a uniquecatastrophic event experienced by any largemarine ecosystem over the world to date.The Black Sea has been impacted by theadverse effect <strong>of</strong> climatic warming after themid-1990s, which led to poor nutrientenrichment <strong>of</strong> the surface layer andsubsequent decrease in phytoplanktonabundance. Poor productivity <strong>of</strong> all highertrophic levels occurred due to limited foodavailability. The decline <strong>of</strong> Mnemiopsishowever helped small pelagic fish to recover, totake over the control <strong>of</strong> the food web, and toestablish gradually the classical food chain.The introduction in 1998 <strong>of</strong> another gelatinouscarnivore Beroe ovata into the Black Sea (viaballast waters), which preyed mainly onMnemiopsis, also contributed to recovery <strong>of</strong> theecosystem at the end <strong>of</strong> 1990s. Beroe ovataadapted quickly and easily to the Black Seaconditions, and spread a year later over mostparts <strong>of</strong> the sea. Predation <strong>of</strong> Mnemiopsis byBeroe was immediately reflected by a two-tothreefold increase in mesozooplanktonbiomass, ichtyoplankton biomass, and fishstocks (Kideys 2002; Shiganova et al. 2003).The impact <strong>of</strong> climate change on the rise andfall <strong>of</strong> small pelagic standing stocks emergesvery clearly in the temporal distributions <strong>of</strong>sprat and anchovy abundance (Oguz et al.2006). Sprat and anchoys are the two mostdominant small pelagic fish species in theBlack Sea and acted as the top predators in theecosystem following the depletion <strong>of</strong> higherpredators due to overfishing during the 1960sand the early 1970s. Sprat is a cold-waterspecies spawning in autumn and wintermonths. Sprat stocks therefore increased up to49

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal Draft500-600 ktons during the cold years (during themid-1970s and mid-1980s) and dropped to aminimum level <strong>of</strong> about 100-200 ktons duringthe warm years (early 1970s and 1980s). Onthe other hand, anchovy is a warm waterspecies, spawns preferentially during summerand autumn months, and therefore follows anopposite trend in variations to those <strong>of</strong> spratstocks between the extreme values <strong>of</strong> 300 and700 ktons. The cyclic variations in both spratand anchovy stocks were however disrupted byan abrupt drop in their stocks to about 100ktons at the end <strong>of</strong> the 1980s as they hadexceeded a sustainable level in 1987 due tostrong overfishing (Prodanov et al. 1997; Gucu2002). In addition, excessive feeding pressureintroduced by high Mnemiopsis leidyipopulations may have contributed to depletion<strong>of</strong> the sprat stocks (e.g. Shulman et al. 1994;Shiganova 1998; Kideys et al. 2000).Projections <strong>of</strong> climate changeAt present, no projection on how climatechange may affect this region is available. Thedata show well defined oscillations during thepast 100 years and there is no reason toexpect that these oscillations will not continueinto the future. However, these oscillations maybe superimposed on a more well-definedgeneral trend <strong>of</strong> warming. The Black Searegion is influenced by several teleconnectionpatterns, making future predictions morechallenging than areas that are mainlymodulated by, for example, the NAO alone. Inaddition, this region was strongly influenced byexternal factors other than climate changealone, such as eutrophication and overfishing.Both eutrophication and overfishing have hadtremendous impacts on the ecosystem and stillhave a strong influence.Current research and monitoringprogrammes and projects in the Black Sea• The various research and monitoringprogrammes and projects which arepresently carried out from national fundingin different countries bordering the BlackSea are mostly decoupled, except for afew small-scale collaborative effortsfunded by various international bodies includingthe European Union;• Truly interdisciplinary, internationalcollaborative research efforts are neededto detect and monitor the evolution <strong>of</strong> thepresent post-eutrophication phase <strong>of</strong> theecosystem.50

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal Draft4.12 GENERAL TRENDS AND REGIONAL-SPECIFIC EXPECTATIONSRecent research, including the examination <strong>of</strong>ice cores and growth rings <strong>of</strong> ancient trees,shows that the Northern Hemisphere has beenwarmer since 1980 than at any other timeduring the last 2000 years (Mann and Jones2003; Moberg et al. 2005). The observed andpredicted increase in temperature underclimate change is generally higher in northernthan in southern European seas. For the mostnorthern seas, such as the Arctic and theBarents Sea, the most obvious temperaturerelatedchange is the decline in sea-ice cover.Both the Arctic and the Barents Sea arepredicted to be ice-free during summer withinthe next 100 years. The reduction <strong>of</strong> theformerly ice-covered area is expected to resultin a decline, and possible extinction, <strong>of</strong> thespecies that depend on this habitat, such asringed seals and polar bears. Thedisappearance <strong>of</strong> the ice may increase localproductivity level in the sea. At a larger scale,the reduction <strong>of</strong> the ice-covered areas maylead to an increase in heat absorption andchanges in convection and water massformation, possibly affecting temperature andocean currents globally.Although all ecosystems have been influencedby many other factors, such as eutrophicationand overfishing, every region examined hasshown at least some changes which are mostlikely direct or indirect result <strong>of</strong> recent climatechange. Although there can be no certaintyregarding the precise nature and rate <strong>of</strong> futureclimate change, even the more moderate <strong>of</strong> thepredicted scenarios is expected to further alterthe marine environment. For future planningand development <strong>of</strong> adaptation strategies toclimate change, improved understanding andprevision <strong>of</strong> the ultimate consequences <strong>of</strong>climate change in relation to concurrent effects<strong>of</strong> other stressors such as changes in nutrientloads, invasion <strong>of</strong> non-indigenous species andexploitation <strong>of</strong> marine living resources isneeded.The population <strong>of</strong> many marine species areexhibiting a displacement northward. The rateand direction <strong>of</strong> this movement, however,differs amongst the various seas and species.Enclosed seas, such as the Baltic Sea, theMediterranean and the Black Sea, have onlysmall and primarily east-west orientatedmovement corridors, which may restrictnorthward displacement in these areas. Furtherwarming will presumably drive the marinespecies with a preference for cooler waters upto the northern coastlines <strong>of</strong> these areas,followed by extinction if they are not able toadapt to the new circumstances. Invasion <strong>of</strong>warm-water species into the North Sea andEnglish Channel could occur by speciesoriginating from the south or the east, and byspecies originating from the more oceanicwaters <strong>of</strong>f the western coasts <strong>of</strong> Britain, Irelandand France, which have relatively high wintertemperatures. Noticeably, the enclosed seasappear to have undergone far more dramaticchanges than the more open seas during thepast decades. Relatively small changes in thefrequency <strong>of</strong> inflow (as in the Baltic Sea) or intemperature (as in the Eastern Mediterraneanand Black Sea) have had strong effects onlarge parts <strong>of</strong> the ecosystem. This implies thatalthough the temperature increase is predictedto be relatively small in the more southernwaters, the effects <strong>of</strong> climate change are stilllikely to be quite large in these waters.For most open seas, there is evidence <strong>of</strong>species moving northwards and/or northernspecies being replaced by more southern ones.Such changes not only affect the localecosystems, but also the international fishingindustry when commercial species are affected.It must be noted, however, that a climateinduceddecline in species abundance andbiodiversity may trigger over-fishing if one triesto gain the same yield from a (locally) reducedstock. Under such circumstances, it isimpossible to distinguish between the effects <strong>of</strong>climate change and over-fishing. Even in themore open seas, however, species do notalways move northwards if prey are notavailable. Both in the Barents Sea and in theNorth Sea, marine mammals were observed tomove southwards when their prey stockscollapsed. Such changes indicate that detailedknowledge <strong>of</strong> species’ physiology,bioenergetics and behaviour is needed toadequately predict the impact <strong>of</strong> climatechange on the distribution <strong>of</strong> marine organismsand marine food webs.It is expected that within open systems therewill generally be northward movement <strong>of</strong>species, for example Arctic species will bereplaced by Atlantic species in the morenorthern seas such as the Arctic, Barents Seaand the Nordic Seas, while temperate specieswill be replaced byb more subtropical speciesin the southern seas such as the Iberianupwelling margin. For seas that are highlyinfluenced by river run<strong>of</strong>f, such as the BalticSea, an increase in freshwater due toenhanced rainfall will lead to a shift frommarine to more brackish and even freshwaterspecies. If enclosed systems such as theMediterranean and the Black Sea lose theirendemic species, their associated niches willprobably be filled by species originating fromadjacent waters and, possibly, from othersources such as ballast water.European seas consist <strong>of</strong> more than 68,000kilometres <strong>of</strong> coastline, harbouringinternationally important wetlands, and majorcities and ports. The combination <strong>of</strong>accelerating sea level rise (and a possible51

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal Draftincrease in the frequency and intensity <strong>of</strong>storms), as predicted for most European seas,will severely increase the risk <strong>of</strong> flooding andsubsequent loss <strong>of</strong> these areas. Furtherextension, raising and reinforcement <strong>of</strong> artificialcoastal defences may protect populated areas,but result in loss <strong>of</strong> sedimentary nourishment <strong>of</strong>coastal marine habitats, with consequences forliving marine resources, including aquaculture.Many marine organisms such as fish spendpart <strong>of</strong> their life cycle in the relatively shelteredareas along the coast. Loss <strong>of</strong> these areas mayimpact on these animals during that specificpart <strong>of</strong> their life cycle. In addition, changes inthe strength and seasonality <strong>of</strong> upwelling inareas along the coast could influence theretention-dispersal mechanisms <strong>of</strong> (juvenile)fish and shellfish between coastal waters andopen sea, with unknown consequences forspecies’ recruitment.52

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal Draft5 FUTURE NEEDS FOR MONITORING AND INDICATORS5.1 IntroductionAlthough marine waters are relatively wellmonitored throughout Europe, most <strong>of</strong> thesemonitoring programmes and projects arelimited to regional seas (or parts there<strong>of</strong>) and/orto a few parameters selected as indicators <strong>of</strong> aparticular state (e.g. temperature,concentrations <strong>of</strong> a particular contaminant, size<strong>of</strong> a commercial fish stock). At present, pan-European monitoring programmes and projectsare being developed in the context <strong>of</strong> the EUWater Framework Directive and the EU MarineThematic Strategy (see Box 3). A concertedeffort is needed to ensure that previously andcurrently collected marine environmental dataand those that are planned as part <strong>of</strong> futurepan-European initiatives contribute to a betterevaluation <strong>of</strong> climate change and its impacts.5.2 IndicatorsAn indicator (e.g. temperature or length <strong>of</strong>growing season) is defined as a variable ormeasure that reveals some key element <strong>of</strong> asystem. Its value and long-term trend indicatesthe present state relative to a reference pointand thus measures dynamics <strong>of</strong> the system.Specific indicators can be used to monitortrends and detect sudden changes inenvironmental conditions which are consideredto be the result <strong>of</strong> climate variability.Indicators should be simple, reliable andaffordable; simplicity implies easy tounderstand and to measure. To be reliable,indicators should be conceptually andmethodologically well founded. Indicatorsbased on ongoing long-term monitoringprogrammes and projects can takeadvantage <strong>of</strong> tested protocols for routinecollection <strong>of</strong> data, historical data for estimation<strong>of</strong> reference values (for example, an averagetemperature for the period 1961-1990) andTo predict the consequences <strong>of</strong> climate changefor our marine environment, it is necessary tomeasure parameters that are indicative <strong>of</strong>underlying mechanisms <strong>of</strong> climate-inducedchanges. Since the indicative value <strong>of</strong> theparameters may change in time, the application<strong>of</strong> such mechanistic indicators should go handin hand with in-depth research on thesemechanisms. New technologies should beemployed to measure these types <strong>of</strong> indicators(e.g. fluxes) and to reach the appropriatetemporal and spatial resolution (e.g. usingautomatic sampling equipment and satelliteimages).build up confidence in interpretation. If longtermmonitoring protocols have to be adaptedfor new indicators, however, some conflict mayarise between consistency and improvement.Application <strong>of</strong> indicators on a pan-Europeanscale requires that the indicators areconsistently measured over time and over abroad range <strong>of</strong> ecosystems. Intercalibration <strong>of</strong>similar indicators (e.g. primary production) isdesirable, but not essential if the rate <strong>of</strong>change, and not the actual value is desired.None <strong>of</strong> the individual indicators is likely to beinfluenced by climate change alone. Groups <strong>of</strong>indicators will therefore be needed toconclusively demonstrate if and how climatechange affects marine systems.53

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentBox 3: Towards Pan-European monitoring Final Draft activitiesOn 23 October 2000, the Directive 2000/60/EC <strong>of</strong> the European Parliament and <strong>of</strong> the Councilestablishing a framework for the Community action in the field <strong>of</strong> water policy; known as the EU WaterFramework Directive (WFD) was adopted (http://ec.europa.eu/environment/water/water-framework).The key objectives at European level are general protection <strong>of</strong> the aquatic ecology, specific protection <strong>of</strong>unique and valuable habitats, protection <strong>of</strong> drinking water resources, and protection <strong>of</strong> bathing water. Allthese objectives must be integrated for each River Basin District, defined by natural geographical andhydrological boundaries and including coastal waters, up to one nautical mile beyond shoreline. Thegeneral objective <strong>of</strong> the WFD is to achieve "good ecological status" (for ecological protection) and goodchemical status (minimum chemical standard) for all surface waters by 2015. The first deadline in theDirective relating to monitoring is at the end <strong>of</strong> 2007, when Member States should have their monitoringprogrammes defined and ready for commencement.On 7 June 2006, the European Commission adopted a Green Paper on a Future Maritime Policy forthe European Union (http://ec.europa.eu/maritimeaffairs). One <strong>of</strong> the motivations for the EU to beinvolved in such as policy is that it recognises that the protection <strong>of</strong> marine ecosystems and fisheriesresources in European waters cannot be tackled by Member States individually. Meanwhile, a MarineThematic Strategy Directive will establish European Marine Regions on the basis <strong>of</strong> geographical andenvironmental criteria. Each Member State, in close cooperation with the relevant other Member Statesand third countries within a Marine Region, will be required to develop Marine Strategies for its marinewaters. The Marine Strategies will contain a detailed assessment <strong>of</strong> the state <strong>of</strong> the environment, adefinition <strong>of</strong> good environmental status at regional level and the establishment <strong>of</strong> clear environmentaltargets and monitoring programmes. The key aim is to achieve good status <strong>of</strong> the EU’s marineenvironment by 2021. One proposal <strong>of</strong> the Green Paper is to establish a European MarineObservation and Data Network which would provide a sustainable focus for improving systematicobservation (in situ and from space), interoperability and increasing access to data, based on robust,open and generic information and communication technology solutions. In this context, the GlobalMonitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) initiative will implement a number <strong>of</strong> publicinformation services in support <strong>of</strong> European policies, derived from in situ and space observations(http://www.gmes.info). It is proposed that GMES should constitute a major component for the DataNetwork <strong>of</strong> the Maritime Policy.5.3 Abiotic IndicatorsAbiotic indicators <strong>of</strong> potential climate changeconsist <strong>of</strong> ocean forcing functions(atmospheric and hydrological) as well as seaiceand oceanographic properties. Theserepresent a minimum suite <strong>of</strong> indicators neededto address climate change issues anddetermine possible causes <strong>of</strong> ecosystemchanges. Many <strong>of</strong> these indicators are alreadybeing measured or estimated, but suchmeasurments must be maintained. Othersneed to be expanded. Year-to-year variations<strong>of</strong> the indicators should be considered, andalso the seasonal variation (e.g. onset <strong>of</strong>stratification and upwelling). Abiotic indicatorsinclude:Atmospheric Indicators• Large-scale atmospheric pressureindices (e.g. NAO, AO, etc.);• Atmospheric temperatures at standardmeteorological sites;• Winds, directly measured as well asmodelled values that provide broad spatialcoverage throughout European waters;• Precipitation directly measured atstandard meteorological sites plusmodelled values over marine areas.Hydrological Indicators• River run<strong>of</strong>f in all <strong>of</strong> the major rivers inEurope and flowing into the Arctic;• Estimated total river run<strong>of</strong>f into each <strong>of</strong>the major European marine regions(including human activities in catchmentareas such as agriculture irrigation andcanalisation <strong>of</strong> rivers).Sea-ice Indicators• Sea-ice area coverage in the Baltic,Barents and Nordic Seas and the Arctic;• Sea-ice concentrations, thickness andice type, including amount <strong>of</strong> multi-yearice.54

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal DraftOceanographic Indicators• Temperature and salinity: This shouldinclude continuation <strong>of</strong> long-termmonitoring such as the Kola Section in theBarents Sea and the Weather Station Mikein the Norwegian Sea, as well asnumerous coastal sites, standard oceantransects, etc; monitoring <strong>of</strong> sea-surfacetemperatures by satellite; and use <strong>of</strong> newtechnology such as gliders forundersampled regions (e.g. the Arctic) andseasons (winter);• Mixed Layer Depth: The depth <strong>of</strong> thesurface mixed layer;• Stratification: The strength <strong>of</strong> verticalchange in density between the mixed layerand subsurface waters;• Heat content: The amount <strong>of</strong> heat in theupper 200 m <strong>of</strong> the ocean;• Ocean Fronts: The position <strong>of</strong> the largescaleocean fronts separating watermasses with different temperature andsalinity characteristics, e.g. the Arctic Frontbetween Arctic and Atlantic water massesin the Nordic and Barents Seas;• Sea level elevations: directmeasurements at long-term coastal sealevel monitoring sites and estimates fromsatellite information;• Frequency, intensity and location <strong>of</strong>storm surges;• Volume transports: Currentmeasurements should focus on waterexchanges in channels and straits such asthe Fram Strait, Denmark Strait, theentrances to the Barents Sea and NorthSea as well as the Baltic (Kattegat), theMediterranean (Straits <strong>of</strong> Gibraltar) and theBlack Sea (Bosphorus and Dardenelles);• North Atlantic currents: Detected fromsatellite altimetry and annual hydrologicaldata along 26°N and along 22°W;• Regional currents: e.g. the Iberianpoleward current (IPC);• Upwelling indices (based on measure <strong>of</strong>upwelling frequency and intensity):obtained from wind data, satellite thermalimagery and in situ observations forregions <strong>of</strong>f the Iberian Peninsula and <strong>of</strong>fthe Bay <strong>of</strong> Biscay.Coastline indicators• Number <strong>of</strong> stormy days (above a fixedwind speed);• Rise in sea level relative to land;• Frequency and intensity <strong>of</strong> floodingevents;• Coastal erosion and accretion: length <strong>of</strong>protected and defended coastline; areaand volume <strong>of</strong> sand nourishment;• Status and trend <strong>of</strong> specified coastalhabitats; salt marsh, tidal flats, sanddunes, sandy beaches.5.4 Biotic indicatorsBiotic indicators <strong>of</strong> potential climate change canbe categorised into four groups, as indicatorsrelated to : i) community composition, ii)species abundance, iii) phenology <strong>of</strong>biological events, and iv) distribution <strong>of</strong>marine organisms. Some aspects <strong>of</strong> theseindicators are already being measured orestimated, but they must be recalculated to beused as an indicator for climate change; otheraspects still need to be developed. Bioticindicators include:Community composition indicators• The ratio <strong>of</strong> species with colderaffinities to those with warmer affinitieswithin phytoplankton, zooplankton,macrozoobenthos, fish, bird and mammalcommunities;• The ratio between diatoms anddin<strong>of</strong>lagellates within phytoplanktoncommunities;• The biomass ratio between populations<strong>of</strong> demersal and pelagic fish; biomass ratioin catch and landing statistics may also beused.• The (functional) biodiversity <strong>of</strong>microbes and changes there<strong>of</strong> in spaceand time, as detected via new rapidsequence techniques.Abundance indicators• Phytoplankton: CPR colour index(chlorophyll) and satellite-derivedmeasures <strong>of</strong> chlorophyll concentrations;• Standing stocks <strong>of</strong> fish as a measure <strong>of</strong>production at this higher trophic level (theyare strongly influenced by fishing effort, butwill still to some extent reflect climatevariability).55

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal DraftPhenology indicators• Onset <strong>of</strong> the phytoplankton springbloom and timing <strong>of</strong> flowering <strong>of</strong>seagrass;• Timing <strong>of</strong> reproduction and seasonalmigration <strong>of</strong> selected species <strong>of</strong>zooplankton, macrozoobenthos, fish,birds and mammals.SeaWiFS satellite images <strong>of</strong> chlorophyll concentrations in the North-east Atlantic. (Data collection:NASA’s SeaWiFS Project – GeoEye/Data analysis: Plymouth Marine Laboratory for analysis/).Reproduction indicators• Recruitment indices (indices for yearclass strength) for macrozoobenthos andfish;• Recruitment-spawning stockrelationships for macrozoobenthos andfish;• Reproductive parameters: age and sizeat maturity, size <strong>of</strong> reproductive output,development time, and condition <strong>of</strong>juveniles;• Reproductive volume: the water masssuitable for reproduction (e.g. for cod in theBaltic Sea the reproductive volume isestimated from information on salinity, ascod eggs float at salinity > 11 ppm, andfrom information on oxygen content, as theminimum oxygen concentration for codeggs to survive is 2 ml l -1 ). Cod recruitmentis poor if the reproductive volume is small.Distribution indicators• Range extension <strong>of</strong> existing species(presence/absence);• Annual and seasonal connectivitybetween subpopulations <strong>of</strong> specieswith pelagic larvae;• Records <strong>of</strong> non-indigenous species;• Abundance-weighted centres <strong>of</strong>distribution.56

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal Draft5.5 RecommendationsWith regard to future monitoring and the use <strong>of</strong>indicators, the authors recommend thefollowing actions:• Maintenance <strong>of</strong> sustained monitoringefforts (large-scale and long-termprogrammes and projects and localefforts);• Use <strong>of</strong> new technologies to increasespatial and temporal resolution <strong>of</strong>measurements (e.g. ARGO floats, ferryboxes, gliders, satellite images, genomics);• New or increased monitoring at keylocations, e.g. encouragement <strong>of</strong>monitoring efforts by Russia (in the BeringStrait) and Canada (in the CanadianArchipelago);• Development <strong>of</strong> new indicators to fill ingaps in knowledge on particular statevariables and processes. There is a realneed to develop a benthic habitat indicatorat the scale <strong>of</strong> the European shelf. Thiscould be achieved by using newtechnology based on multi-beam side-scansonar (in combination with in situmeasurements,e.g.www.searchmesh.net);• Development <strong>of</strong> both general large-scaleand specific regional indicators;• Establishment <strong>of</strong> a pan-European (orpreferably global) database with openaccess;• Pan-European annual reporting based onnational contributions (e.g.www.marlab.ac.uk).ARGO is a global array <strong>of</strong> 3,000 free-driftingpr<strong>of</strong>iling floats that measures the temperature andsalinity <strong>of</strong> the upper 2000 m <strong>of</strong> the ocean. Thisallows continuous monitoring <strong>of</strong> the temperature,salinity, and velocity <strong>of</strong> the upper ocean, with alldata being relayed and made publicly availablewithin hours after collection (Provor float waiting tobe recovered by the Japanese Coast Guard boat,the Takuro credit: www.argo.ucsd.edu).57

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal Draft6 FUTURE RESEARCH NEEDSArising from the preceding analysis <strong>of</strong> climatechange impacts on European marine andcoastal waters, a number <strong>of</strong> research needscan be identified. TFuture research needsinclude i) the identification and further analysis<strong>of</strong> historical data to describe past ocean climateand ecosystem development, and ii) a betterunderstanding <strong>of</strong> biogeochemical fluxes, foodweb dynamics and ecosystem functioning,including feedback mechanisms, under currentpredictions <strong>of</strong> climate change. Increasedunderstanding will enable the development <strong>of</strong>improved regional climate models andpredictive ecosystem models. As part <strong>of</strong> theglobal ecosystem, European researchprogrammes and projects on the marineenvironment must be integral to internationalresearch initiatives with a climate component,for example, IMBER, SOLAS, GLOBEC andCLIVAR.Historical Data and Sustained Observations1. Reconstructing past climates(Palaeoceanography): Further research isneeded to identify and analyse proxy datasets (ice and sediment cores, growth rings,etc) <strong>of</strong> climate change to recreate pastocean climate scenarios with the finestpossible spatial and temporal resolution tobetter understand geographic variationsand their causes under natural conditions.2. Harnessing existing environmentaldata: Increased effort is needed to identify,quality control, assess, and make availablethe wealth <strong>of</strong> existing environmental datacollected as part <strong>of</strong> regional seasmonitoring programmes and projects andannual fish stock assessment surveys, tobetter detect and quantify climate inducedecosystem changes.3. Support for the continuation and linking<strong>of</strong> existing monitoring and time seriesprogrammes and projects andimprovement in the spatial and temporalresolution <strong>of</strong> the variables. This wouldinclude, for example, the extension <strong>of</strong> theCPR (Continuous Plankton Recorder)surveys to all European Seas and theestablishment <strong>of</strong> new sustainedobservations in important regions (e.g.Iberian upwelling margin, Alboran Sea,Inner Bay <strong>of</strong> Biscay) by means <strong>of</strong> bothtraditional and new techniques (e.g.moorings and cabled networks).Oceanographic observations need to beintegrated with observations onbiodiversity and ecological processes inboth the pelagic and <strong>of</strong>fshore benthos, aswell as the littoral zones (intertidal andsubtidal).4. Synthesis and overview <strong>of</strong> climatechange in European marine waters: Thecompilation <strong>of</strong> Regional European Reportsusing a similar approach to ACIA (Arctic<strong>Climate</strong> Impact Assessment) and the BalticBACC (Baltex Assessment <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong><strong>Change</strong>).Drivers and Ecosystem Responses5. Large-Scale climate forcing: Europeanseas are strongly influenced by large-scaleatmospheric variability as reflected indifferent air pressure patterns throughindices such as the North AtlanticOscillation and the Arctic Oscillation.Research is needed to address therelationships between the differentpressure patterns and their interactions,the temporal variability in the strength <strong>of</strong>the patterns, the mechanisms responsiblefor their generation and variability,including far-field effects andteleconnection (e.g. the effects <strong>of</strong> theAleutian low pressure variability on theNAO) and the relative importance <strong>of</strong> thesefar-field effects compared to localprocesses.6. Ocean circulation and hydrodynamics:Research is needed to enhanceunderstanding <strong>of</strong> how ocean circulationand hydrodynamic conditions(temperature, salinity and stratification) willrespond to predicted climate change, withparticular emphasis on regional responses,time lapse to measurable response,variability and possible feed backmechanisms.7. Sea-ice and albedo effect: Sea-ice playsan important role in climate changethrough feedback mechanisms, e.g. as theresult <strong>of</strong> the high reflectivity <strong>of</strong> ice-coveredcompared to open ocean surfaces.Research is needed on the relationshipsbetween air-sea heat fluxes and sea-iceconcentrations, leads and melt ponds.8. Biogeochemical fluxes: Research isneeded on the influence <strong>of</strong> climate changeon microbially-driven biogeochemicalfluxes between ocean and atmosphere incoastal and in open waters, the influences<strong>of</strong> changes in the carbon and other cycleson sedimentation, and subsequentbenthic-pelagic coupling. There is a needto define the importance <strong>of</strong> the nitrogencycle (including nitrogen fixation) andatmospheric iron fertilisation for elementcycling in the ocean under the aspects <strong>of</strong>climate change, and to know how thesechanges affect the ratios between58

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal Draftelements such as carbon, nitrogen, andphosphorus in the water. Much is stillunknown on the impact <strong>of</strong> climate changeon oxygen levels and on anoxic areas (inparticular in enclosed seas such as theBaltic Sea and the Black Sea).9. Ecosystem structure and functioning:To understand and predict the effects <strong>of</strong>climate change on marine ecosystemstructure and functioning, there is arequirement to examine how climatechange will affect structural and functionalbiodiversity, how the structure (e.g.species composition, food web lengths,size distribution) and functioning (e.g.biomass, production and decompositionprocesses, predator-prey interactions) <strong>of</strong>marine ecosystems will change undercurrent predictions <strong>of</strong> climate change, andhow changes in the chemical composition<strong>of</strong> elements in the ocean will influence foodweb dynamics. Research is needed on thepossible consequences <strong>of</strong> climate changeon the nature and strength <strong>of</strong> theinteractions between the various trophiclevels <strong>of</strong> the system. Further research isneeded to predict when and under whatconditions climate-induced regime shifts <strong>of</strong>marine ecosystems will occur, if suchchanges will be reversible, and if so, whatare the recovery dynamics would be.Colonies <strong>of</strong> Phaeocystis globosa in the Wadden Sea. How well a model will predict the extent to whichmarine ecosystems are affected by climate change will depend on the detailed understanding <strong>of</strong> theresponse <strong>of</strong> species toward changes in temperature. For example, climate-driven changes in blooms <strong>of</strong>the highly abundant and harmful alga Phaeocystis globosa may have feed-back effects on the ocean’stemperature via its production <strong>of</strong> the cloud-forming gas dimethylsulphide (Credit: J.M. van Iperen/NIOZ).10. Adaptation and evolution: <strong>Climate</strong>change will result in a change in thephysical and biological environment formany marine organisms. It is as yetunknown, however, to what extentindividuals are able to change theirphysical or biochemical (phenotypic)characteristics in order to adapt to thesechanges (e.g. faster growth at highertemperatures), how populations willrespond genetically to the changes inselection pressure (e.g. shifts in timing <strong>of</strong>spawning), or how climate change willmodify the reproductive potential <strong>of</strong> marineorganisms. Part <strong>of</strong> the required informationmay be derived from using latitudinaldifferences in life-history patterns.11. Coastal habitats: Current models <strong>of</strong>climate change predict sea level rise andincreased frequency and intensity <strong>of</strong>storminess that will impact on the coastalzone. There is a need to examine if moreaccurate regional predictions <strong>of</strong> sea levelrise in Europe can be derived, taking intoaccount ice cap and glacial melting,alteration in the strength <strong>of</strong> oceancirculation, heating and freshening <strong>of</strong> thewater column and the rising or sinking <strong>of</strong>coastlines. This will facilitate research onthe socio-economic and ecologicalimplications for coastal protection and thedevelopment <strong>of</strong> adaptive strategies.59

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal DraftPredictive Models12. Improvement <strong>of</strong> regional climatemodels: In particular with respect to thehydrological cycle, e.g. river run-<strong>of</strong>f andthe role <strong>of</strong> clouds in evaporation.13. Development and validation <strong>of</strong>(regional) biophysical models:Biophysical models are being developed toinvestigate the effects <strong>of</strong> physical forcingon primary production, zooplanktondistribution and advection, fish andinvertebrate larval drift, and fish migration.Improvements in and validation <strong>of</strong> suchmodels need to be encouraged.14. Species loss: Modelling the effects <strong>of</strong>climate change on species distribution,abundance and competition and mappingpotential local and larger scale extinction.15. Triggers <strong>of</strong> biological events: Little isknown about the mechanisms triggeringevents such as spawning, diapause,migration, and temperature tolerance formost species. Some biological events aretemperature dependent while others arelight dependent. Since temperature willrise under climate change, while light willmore or less stay the same (except forchanges in cloud cover), there is a largepotential for a future mismatch in timing <strong>of</strong>lifecycle between some species and theirprey or predators. In order to make reliableecosystem predictions, knowledge <strong>of</strong> thetriggering mechanisms <strong>of</strong> biological eventsis absolutely essential.16. Food webs and species connectance inecosystems: Research is needed onpredator-prey relationships and functionalgroups. This information is necessary todetermine the energy flows in theecosystem (i.e. balancing production,consumption and mortality <strong>of</strong> species orspecies groups), and the influence <strong>of</strong>hydrology. To accurately assess impacts<strong>of</strong> climate change on ecosystem, willrequire enhanced understanding <strong>of</strong> theinteractions among different species.17. The roles <strong>of</strong> fishing, eutrophication andclimate change: <strong>Climate</strong> change isoccurring in combination with fishing andeutrophication. Research is needed onwhat can be assigned to each cause,including potential synergistic effects (e.g.fishing can cause fish stocks to becomemore vulnerable to climate change).Enabling Technologies and SupportingInitiatives18. Development <strong>of</strong> new technologies:Research is needed to design newobservational and measurement systems(e.g. sensors for air-sea interactions <strong>of</strong>specific substances for identifying longtermchanges in hydrodynamic regimesand changes in deep-water temperatures)to support climate change research.19. Participation in and contribution tointernational climate change researchprogrammes and projects should besuppported.20. Good and fast data access, includingpictures <strong>of</strong> changes in planktonassemblage composition and ocean colourdata (data centres, real time data, basicprocessing and computer programmes) isessential.60

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal DraftBIBLIOGRAPHYAACIA (2005). Arctic <strong>Climate</strong> Impact Assessment. Cambridge University Press, 1042 pAlcock R (2003). The effects <strong>of</strong> climate change on rocky shore communities in the Bay <strong>of</strong> Biscay, 1895-2050. PhDThesis Biodiversity and Ecology Division. University <strong>of</strong> Southampton, 286 pAlley RB, Clark PU, Huybrechts P, Joughin I (2005). Ice-sheet and sea level changes. Science 310, 456-460American Meteorological Society (2003). <strong>Climate</strong> change research: issues for the atmospheric and related sciences.Bull Amer Met Soc 84, 508-515Anadón R, Niell FX (1980). Distribución longitudinal de macrófitos en la costa asturiana (N de España). InvestigaciónPesquera 45, 143-156Ardré F (1970). Contribution à l'étude des algues marines du Portugal: I. La Flore. Portugalia Acta Biologica 10, 1-423Astraldi M, Bianchi CN, Gasparini GP, Morri C (1995). Climatic fluctuations, current variability and marine speciesdistribution: a case study in the Ligurian Sea (north-west Mediterranean). Oceanol Acta, 18, 139-149Astthorsson OS., Vilhjálmsson H (2002). Iceland Shelf LME: Decadal assessment and resource sustainability. In:Sherman K, Skjoldal HR (Eds) Large Marine Ecosystems <strong>of</strong> the North Atlantic: Changing States andSustainability. Elsevier Amsterdam, pp 219-243BBeaugrand G (2004). The North Sea regime shift: evidence, causes, mechanisms and consequences. ProgrOceanogr 60, 245–262Beaugrand G, Brander KM, Lindley JA, Souissi S, Reid PC (2003). Plankton effect on cod recruitment in the NorthSea. Nature 426, 661-664Beaugrand G, Reid PC (2003). Long-term changes in phytoplankton, zooplankton and salmon related to climate.Global <strong>Change</strong> Biol 9, 801-817Beaugrand G, Reid PC, Ibañez F, Lindley JA, Edwards M (2002). Reorganization <strong>of</strong> North Atlantic Marine CopepodBiodiversity and <strong>Climate</strong>. Science 296, 1692-1694Berge J, Johnsen G, Nilsen F, Gulliksen B, Slagstad D (2005). Ocean temperature oscillations enable reappearance<strong>of</strong> blue mussels Mytilus edulis in Svalbard after a 1000 year absence. Mar Ecol Progr Ser 303, 167-175Bergström S, Carlsson B (1994). River run<strong>of</strong>f to the Baltic Sea: 1950–1990. Ambio 23, 280-287Béthoux JP, Durieu de Madron X, Nyffeler F, Tailliez D (2002). Deep water in the Western Mediterranea : peculiar1999 and 2000 characteristics, formation variability since 1970 and geochemical inferences. J Mar Syst 33-34,117-131Béthoux JP, Gentili B, Raunet J, Tailliez D (1990). Warming trend in the western Mediterranean deep water. Nature347, 660–662Bianchi CN (1997). <strong>Climate</strong> change and biological response in the marine benthos. In: Piccazzo M (Ed.) Atti del 12°Congresso dell'Associazione Italiana di Oceanologia e Limnologia 1. AIOL, Genova, pp. 3-20Bianchi CN, Morri C (1994). Southern species in the Ligurian Sea (northern Mediterranean): new records and areview. Bollettino dei Musei e degli Istituti Biologici dell'Università di Genova 58-59 (1992-1993), 181-197Bianchi CN, Morri C (2000). Marine biodiversity <strong>of</strong> the Mediterranean Sea: situation, problems and prospects forfuture research. Mar Poll Bull 40, 367–376Bildt van de MWG, Vedder EJ, Martina BEE, Sidi BA, Jiddou AB, Barham MEO, Androukaki A, Kommenou A,Niesters HGM, Osterhaus ADME (1999). Morbilliviruses in Mediterranean monk seals. Veterinary Microbiology69, 19–21Blanchard F, Vandermeirsch F (2005). Warming and exponential abundance increase <strong>of</strong> the subtropical fish Caprosaper in the Bay <strong>of</strong> Biscay (1973-2002). C R Biol. 2005 May 328, 505-509Blanton JO, Tenore KR, Castillejo F, Atkinson LP, Schwing FB, Lavin A (1987). The relationship <strong>of</strong> upwelling tomussel production in the Rias on the western coast <strong>of</strong> Spain. J Mar Res 45, 497-57161

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal DraftBoaventura D, da Fonseca LC, Hawkins SJ (2002). Analysis <strong>of</strong> competitive interactions between the limpets Patelladepressa Pennant and Patella vulgata L. on the northern coast <strong>of</strong> Portugal. J Exp Mar Biol Ecol 271, 171-188Boelens R, Minchin D, O’Sullivan G (2005). <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong>: Implications for Ireland’s Marine Environment andResources. Marine Institute, Foresight Series, No. 2. 38pp.Boero F (2001). Adriatic ecological history: a link between jellyfish outbreaks, red tides, mass mortalities, overfishing,mucilages, and thaliacean plankton? CIESM, 2001. Gelatinous Zooplankton Outbreaks: Theory and Practice.CIESM Workshop Monographs, Monaco www.ciesm.org/publications/Boero F (1996). Episodic events: their relevance to ecology and evolution. PSZNI: Mar Ecol 17, 237-250Borja A, Uriarte A, Egaña J (2002). Environmental factors and recruitment <strong>of</strong> mackerel, Scomber scombrus L. 1758,along the north-east Atlantic coast <strong>of</strong> Europe. Fish Oceanogr 11, 116-127Brander K, Blom G, Borges MF, Erzini K, Henderson G, MacKenzie BR, Mendes H, Ribeiro J, Santos AMP, ToresenR (2003). <strong>Change</strong>s in fish distribution in the eastern North Atlantic: Are we seeing a coherent response tochanging temperature? ICES Mar Sci Symp 219, 261-270Bryden HL, Longworth HR, Cunningham SA (2005). Slowing <strong>of</strong> the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at25°N. Nature 438, 655-657CCarmack E, Chapman DC (2003). Wind-driven shelf/basin exchange on an Arctic shelf: The joint roles <strong>of</strong> ice coverextent and shelf-break bathymetry. Geophysical Research Letters, 30, 1778, doi:10.1029/2003GL017526Cendrero A, Sánchez-Arcilla A, Zazo C (2005). Impactos sobre las zonas costeras. In: Moreno JM (ed) Evaluaciónpreliminar de los Impactos en España por efecto del Cambio Climático. Oficina Española de Cambio Climático,Madrid, pp 469-524Cerrano C, Bavestrello G, Bianchi CN, Cattaneo-vietti R, Bava S, Morganti C, Morri C, Picco P, Sara G, SchiaparelliS, Siccardi A, Sponga F (2000). A catastrophic mass-mortality episode <strong>of</strong> gorgonians and other organisms inthe Ligurian Sea (North-western Mediterranean), summer 1999. Ecol Lett 3, 284–293.Chevaldonne P, Lejeusne C (2003). Regional warming-induced species shift in north-west Mediterranean marinecaves. Ecol Lett 6, 371–379CIESM (2002). Alien species introduced by ships in the Mediterranean and black sea. CIESM WorkshopMonographs, 20, 136 pp Monaco www.ciesm.org/publications/Curry R, Dickson R, Yashayaev I (2003). A change in the freshwater balance <strong>of</strong> the Atlantic Ocean over the past fourdecades. Nature 426, 826-829.DDanovaro R, Dell’Anno A, Fabiano M, Pusceddu A, Tselepides A (2001). Deep-sea ecosystem response to climatechanges: the eastern Mediterranean case study. TREE 16, 505-510.Danovaro R, Dell’Anno A, Fabiano M, Pusceddu A (2004). Biodiversity response to climate change in a warm deepsea. Ecol Lett 7, 821-828.Daskalov GM (2002). Overfishing drives a trophic cascade in the Black Sea. Mar Ecol Progr Ser 225, 53-63Delworth TL, Dixon KW (2000). Implications <strong>of</strong> the recent trend in the Arctic/North Atlantic Oscillation from the NorthAtlantic thermohaline circulation. J <strong>Climate</strong> 13, 3721-3727Dickson R, Yashayaev I, Meincke J, Turrell W, Dye S, Holfort J (2002). Rapid freshening <strong>of</strong> the deep North AtlanticOcean over the past four decades. Nature 416, 832-837Dickson RR, Curry R, Yashayaev I (2003). Recent changes in the North Atlantic. Phil Trans R Soc Lond A 361, 1917-1934Dippner JW, Ikauniece A (2001). Long-term zoobenthos variability in the Gulf <strong>of</strong> Riga in relation to climate variability.J Mar Syst 30, 155-164Dippner JW, Vuorinen I (2006). <strong>Climate</strong> related ecosystem change. In: von Storch H (Ed.) BALTEX Assessment <strong>of</strong><strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong>, Springer Verlag Berlin, Chapter 5Dowdeswell JA (2006). The Greenland Ice Sheet and global sea level rise. Science 311, 963-96462

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal DraftDrinkwater KF (2005). The response <strong>of</strong> Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) to future climate change. ICES J Mar Sci 62,1327-1337Drinkwater KF (2006). The regime shift <strong>of</strong> the 1920s and 1930s in the North Atlantic. Progr Oceanogr 68, 134-151Drinkwater K, Belgrano A, Borja A, Conversi A, Edwards M, Greene C, Ottersen G, Pershing A, Walker H. (2003).The Response <strong>of</strong> Marine Ecosystems to <strong>Climate</strong> Variability Associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. In:Hurrell J, Kushnir Y, Ottersen G, Visbeck M (Eds) The North Atlantic Oscillation: Climatic Significance andEnvironmental Impact: American Geophysical Union, pp. 211-234Dulcic J, Grbec B (2000). <strong>Climate</strong> change and Adriatic ichthy<strong>of</strong>auna. Fisheries Oceanography 9, 187–191EEdwards M, Johns DG, Leterme SC, Svendsen E, Richardson AJ (2006). Regional climate change and harmful algalblooms in the northeast Atlantic. Limnol Oceanogr 51, 820–829Edwards M, Richardson AJ (2004). Impact <strong>of</strong> climate change on marine pelagic phenology and trophic mismatch.Nature 430, 881-884Ellingsen IH, Dalpadado P, Slagstad D, Loeng H (2006). Impact <strong>of</strong> present and future climatic conditions on thephysical and biological environment <strong>of</strong> the Barents Sea. Climatic <strong>Change</strong> (in press).Evans GL, Williams P J le B, Mitchelson-Jacob EG (2003). Physical and anthropogenic effects on observed longtermnutrient changes in the Irish Sea. Est Coast Shelf Sci 57, 1159-1168FFischer-Piette E (1963). La distribution des principaux organismes intercotidaux Nord-Iberiques. Annales del InstituteOcéanographique, Paris 40, 165-311.Forbes E (1958). The distribution <strong>of</strong> marine life, illustrated chiefly by fishes and molluscs and radiate. In: A.K.Johnston’s Physical Atlas. W, AK Johnston: Edinburgh, pp. 99-101.Francis JA, Hunter E, Key JR, Wang X (2005). Clues to variability in Arctic minimum sea-ice extent. Geophys ResLett 32, L21501Francour P., Boudouresque C.F., Harmelin J.G., Harmelin-Vivien M.L., Quignard J.P., (1994). Are the Mediterraneanwaters becoming warmer ? Information from biological indicators. Mar. Pollut. Bull., 28 (9) : 523-526.Frei C, Scholl R, Fukutome S, Jurg Schmidli J, PL Vidale PL (2006). Future change <strong>of</strong> precipitation extremes inEurope: Intercomparison <strong>of</strong> scenarios from regional climate models. J Geophys Res 111, D06105,doi:10.1029/2005JD005965Furevik T, Drange H, Sorteberg A (2002). Anticipated changes in the Nordic Seas marine climate: Scenarios for2020, 2050 and 2080. Fisken og Havet 4.GGaines SD, Bertness MD (1992). Dispersal <strong>of</strong> juveniles and variable recruitment in sessile marine species. Nature360, 579-580.Galil BS (1993). Lessepsian migration: new findings on the foremost anthropogenic change in the Levant basinfauna. In Della Croce NFR (Ed.) Symposium Mediterranean Seas 2000. University <strong>of</strong> Genova, Istituto diScienze Ambientali Marine, Santa Margherita Ligure, pp. 307-323Garrabou J, Perez T, Sartoretto S, Harmelin JG (2001). Mass mortality event in red coral Corallium rubrumpopulations in the Provence region (France, NW Mediterranean). Mar Ecol Prog Ser 217, 263–272Genner MJ, Sims DW, Wearmouth VJ, Southall EJ, Southward AJ, Henderson PA, Hawkins SJ (2004). Regionalclimatic warming drives long-term community changes <strong>of</strong> British marine fish. Proc R Soc Lond B 271, 655-661González-Pola C, Lavín A, Vargas-Yáñez M (2005). Intense warming and salinity modification <strong>of</strong> intermediate watermasses in the southern corner <strong>of</strong> the Bay <strong>of</strong> Biscay for the period 1992-2003. J Geophys Res 110, 1-14Graham LP, Chen D, Christensen OB, Kjellström E, Krysanova V, Meier HEM, Radziewski M, Rockel B, RuosteenojaK, Räisänen J (2006). Projection <strong>of</strong> future climate change. In: von Storch H (Ed.) BALTEX Assessment <strong>of</strong><strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong>, Springer Verlag Berlin, Chapter 363

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal DraftGrebmeier JM, Smith WO, Conover RJ (1995). Biological processes on Arctic continental shelves: ice-ocean-bioticinteractions. In: Smith WO and Grebmeier JM (Eds). Arctic Oceanography: Marginal Zones and ContinentalShelves. Coastal and Estuarine Studies 49, 231-261Gucu AC (2002). Can overfishing be responsible for the successful establishment <strong>of</strong> Mnemiopsis leidyi in the BlackSea? Est Coast Shelf Sci 54, 439-451Guerra A, González AF, Rocha F (2002). Appearance <strong>of</strong> the common paper nautilus, Argonauta argo related to theincrease <strong>of</strong> the sea-surface temperature in the north-eastern Atlantic. J Mar Biol Assoc UK 82, 855-858Guidetti P, Boero F, Dulcic J (2002). Mass mortality <strong>of</strong> gilt sardine, Sardinella aurita (Clupeidae), in the Adriatic andIonian seas. Cybium 26, 317-319Guinotte JM, Orr J, Cairns S, Freiwald A, Morgan LE, George R (2006)- Will human-induced changes in seawaterchemistry alter the distribution <strong>of</strong> deep-sea scleractinian? Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 4, 141-146.HHagen E, Feistel R (2005). Climatic turning points and regime shifts in the Baltic Sea region: the Baltic winter index(WIBIX) 1659-2002. Boreal Environm Res 10, 211-224Häkkinen S, Rhines PB (2004). Decline <strong>of</strong> Subpolar North Atlantic Circulation During the 1990s. Science 304, 555-559Hansen B, Turrell WR, Østerhus S (2001). Decreasing overflow from the Nordic seas into the Atlantic Ocean throughthe Faroe Bank channel since 1950. Nature 411, 927-930.Härkönen T, Dietz R, Reijnders P, Teilmann J, Harding KC, Hall A, Brasseur S, Siebert U, Goodman S, Jepson P,Rasmussen TD, Thompson P (2006). A review <strong>of</strong> the 1988 and 2002 phocine distemper virus epidemics inEuropean harbour seals. Dis Aquat Org 68, 115–130Hasselmann K (1976). Stochastic climate models. Part I. Theory. Tellus 28,473-485Hawkins SJ, Southward AJ, Genner MJ (2003). Detection <strong>of</strong> environmental change in a marine ecosystem –evidence from the western English Channel. Sci Tot Environm 310, 245-246Hoepffner, N et al. (2006). Marine and Coastal Dimension <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> in Europe – A Report to the EuropeanWater Directors. European Commission – Joint Research Centre - Institute for Environment and SustainabilityHolgate SJ, Woodworth PL (2004). Evidence for enhanced coastal sea level rise during the 1990s. Geophys Res Lett31, L07305, doi:10.1029/2004GL019626, 2004Hulme M, Barrow E, Arnell NW, Harrison P, Downing T, Johns R (1999). Relative impacts <strong>of</strong> human-induced climatechange and natural variability. Nature 397, 688-691Hulme M, Jenkins GJ, X. L, Turnpenny JR, Mitchell TD, Jones RG, Lowe J, Murphy JM, Hassell D, Boorman P,McDonald R, Hill S (2002). <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> Scenarios for the United Kingdom: The UKCIP02 Scientific Report,Tyndall Centre for <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> Research, School <strong>of</strong> Environmental Sciences, University <strong>of</strong> East Anglia,Norwich UKvan den Hurk B, Klein Tank A, Lenderink G, van Ulden A, van Oldenborgh GJ, Katsman C, van den Brink H, Keller F,Bessembinder J, Burgers G, Komen G, Hazeleger W, Drijfhout S (2006). KNMI <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> Scenarios 2006for the Netherlands, KNMI Scientific Report WR 2006-01, Utrecht, 82 pHurrell JW, Dickson RR (2004). <strong>Climate</strong> variability over the North Atlantic. In: Stenseth NC, Ottersen G, Hurrell JW,Belgrano A (Eds) Marine Ecosystems and <strong>Climate</strong> Variation - the North Atlantic.Oxford University Press, pp. 15-31IIngvaldsen R, Loeng H, Ottersen G, Ådlandsvik B (2003). <strong>Climate</strong> variability in the Barents Sea during the 20thcentury with focus on the 1990s. ICES Mar Sci Symp 219, 160-168IPCC (1990). Response Strategies Working Group, 1990IPCC (2001). <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> 2001: The Scientific Basis, Contribution <strong>of</strong> Working Group I to the Third AssessmentReport <strong>of</strong> the Intergovernmental Panel on <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong>. J.T. Houghton, Y. Ding, D.J. Griggs, M. Noguer,P.J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell and C.A. Johnson (Eds.). Cambridge University Press, 881 p64

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal DraftIPCC (2001). <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> 2001: Synthesis Report. Watson, R.T. and the Core Writing Team (Eds.)Intergovernmental Panel on <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong>, Geneva, Switzerland.IPCC (2007). <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> 2007: The Physical Science Basis - Summary for Policymakers Contribution <strong>of</strong>Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report <strong>of</strong> the Intergovernmental Panel on <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong>.Intergovernmental Panel on <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong>, Geneva, Switzerland.JJackson JBC, Kirby MX, Berger WH, Bjorndal KA, Botsford LW, Bourque BJ, Bradbury RH, Cooke R, Erlandson J,Estes JA, Hughes TP, Kidwell S, Lange CB, Lenihan HS, Pandolfi JM, Peterson CH, Steneck RS, Tegner MJ,Warner RR (2001). Historical overfishing and the recent collapse <strong>of</strong> coastal ecosystems. Science 293, 629 –637. doi: 10.1126/science.1059199Janssen F, Neumann T, Schmidt M (2004). Inter-annual variability in cyanobacteria blooms in the Baltic Seacontrolled by wintertime hydrographic conditions. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 275, 59-68Johannessen OM, Bengtsson L, Miles MW, Kuzmina SI, Semenov VA, Alekseev GV, Nagurnyi AP, Zakharov VF,Bobylev LP, Pettersson LH, Hasselmann K, Cattle HP (2004). Arctic climate change: observed and modelledtemperature and sea-ice variability. Tellus 56A, 328-341Johannessen OM, Shalina EV, Miles M (1999). Satellite evidence for an Arctic sea-ice coverage in transformation.Science 286, 1937-1939Jónsson S, Vladimarsson H (2005). The flow <strong>of</strong> Atlantic water to the North Icelandic Shelf and its relation to the drift<strong>of</strong> cod larvae. ICES J Mar Sci 62, 1350-1359KKamburska L, Fonda-Umani S (2006). Long-term copepod dynamics in the Gulf <strong>of</strong> Trieste (Northern Adriatic Sea):recent changes and trends. Clim Res 31, 195-203.Kideys AE (2002). Fall and Rise <strong>of</strong> the Black Sea ecosystem. Science 297, 1482-1484Kideys AE, Kovalev AV, Shulman G, Gordina A, Bingel F (2000). A review <strong>of</strong> zooplankton investigations <strong>of</strong> the BlackSea over the last decade. J Mar Syst 24, 355-371Kitaysky AS, Kitaiskaia EV, Piatt JF, Wingfield JC (2005). A mechanistic link between chick diet and decline inseabirds? Proc Biol Sci Proc R Soc B 273, 445–450Koutsikopoulos C, Beillois P, Leroy C, Taillefer F (1998). Temporal trends and spatial structures <strong>of</strong> the sea-surfacetemperature in the Bay <strong>of</strong> Biscay. Oceanol Acta 21, 335-344Kushmaro A, Rosenberg E, Fine M, Ben Haim Y, Loya Y (1998). Effects <strong>of</strong> temperature on the bleaching <strong>of</strong> the coralOculina patagonica by the Vibrio AK-1. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 171, 131-137LLajus DL, Lajus JA, Dmitrieva ZV, Kraikovski AV, Alexandrov DA (2005). The use <strong>of</strong> historical catch data to trace theinfluence <strong>of</strong> climate on fish populations: examples from the White and Barents Sea fisheries in the 17th and 18thcenturies. ICES J mar Sci 62, 1426-1435Laxon S, Peacock N, Smith D (2003). High interannual variability <strong>of</strong> sea-ice thickness in the Arctic region. Nature425, 947-950Leslie HM, Breck EN, Chan F, Lubchenco J, Menge BA (2005). Barnacle reproductive hotspots linked to near shoreocean conditions. PNAS 102, 10534-10539Levitus S, Antonov JI, Boyer TP, Stephens C (2000). Warming <strong>of</strong> the world oceans. Science 287, 2225-2229Lima FP, Queiroz N, Ribeiro PA, Hawkins SJ, Santos AM (2006). Geographic expansion <strong>of</strong> a marine gastropod,Patella rustica Linnaeus, 1758, and its relation with unusual climatic events. J Biogeogr 33, 812–822Llope M, Anadón R, Viesca L, Quevedo M, González-Quirós R, Stenseth NC (2006). Hydrographic dynamics in theSouthern Bay <strong>of</strong> Biscay: integrating multi-scale physical variability over the last decade (1993-2003). J GeophysRes 111, C0921Loeng H, Bjorke H, Ottersen G (1995). Larval fish growth in the Barents Sea. Can Spec Publ Fish Aquat Sci 121,691–69865

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal DraftLüning K (1990). Seaweeds: their environment, biogeography, and ecophysiology, Wiley-Interscience Pub, NewYork, 527 pMMacdonald RW, Harnerb T, Fyfe J (2005). Recent climate change in the Arctic and its impact on contaminantpathways and interpretation <strong>of</strong> temporal trend data. Sci Tot Environm 342, 5-86.doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2004.12.059Mann ME, Jones PD (2003). Global surface temperatures over the past two millennia. Geophys Res Lett 30, 1820,doi:10.1029/2003GL017814Marcos M, Gomis D, Monserrat S, Álvarez E, Pérez B, García-Lafuente J (2005). Consistency <strong>of</strong> long sea level timeseries in the Northern coast <strong>of</strong> Spain. J Geophys Res 110, 1-13Marshall J, Kushnir Y, Battisti D, Chang P, Czaja A, Dickson R, Hurrell J, McCartney M, Saravanan R, Visbeck M(2001). North Atlantic climate variability: Phenomena, impacts and mechanisms. Int J Climatol 21,1863-1898,doi:10.1002/joc.693.Matthäus W, Frank H (1992). Characteristics <strong>of</strong> major Baltic inflows – a statistical analysis. Cont Shelf Res 12, 1375-1400Matthäus, W., (2006). The history <strong>of</strong> investigation <strong>of</strong> salt water inflow into the Baltic Sea – from the early beginning tothe recent results. Marine Science Reports, No. 65, Baltic Sea Research Institute Warnemünde, 81pp.McCalin CR, Signorini SR, Christian JR (2004). Subtropical gyre variability observed by ocean-color satellites. Deep-Sea Res II 51, 281-301McLaughlin F, Carmack E, Macdonald R, Weaver AJ, Smith J (2002). The Canada Basin, 1989-1995: Upstreamevents and far-field effects <strong>of</strong> the Barents Sea. J Geophys Res (Oceans) 107, 19.1-19.20Mieszkowska N, Leaper R, Moore P, Kendall MA, Burrows MT, Lear D, Poloczanska E, Hiscock K, Moschella PS,Thompson RC, Herbert RJ, Laffoley D, Baxter J, Southward AJ, Hawkins SJ (2005). Marine Biodiversity and<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong>: Assessing and Predicting the Influence <strong>of</strong> Climatic <strong>Change</strong> Using Intertidal Rocky Shore Biota.Occasional Publications. Mar Biol Assoc UK20, 53 p.Moberg A, Sonechkin DM, Holmgren K, Datsenko NM, Karlen W, Lauritzen (2005). Highly variable NorthernHemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data. Nature 433, 613-617Molinero JC, Ibanez F, Nival P, Buecher I, Souissi S (2005). North Atlantic climate and northwestern Mediterraneanplankton variability. Limnol Oceanogr 50, 1213-1220Möllmann C, Kornilovs G, Fetter M, Köster FW (2005). <strong>Climate</strong>, zooplankton, and pelagic fish growth in the centralBaltic Sea. ICES J Mar Sci 62, 1270-1280Morri C, Bianchi CN (2001). Recent changes in biodiversity in the Ligurian Sea (NW Mediterranean): is there aclimatic forcing? In: Faranda FM, Guglielmo L, Spezie G (Eds) Structure and Processes in the MediterraneanEcosystems. Springer, Milano, pp 375–384Myers RA, Worm B (2003). Rapid worldwide depletion <strong>of</strong> predatory fish communities. Nature 423, 280-283NNicholls RJ, Mimura N (1998). Regional issues raised by sea level rise and their policy implications. Clim Res 11, 5-18OOguz T, Dippner JW, Kaymaz Z (2006). Climatic Regulation <strong>of</strong> the Black Sea hydro-meteorological and ecologicalproperties at interannual-to-decadal time scales. J Mar Syst 60, 235-254Osborn TJ, Briffa KR (2006). The spatial extent <strong>of</strong> 20th-century warmth in the context <strong>of</strong> the past 1200 years. Science311, 841-844Østerhus S, Gammelsrød T (1999). The abyss <strong>of</strong> the Nordic Seas is warming. J <strong>Climate</strong> 12, 3297-3304Ottersen G, Loeng H, Ådlandsvik B, Ingvaldsen R (2003). Temperature variability in the Northeast Atlantic. ICES MarSci Symp 219, 86-9466

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal DraftOverland JE, Spillane MC, Percival DB, Wang M, M<strong>of</strong>jeld HO (2004). Seasonal and regional variation <strong>of</strong> pan-Arcticsurface air temperature over the instrumental record. J <strong>Climate</strong> 17, 3263–3282PPauly D, Christensen V, Dalsgaard J, Froese R, Torres Jr. FC (1998). Fishing down marine food webs. Science 279:860-863Perez T, Garrabou J, Sartoretto S, Harmelin JG, Francour P, Vacelet J (2000). Mortalité massive d’invertébrésmarins: unévénement sans précédent en Méditerranée nord-occidentale. C R Acad Sci Paris, Sci Vie 323, 853–865Perry AL, Low PJ, Ellis JR, Reynolds JD (2005). <strong>Climate</strong> change and distribution shifts in marine fishes. Science 308,1912-1915.Philippart CJM, van Aken HM, Beukema JJ, Bos OG, Cadee GC, Dekker R (2003). <strong>Climate</strong>-related changes inrecruitment <strong>of</strong> the bivalve Macoma balthica. Limnol Oceanogr 48, 2171–2185Pingree R (2002). Ocean structure and climate (Eastern North Atlantic): in situ measurement and remote sensing. JMar Biol Assoc UK 82, 681-707Pingree R (2005). North Atlantic and North Sea climate change: curl up, shut down, NAO and ocean colour. J MarBiol Assoc UK 85, 1301-1315Pingree RD, Griffiths DK (1978). Tidal fronts on the shelf seas around the British Isles. J Geophys Res (Oceans andAtmospheres) 83, 4615-4622Pingree RD, Le Cann B. (1989). Celtic and Armorican slope and shelf residual currents. Progr Oceanogr 23, 303-338Planque B, Beillois P, Jégou AM, Lazure P, Petitgas P, Puillat I (2003). Large-scale hydroclimatic variability in theBay <strong>of</strong> Biscay: the 1990s in the context <strong>of</strong> interdecadal changes, ICES Mar Sci Symp 219, 61–70Polyakov IG, Beszczynska A, Carmack EC, Dmitrenko IA, Fahrbach E, Frolov IE, Gerdes R, Hansen E, Holfort J,Ivanov VV, Johnson MA, Karcher M, Dauker F, Morison J, Orvik KA, Schauer U, Simmons HL, Skagseth Ø,Sokolov VT, Steele M, Timokhov LA, Walsh D, Walsh JE (2005). One more step toward a warmer Arctic.Geophys Res Lett 32, LI7605, doi:10.1029/2005GL023740Prodanov K, Mikhaylov K, Daskalov G, Maxim K, Ozdamar E, Shlyakhov V, Chashcin A, Arkhipov A (1997).Environmental management <strong>of</strong> fish resources in the Black Sea and their rational exploitation. General FisheriesCouncil <strong>of</strong> the Mediterranean Studies and Reviews 68, 1-178QQuadfasel D (2005). The Atlantic heat conveyor slows. Nature 438, 565-566Quero JC, Du Buit MH, Vayne JJ (1998). The records <strong>of</strong> tropical fishes and the warming <strong>of</strong> the European Atlanticwaters. Oceanol Acta 21, 345-351RReid PC, Edwards M, Beaugrand G, Skogen M, Stevens D (2003). Periodic changes in the zooplankton <strong>of</strong> the NorthSea during the twentieth century linked to oceanic inflow. Fish Oceanogr 12, 260-269Reise K, Dankers N, Essink K (2004). Introduced species. In: Essink K, Dettmann C, Farke H, Laursen K, Lüerßen G,Marencic H, Wiersinga W (Eds) Wadden Sea Quality Status Report 2004. Wadden Sea Ecosystem 19 – 2005,pp 155-161Roberts JM, Wheeler AJ, Freiwald A (2006). Reefs <strong>of</strong> the deep: the biology and geology <strong>of</strong> cold-water coralecosystems. Science 312, 543-547Root TL, Price JT, Hall KR, Schneider SH, Rosenzweig C, Pounds JA (2003). Fingerprints <strong>of</strong> global warming on wildanimals and plants. Nature 421, 57-60Romano JC, Bensoussan N, Younes WAN, Arlhac D (2000). Anomalie thermique dans les eaux du golfe deMarseille durand l’été 1999. Une explication partielle de la mortalite´ d’invertébrés fixés? C R Acad Sci Paris,Sci Vie 323, 415–427Rothrock DA, Zhang J (2005). Arctic Ocean sea-ice volume: What explains its recent depletion? J Geophys Res 110,C01002, doi:10.1029/2004JC00228267

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal DraftRusso A, Rabitti S, Bastianini M (2002). Decadal Climatic Anomalies in the Northern Adriatic Sea Inferred from aNew Oceanographic Data Set. PSZNI Mar Ecol 23, 340-351SSánchez I, Fernández C, Arrontes J (2005). Long-term changes in the structure <strong>of</strong> intertidal assemblages followinginvasion by Sargassum muticum (Phaeophyta). J Phycol 41, 942-949Sarmiento JL, Slater R, Barber R, Bopp L, Doney SC, Hirst AC, Kleypas J, Matear R, Mikolajewicz U, Monfray P,Soldatov V, Spall SA, Stouffer R (2004). Response <strong>of</strong> ocean ecosystems to climate warming. Glob BiogeochCycles 18, 3Schauer U, Muench RD, Rudels B, Timokhov L (1997). The impact <strong>of</strong> eastern Arctic Shelf Waters on the NansenBasin intermediate layers. J Geophys Res 102, 3371-3382Schindler DW (2006). Recent advances in the understanding and management <strong>of</strong> eutrophication. Limnol Oceanogr51, 356-363Shiganova TA (1998). Invasion <strong>of</strong> the Black Sea by the ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi and recent changes in pelagiccommunity structure. Fish Oceanogr 7, 305-310Shiganova TA, Musaeva EI, Bulgakova YV, Mirzoyan ZA, Martynyuk ML (2003). Invaders Ctenophores Mnemiopsisleidyi (A. Agassiz) and Beroe ovata Mayer 1912, and their influence on the pelagic ecosystem <strong>of</strong> northeasternBlack Sea, Oceanology (Engl. Trans.) 30, 180-190Shulman GE, Chashchin AK, Minyuk GS, Shchepkin VY et al. (1994). Longterm monitoring <strong>of</strong> the condition <strong>of</strong> BlackSea sprat. Doklady Rossiyskoy Akademii Nauk, v. 335, ¹ 1, pp 124 - 126Slagstad D, Wassmann P (1996). <strong>Climate</strong> change and carbon flux in the Barents Sea: 3-D simulations <strong>of</strong> icedistribution, primary production and vertical export <strong>of</strong> particulate organic carbon. Memoirs <strong>of</strong> the NationalInstitute for Polar Research, Special Issue 51, 119-141Southward AJ (1980). The western English Channel - an inconstant ecosystem? Nature 285, 361-366Southward AJ (1991). Forty years <strong>of</strong> changes in species composition and population-density <strong>of</strong> barnacles on a rockyshore near Plymouth. J Mar Biol Assoc UK 71, 495–523Southward AJ, Boalch GT, Maddock L (1988). Fluctuations in the herring and pilchard fisheries <strong>of</strong> Devon andCornwall linked to change in climate since the 16 th century. J Mar Biol Assoc UK 68, 423-445Southward AJ, Hawkins SJ, Burrows MT (1995). Seventy years’ observations <strong>of</strong> changes in distribution andabundance <strong>of</strong> zooplankton and intertidal organisms in the western English Channel in relation to rising seatemperature. J Therm Biol 20, 127-155Southward AJ, Langmead O, Hardman-Mountford NJ, Aiken J, Boalch GT, Dando PR, Genner MJ, Joint I, Kendall M,Halliday NC, Harris RP, Leaper R, Mieszkowska N, Pingree RD, Richardson AJ, Sims DW, Smith T, Walne AW,Hawkins S.J (2005). Long-term oceanographic and ecological research in the western English Channel. AdvMar Biol 47, 1-105.Stachowicz JJ, Terwin JR, Whitlatch RB, Osman RW (2002). Linking climate change and biological invasions: oceanwarming facilitates non-indigenous species invasion. Proc Nat Acad Sc USA 99, 15497-15500Stern, N (2006). Stern Review on the economics <strong>of</strong> climate change. HM Treasury, UKTTeng H, Washington WM, Meehl GA, Buja LE, Strand GW (2006). Twenty-first century Arctic climate change in theCCSM3 IPCC scenario simulations. <strong>Climate</strong> Dynamics 26, 601-616The Royal Society (2005). Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. Policy Document 12/0Thompson DJW, Wallace JM (1998). The Arctic Oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height andtemperature fields. Geophys Res Lett 25, 1297-1300Thompson DJW, Wallace JM (2001). Regional climate impacts <strong>of</strong> the northern hemisphere annular mode andassociated climate trends. Science 293, 85-89Toresen R, Østvedt LJ (2000). Variation in abundance <strong>of</strong> Norwegian spring-spawning herring (Clupea harengus,Clupeidae) throughout the 20th century and the influence <strong>of</strong> climatic fluctuations. Fish and Fisheries 1, 231-25668

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal DraftTurley CM, Bianchi A, Christaki U, Harris JRW, Psarra S, Ruddy G, Stutt ED, Tselepides A, van Wambeke (2000).Relationship between primary producers and bacteria in an oligotrophic sea: the Mediterranean andbiogeochemical implications. Mar Ecol Progr Ser 193, 11-18VValdés L, Lavín A (2002). Dynamics and Human Impact in the Bay <strong>of</strong> Biscay: An ecological perspective. In: ShermanK, Skjoldal HR (Eds) Large marine Ecosystems <strong>of</strong> the North Atlantic, Elsevier Science, pp 293-320Vilhjálmsson H (1997). Climatic variations and some examples <strong>of</strong> their effects on the marine ecology <strong>of</strong> Icelandic andGreenland waters, in particular during the present century. Rit Fiskideildar 40, 7-29WWalther GR, Post E, Convey P, Menzel A, Parmesan C, Beebe TJC, Fromentin JM, Hoegh-Guldberg O, Bairlein F(2002). Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature 416, 389-395Weijerman M, Lindeboom H, Zuur AF (2005). Regime shifts in marine ecosystems in the North Sea and WaddenSea. Mar Ecol Progr Ser 298, 21-39Wiltshire KH, Manly BFJ (2004). The warming trend at Helgoland Roads, North Sea: phytoplankton response,Helgoland mar Res 58, 269-273Woehrling D, Lefebvre A, Le Fevre-Lehorff G, Delesmont R (2005). Seasonal and longer term trends in seatemperature along the French North Sea coast 1975 to 2002. J Mar Biol Assoc UK 85, 39-48Woodgate RA, Aagaard K (2005). Monthly temperature, salinity and transport variability <strong>of</strong> the Bering Strait throughflow. Geophys Res Lett 32, L04601, doi:10.1029/2004GL021880World Meteorological Organization (2001). World Meteorological Organization/United Nations EnvironmentProgramme <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> 2001: The Scientific Basis69

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal DraftAPPENDICES70

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal DraftAPPENDIX 1: GLOSSARY OF TERMSAlbedo effectIncreased reflectivity <strong>of</strong> the ground surface following a change <strong>of</strong> it characteristics or cover therebychanging the heat balance <strong>of</strong> the surface-atmosphere system.Beaufort GyreBeaufort gyre is a circulation system swirling the waters <strong>of</strong> the Arcitc basin and turning the ice cap withit.Greenhouse GasesGreenhouse gases are components <strong>of</strong> the atmosphere that contribute to the greenhouse effect, theyinclude water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and ozoneMilankovitch cyclesThe variation <strong>of</strong> the Earth's exposure to the sun's rays, or insolation, that results from variations in theorbit <strong>of</strong> the Earth and the tilt <strong>of</strong> its axis, and that might affect climate, sea level and sedimentation (timeperiod in the order <strong>of</strong> thousands years).Transpolar Drift (or Trans Arctic Drift)Transpolar Drift is a circulation system carrying water and ice from Siberia across the pole and down tothe east coast <strong>of</strong> Greenland.71

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal DraftAPPENDIX 2: LIST OF ACRONYMSACIAAOCPREAWRENSOEUGCMGMESIPCCIPCIPYIUCNJNCCMOCNACNAMNAONHTSSTTHCWFDArctic <strong>Climate</strong> Imapct AssessmentArctic OscillationContinuous Plankton RecorderEast Atlantic-West RussiaEl Niño-Southern OscillationEuropean UnionGlobal Circulation ModelGlobal Monitoring for Environment and SecurityIntergovernmental Panel on <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong>Iberian Polward CurrentInternational Polar YearInternational Union for the Conservation <strong>of</strong> Nature and Natural ResourcesJoint Nature Conservation CouncilMeridional Overturning CirculationNorth Atlantic CurrentNorthern Hemisphere Annual ModeNorth Atlantic OscillationNorthern Hemisphere TemperatureSea Surface TemperatureThermohaline CirculationWater Framework Directive72

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal DraftAPPENDIX 3: GLOSSARY OF LARGE-SCALE MONITORING PROGRAMMESAND RESEARCH ACTIVITIES RELATED TO CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ONTHE EUROPEAN MARINE AND COASTAL ENVIRONMENTCIESM: The Mediterranean ScienceCommission integrates a broad spectrum <strong>of</strong>marine disciplines, encompassing geophysical,chemical and biological processes,along with high-resolution mapping <strong>of</strong> the seabottom.Today, changes are occurring at a fast,unprecedented pace in the Mediterranean Sea.CIESM tracks and analyses these changes atthe scale <strong>of</strong> the whole Basin, from the impact <strong>of</strong>global warming on sea level and water massesto changes in marine biodiversity; frommorphological changes in coastlines to theaccumulation <strong>of</strong> trace metals in marine foodchains (www.ciesm.org).CIRCLE: <strong>Climate</strong> change is increasingly seenas one <strong>of</strong> the greatest issues facing the worldin the 21st century, and Europe is taking aleading role in responding to its challenges.Whatever the success <strong>of</strong> mitigating climatechange may be, certain impacts areunavoidable and European countries will needto adapt to those impacts driven by certainvulnerabilities and exposures in the regions <strong>of</strong>Europe. Their adaptation response must beinformed by a coherent body <strong>of</strong> research and itis the prime objective <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> ImpactResearch Coordination for a Larger Europe tocontribute to such efforts by aligning nationalresearch programmes. This process will be astrong support for the overall goal:Implementing a European Research Area(ERA) for the field <strong>of</strong> climate change(www.circle-era.net).CLIVAR: The specific objective <strong>of</strong> the <strong>Climate</strong>Variability and Predictability researchprogramme are i) to describe and understandthe physical processes responsible for climatevariability and predictability at different timescales,through the collection and analysis <strong>of</strong>observations and the development andapplication <strong>of</strong> models <strong>of</strong> the coupled climatesystem, ii) to extend the record <strong>of</strong> climatevariability over the time-scales <strong>of</strong> interestthrough the assembly <strong>of</strong> quality-controlledpaleoclimatic and instrumental data sets, iii) toextend the range and accuracy <strong>of</strong> seasonal tointerannual climate prediction through thedevelopment <strong>of</strong> global coupled predictivemodels, and iv) to understand and predict theresponse <strong>of</strong> the climate system to increases <strong>of</strong>radiatively active gases and aerosols(www.clivar.org).DEDUCE: Spatial analysis <strong>of</strong> particular habitatsproject using GIS (e.g. Corine Coastal Erosion)that may lead to the development <strong>of</strong> otherindicators. This work will contribute to anassessment <strong>of</strong> the state <strong>of</strong> European Coaststhat is planned to be published by the EEA in2006 and will be taken forward at a Europeanscale (www.eurosion.org).DIVERSITAS: An international programme <strong>of</strong>biodiversity science to promote an integrativebiodiversity science, linking biological,ecological and social disciplines in an effort toproduce socially relevant new knowledge; andprovide the scientific basis for the conservationand sustainable use <strong>of</strong> biodiversity.DIVERSITAS achieves these goals bysynthesizing existing scientific knowledge,identifying gaps and emerging issues, andpromoting new research initiatives, while alsobuilding bridges across countries anddisciplines. The Programme also investigatespolicy implications <strong>of</strong> biodiversity science, andcommunicates these to policy fora, includinginternational conventions (www.diversitasinternational.org).EEA: The European Environment Agency aimsto support sustainable development and to helpachieve significant and measurableimprovement in Europe's environment throughthe provision <strong>of</strong> timely, targeted, relevant andreliable information to policy making agentsand the public. The EEA has developed a set<strong>of</strong> indicators with regard to climate change(greenhouse gasses and temperature), and forthe marine environment (nutrients andchlorophyll) (www.eea.europa.eu).ERA-NET: The objective <strong>of</strong> the ERA-NETscheme (funded by the European Union SixthFramework Programme – FP6) is to step upthe cooperation and coordination <strong>of</strong> researchactivities carried out at national or regional levelin the Member States and Associated Statesthrough the networking <strong>of</strong> research activitiesconducted at national or regional level, and themutual opening <strong>of</strong> national and regionalresearchprogrammes(cordis.europa.eu/coordination/era-net.htm).EuroBIS: Within the MarBEF network, theEuropean Ocean Biogeographic InformationSystem is the European regional node <strong>of</strong> theOcean Biogeographic Information System is73

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal Draftdeveloped. This distributed system to presentbiogeographic information will integrateindividual datasets on marine organisms intoone large consolidated database, and cantherefore provide a better understanding <strong>of</strong>long-term, large-scale patterns in Europeanmarinewaters(www.marbef.org/data/eurobis.php).with state-<strong>of</strong>-the art models <strong>of</strong> global oceancirculation. In the past few years, a suite <strong>of</strong>GODAE systems have been developed toproduce global and basin-scale ocean analysisand short-term forecasts. GODAE products arealso being used for ecosystem applications andto provide lateral open boundary conditions forregional and coastal systems(www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/ocean/GODAE).EuroCoML: The European Census <strong>of</strong> MarineLife is a regional implementation committee <strong>of</strong>the Census <strong>of</strong> Marine Life, a growing globalnetwork <strong>of</strong> researchers in more than 70 nationsengaged in a 10-year initiative to assess andexplain the diversity, distribution, andabundance <strong>of</strong> marine life in the oceans - past,present, and future (www.eurocoml.org).GCOS: the Global <strong>Climate</strong> Observing Systemaims to ensure that the observations andinformation needed to address climate-relatedissues are obtained and made available to allpotential users. GCOS stimulates, encourages,coordinates and otherwise facilitates the taking<strong>of</strong> the needed observations by national orinternational organizations in support <strong>of</strong> theirown requirements as well as <strong>of</strong> common goals.It provides an operational framework forintegrating, and enhancing as needed,observational systems <strong>of</strong> participating countriesand organizations into a comprehensivesystem focussed on the requirements forclimate issues (www.wmo.ch/web/gcos).GLOBEC: Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamicswas initiated by SCOR and the IOC <strong>of</strong>UNESCO in 1991, to understand how globalchange will affect the abundance, diversity andproductivity <strong>of</strong> marine populations constituting amajor component <strong>of</strong> oceanic ecosystems. Theaim <strong>of</strong> GLOBEC is to advance ourunderstanding <strong>of</strong> the structure and functioning<strong>of</strong> the global ocean ecosystem, its majorsubsystems, and its response to physicalforcing so that a capability can be developed t<strong>of</strong>orecast the responses <strong>of</strong> the marineecosystem to global change (www.globec.org).GMES: The Global Monitoring for Environmentand Security represents a concerted effort tobring data and information providers togetherwith users, so they can better understand eachother and agree on how to make environmentaland security-related information available to thepeople who need it (www.gmes.info).GODAE: Global Ocean Data AssimilationExperiment is an international program thataims to advance ocean data assimilation bysynthesizing satellite and in-situ observations(e.g. from satellite altimeters and ARGO floats)GOOS: The Global Ocean Observing Systemis global system for sustained observations,modelling and analysis <strong>of</strong> marine and oceanvariables to support operational ocean servicesworldwide observations <strong>of</strong> the ocean,comprising the oceanographic component <strong>of</strong>the Global Earth Observing System <strong>of</strong> Systems(GEOSS). GOOS provides descriptions <strong>of</strong> thepresent state <strong>of</strong> the oceans, including livingresources; continuous forecasts <strong>of</strong> the futureconditions <strong>of</strong> the sea, and basic information forforecasts <strong>of</strong> climate change (www.iocgoos.org).HELCOM: The Helsinki Commission works toprotect the marine environment <strong>of</strong> the BalticSea from all sources <strong>of</strong> pollution throughintergovernmental co-operation betweenDenmark, Estonia, the European Community,Finland, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland,Russia and Sweden. They provide informationabout i) the state <strong>of</strong> trends in the marineenvironment, ii) the efficiency <strong>of</strong> measures toprotect it, and iii) common initiatives andpositions which can form the basis for decisionmakingin other international fora(www.helcom.fi).HERMES: Funded by the European UnionSixth Framework Programme – FP6, HotspotEcosystem Research on the Margins <strong>of</strong> theEuropean Seas brings together expertise inbiodiversity, geology, sedimentology, physicaloceanography, microbiology andbiogeochemistry so that the genericrelationship between biodiversity andecosystem functioning can be understood.Study sites extend from the Arctic to the BlackSea and include biodiversity hotspots such ascold seeps, cold-water coral mounds and reefs,canyons and anoxic environments, andcommunities found on open slopes. Theseimportant systems require urgent studybecause <strong>of</strong> their possible biological fragility,unique genetic resources, global relevance tocarbon cycling and susceptibility to globalchange and human impact (www.euhermes.net).ICES: The International Council for Exploration<strong>of</strong> the Sea is an intergovernmental organisationthat deals with fishing and fishing assessments74

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal Draftin the North Atlantic. This includes adjacentseas such as the Baltic Sea and North Sea.Scientists working through ICES gatherinformation about the marine ecosystem. Aswell as filling gaps in existing knowledge, thisinformation is also developed into unbiased,non-political advice, and then used by the 19member countries, which fund and supportICES, to help them manage the North AtlanticOcean and adjacent seas (www.ices.dk).provide an integrated service <strong>of</strong> global andregional ocean monitoring and forecasting tointermediate users and policy makers insupport <strong>of</strong> safe and efficient <strong>of</strong>fshore activities,environmental management, security, andsustainable use <strong>of</strong> marine resources. Thesystem to be developed will be a keycomponent <strong>of</strong> the Ocean and Marine serviceselement <strong>of</strong> GMES (www.mersea.eu.org).IGBP: International Geosphere-BiosphereProgramme to provide scientific knowledge toimprove the sustainability <strong>of</strong> the living Earth.IGBP studies the interactions betweenbiological, chemical and physical processesand human systems IGBP collaborates withother programmes to develop and impart theunderstanding necessary to respond to globalchange (www.igbp.kva.se).MGE: Marine Genomics Europe is a Network<strong>of</strong> Excellence project funded by the EuropeanUnion Sixth Framework Programme (FP6)devoted to the development, utilization andspreading <strong>of</strong> high-throughput approaches forthe investigation <strong>of</strong> the biology <strong>of</strong> marineorganisms. Moreover, MGE will establishdatabases <strong>of</strong> marine resources through largescalebiodiversity studies (www.marinegenomics-europe.org).IHDP: The International Human DimensionsProgramme on Global Environmental <strong>Change</strong>is an international, interdisciplinary, nongovernmentalscience programme dedicated topromoting, catalyzing and coordinatingresearch on the human dimensions <strong>of</strong> globalenvironmental change. IHDP takes a socialscience perspective on global change and itworks at the interface between science andpractical applications (www.ihdp.uni-bonn.de).IMBER: The Integrated MarineBiogeochemistry and Ecosystem Researchproject was initiated by the IGBP/SCOR OceanFutures Planning Committee in 2001 to identifythe most important science issues related tobiological and chemical aspects <strong>of</strong> the ocean’srole in global change and effects <strong>of</strong> globalchange on the ocean, with emphasis onimportant issues that are not majorcomponents <strong>of</strong> existing international projects(www.imber.info).MedCLIVAR: A programme which aims tocoordinate and promote research on theMediterranean climate. The main goals includereconstruction <strong>of</strong> past evolution, description <strong>of</strong>patterns and mechanisms characterizingspace-time variability, and identification <strong>of</strong> theforcing responsible for the observed changes.Emphasis is on identification <strong>of</strong> trends inobservational records as well as on climatepredictions under future emission scenarios.The study <strong>of</strong> the occurrence <strong>of</strong> extreme eventsand <strong>of</strong> climate change impacts is also includedinMedCLIVAR(clima.casaccia.enea.it/medclivar).MERSEA: The strategic objective <strong>of</strong> MarineEnvironment and Security for the EuropeanArea project (funded by the European UnionFifth Framework Programme – FP5) is toOSPAR: The Convention for the Protection <strong>of</strong>the Marine Environment <strong>of</strong> the North-EastAtlantic. In 2000, the OSPAR Commissionpublished the first comprehensive QualityStatus Report on the quality <strong>of</strong> the marineenvironment <strong>of</strong> the North-East Atlantic. Thiswas supported by five reports on the differentparts <strong>of</strong> the OSPAR maritime area. In 2003, theMinisterial Meeting <strong>of</strong> the Commission adopteda new Strategy for the Joint Assessment andMonitoring Programme (JAMP). This providesfor the work to support and produce a series <strong>of</strong>thematic assessments, leading to a furthercomprehensive assessment in 2010(www.ospar.org).SCOPE: Scientific Committee on Problems <strong>of</strong>the Environment is an interdisciplinary body <strong>of</strong>natural and social science expertise focused onglobal environmental issues, operating at theinterface between scientific and decisionmakinginstances, and a worldwide network <strong>of</strong>scientists and scientific institutions developingsyntheses and reviews <strong>of</strong> scientific knowledgeon current or potential environmental issues(www.icsu-scope.org).SCOR: Scientific Committee on OceanicResearch is the leading non-governmentalorganization for the promotion and coordination<strong>of</strong> international oceanographic activities. SCORscience activities focus on promotinginternational cooperation in planning andconducting oceanographic research, andsolving methodological and conceptualproblems that hinder research(www.jhu.edu/~scor).WCRP: The World <strong>Climate</strong> ResearchProgramme objectives are to develop the75

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal Draftfundamental scientific understanding <strong>of</strong> thephysical climate system and climate processesneeded to determine to what extent climate canbe predicted and the extent <strong>of</strong> human influenceon climate. The programme encompassesstudies <strong>of</strong> the global atmosphere, oceans, seaand land ice, and the land surface, whichtogether constitute the Earth's physical climatesystem. WCRP studies are specifically directedto provide scientifically founded quantitativeanswers to the questions being raised onclimate and the range <strong>of</strong> natural climatevariability, as well as to establish the basis forpredictions <strong>of</strong> global and regional climaticvariations and <strong>of</strong> changes in the frequency andseverity <strong>of</strong> extreme events(www.wmo.ch/web/wcrp).76

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal DraftAPPENDIX 4: EXTRACT FROM NAVIGATING THE FUTURE III ON CLIMATECHANGEThe following text is extracted from Navigating the Future2004.III, the latest position paper from the Marine Board <strong>of</strong> theEuropean Science Foundation (MB-ESF). It outlines the mostimportant marine thematic research priorities for Europe,taking into account the priorities not only for FP7, but also theobjectives <strong>of</strong> national research programmes, the EuropeanMarine Environment Strategy and the Galway DeclarationFor general background information, the section <strong>of</strong> Navigating the Future IIIdealing with ocean-climate interactions and feedback has been extracted and slightlyedited to be added to this report.Navigating the Future III can be downloaded on the Marine Board website(www.esf.org/marineboard), paper copies are available upon request to theMarine Board secretariat.77

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal DraftPart 4- Ocean climate interactions and feedback<strong>Climate</strong> change4.1 The ocean is a crucial component <strong>of</strong> theEarth’s climate system. It is the driver <strong>of</strong>many important climate processes on arange <strong>of</strong> time scales. Although there canbe no certainty regarding the precisenature and rates <strong>of</strong> change in the marineenvironment due to alterations in climate,in the absence <strong>of</strong> policies and measures toprepare for these changes, even the moremoderate <strong>of</strong> the predicted scenariosindicate major social and economicimpacts. The 2001 Report <strong>of</strong> theIntergovernmental Panel on <strong>Climate</strong><strong>Change</strong> states that “global climate changewill affect the physical, biological andbiogeochemical characteristics <strong>of</strong> theoceans and coasts, modifying theirecological structure, their functions and thegoods and services that the oceansprovide”. The Stern Review on theEconomics <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> (2006Report to the UK Government) furtherreiterates this prediction, stating thatclimate change will have serious impactson economic growth and development,and that the failure to address globalwarming will cost the global economy 3.68trillion pounds sterling (5,500 billion euros)by 2050, triggering a catastrophicrecession, unless it is tackled within adecade. Thus, it is estimated that theeffects <strong>of</strong> climate change would cost theworld between 5% and 20% <strong>of</strong> GDP.Increasing dialogue between scientists andpolicy makers is necessary to allowassessment <strong>of</strong> whether there is sufficientsound scientific evidence on which to basenew policies. Specialist workshops arerequired to address not only theenvironmental challenges that thescientists and policy makers face, but alsothe inevitable socio-economicrepercussions associated with risingtemperatures. To support the development<strong>of</strong> knowledge-based policies, there is arequirement for validated methods to turndata into information, in the form <strong>of</strong>integrated assessments and indicators,and for improved methods to assimilatedata into climate models. This wouldimprove reanalysis <strong>of</strong> climate variability inclimate evolution over past decades. Theglobal nature and scale <strong>of</strong> theenvironmental and economic impacts<strong>of</strong> climate change emphasise the needfor European research programmes tocoordinate and integrate with theclimate component <strong>of</strong> internationalresearch programmes, includingCLIVAR, GLOBEC and IMBER.4.2 Palaeoclimate records provide animportant tool for analysing the response<strong>of</strong> the climate system to internal andexternal forcing (e.g. greenhouse gases,volcanic activity and solar energy), and forunderstanding the physical, chemical andbiological processes responsible for thechanges. Gathering the vast amount <strong>of</strong>palaeoclimate records into databasesand their spatial and temporal analysisis necessary. In order to place the presentstatus <strong>of</strong> the Earth’s climate within anhistoric perspective <strong>of</strong> climate variability,the ability to develop numerical models <strong>of</strong>past climatic events requires furtherimprovement and refinement. Thecombined use <strong>of</strong> palaeoclimate data andpalaeoclimate models with fine spatial andtemporal resolution will facilitate therecreation <strong>of</strong> past ocean climate scenarios,which will advance the understanding <strong>of</strong>the mechanisms <strong>of</strong> climate change.Research is required to improve thetemporal resolution in thereconstruction <strong>of</strong> climate history <strong>of</strong> theocean in scales from tens to hundreds<strong>of</strong> years. Continuous development <strong>of</strong>geochemical proxies is required forreconstruction <strong>of</strong> past surface CO 2content, temperature, salinity, pHvalues and nutrients.4.3 One <strong>of</strong> the potential effects <strong>of</strong> climatechange is the change in intensity,frequency and location <strong>of</strong> extreme events,such as storms, tidal surges and extremewave heights. Improved definition <strong>of</strong>extreme events, their statisticalanalysis, definition <strong>of</strong> proxies for pastevents, identification <strong>of</strong> processes atplay in their generation, and theidentification <strong>of</strong> their variability andtrends, all need to be developed.Observing networks provide crucialcontributions to monitoring andforecasting extreme events, and requirefurther development.4.4 As well as the development <strong>of</strong> improvedsimulation models <strong>of</strong> climate variability andits effects, there is a requirement for thedevelopment <strong>of</strong> long-term capabilities forclimate observation. Detecting the actualphenomena, understanding in moredetail the processes at play, such asthe Pacific El Niño Southern Oscillation(ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) and their potential change infrequency and intensity, is critical. Tosupport climate change research, newobservational and measurementsensors and systems need to be78

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal Draftdesigned, including sensors for air-seainteractions <strong>of</strong> specific substances.With observation networks in place, therewill be a requirement for new methods toassimilate data into Atlantic andMediterranean circulation and climateimpact models.4.5 There is a need to improve the use <strong>of</strong>existing data on physical, chemical andbiological status in the field <strong>of</strong> operationaloceanography modelling tools. To supportdevelopment <strong>of</strong> climate change models,an open data policy is needed,facilitating timely and improved accessto data. Data access should include nearreal-time, high frequency sea level datafrom tide gauges, satellite missions, and insitu observation systems, includingpictures <strong>of</strong> changes in planktonassemblage compositions and oceancolour data. Efforts in data archaeology, toretrieve and make accessible historical sealevel records, should also be supported.4.6 The impacts <strong>of</strong> climate change onfunctional biodiversity are unknown.Developing the capability to predict theresponse and feedbacks <strong>of</strong> marine biota toclimate change is required. Research isneeded to assess how marine ecosystems’structure (e.g. foodwebs, population sizeand distribution) and functioning (e.g.biomass, production, decomposition) willchange under current predictions <strong>of</strong>climate change. Experimental andnumerical studies using climatesimulatingmesocosms are required tounravel the basic biogeochemical linksand responses <strong>of</strong> climate-criticalplankton species (e.g. diatoms,coccolithophorids, N 2 fixers, DMSproducers, bacteria, viruses, archaea)to physical and chemical drivers <strong>of</strong>climate change (e.g. temperature, pH,CO 2 , solar radiation) and the associatedbiogeographic consequences.Ocean-atmosphere coupling and the ocean thermohaline circulation4.7 The ocean circulation in the North Atlanticplays a fundamental role in the coupledocean-atmosphere system which results inthe present temperate climate <strong>of</strong> WesternEurope. The Atlantic ThermohalineCirculation (THC), or North Atlantic Current(one <strong>of</strong> the strongest ocean currents in theworld), refers to a key regional heat enginemechanism partly responsible for allowingsome areas <strong>of</strong> Europe to experience aclimate 10°C higher than areas at similarlatitudes. There are indications that thissystem can change dramatically on a timescale <strong>of</strong> one to two decades, with farreachingconsequences. Observations <strong>of</strong>decadal changes in the THC, and <strong>of</strong> thesubsurface heat fluxes in the NorthAtlantic, have been described. Models andrecent observations suggest that the THCmay be weakening in response togreenhouse forcing. It has already beenshown that the circulation <strong>of</strong> the NorthAtlantic Current has slowed by 30% overthe last 12 years, and that part <strong>of</strong> thiscurrent came to a 10 day halt duringNovember 2004, the most abrupt changeon record. Prototype observationalexperiments should be transformedinto multidisciplinary long-termobservational networks to monitor theevolving dynamics <strong>of</strong> the system.Research effort is required to focus onkey Arctic and sub-Arctic deep waterformations, gateways and pathways forthe out-flows <strong>of</strong> cold dense water, andreturn flows <strong>of</strong> warm surface currentsin the world ocean.4.8 Over the last two decades climate modelshave predicted that the impact <strong>of</strong> globalwarming caused by elevated atmosphericCO 2 would be stronger and faster in theArctic. <strong>Climate</strong> simulation models currentlyshow that with a doubling <strong>of</strong> atmosphericCO 2 (predicted to happen by 2080) Arcticsea-ice could disappear in the summermonths. During the winter months, thereduction in sea-ice may be up to 20%,resulting in the opening <strong>of</strong> the nowseasonally ice-covered Barents Sea toshipping. <strong>Climate</strong> change will thus inducedramatic changes to the economy <strong>of</strong> theareas bordering on regional seas,impacting on local communities, fishingpractices, maritime transport and oilexploitation. Efforts should be directedtowards research on impacts <strong>of</strong> climatechange on regional seas (e.g. the Artic,Nordic, Baltic and the MediterraneanSeas) as these are areas where theeffects <strong>of</strong> climate change would impactmost immediately on Europe. Globalmodels <strong>of</strong> ocean-climate coupling andthe THC should be downscaled toincorporate: i) flux-critical processes <strong>of</strong>subduction, convection, overflows andboundary currents; ii) teleconnectionsbetween the Pacific El Niño and theNAO, and between the NAO-IO (NorthAtlantic Oscillation - Indian Ocean)dipole and Mediterranean climate; andiii) greenhouse forcing: the responses<strong>of</strong> European seas, and its local andregional impacts. As the MediterraneanSea is a region in between the Atlantic andthe Indian climate regions, capturing thespecific modes <strong>of</strong> climate variability in thisregion is necessary. The impact <strong>of</strong> outflow<strong>of</strong> Mediterranean waters into the Atlantic79

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal Draftand their behaviour in the Atlantic Iberianregion requires particular attention.4.9 The ARGO experiment, with its in situglobal array <strong>of</strong> pr<strong>of</strong>iling floats recordingoceanographic data, demonstrates thefeasibility <strong>of</strong> providing a world-scale nearreal-time tri-dimensional observation <strong>of</strong>ocean hydrographic parameters. ThroughEURO-ARGO Europe should activelycontribute to the global ARGOexperiment to provide hydrographicobservations in the long term, both foroperational oceanography and formonitoring climate change. Thedevelopment <strong>of</strong> more cost-effectivepr<strong>of</strong>ilers would help to extend the ARGOarray <strong>of</strong> pr<strong>of</strong>iling floats and to implementthe ARGO system.Ocean biogeochemical impacts and feedbacks in a greenhouse ocean4.10 Estimates <strong>of</strong> current absorption <strong>of</strong>anthropogenic CO 2 into the ocean arestill uncertain and have recently been reevaluated;the ocean is the dominantsink for anthropogenic CO 2 , as it hastaken up 50% <strong>of</strong> anthropogenic CO 2 .Greenhouse scenarios predict a globallywarmer, more stratified and more acidicupper-ocean that could significantlyreduce both convective andbiogeochemical export sinks <strong>of</strong>atmospheric CO 2 into the deep ocean.This would accelerate accumulation <strong>of</strong>CO 2 in the atmosphere, with anassociated risk <strong>of</strong> acceleratedgreenhouse warming. Increasing CO 2levels are leading to a decline inseawater pH to levels that have notexisted in at least 20 million years, sothe oceans are becoming increasinglyacidic. Ocean acidification not onlychanges the distribution <strong>of</strong> dissolvedcarbon species but also impacts onplankton, which could affect carbonuptake by primary production. Planktonabsorb CO 2 from the atmosphere, and inso doing help to counter global warming.With a decrease in plankton diversityand population density, the oceans willabsorb less CO 2 from the Earth’satmosphere. Research to pr<strong>of</strong>ile status<strong>of</strong> phytoplankton assemblages isrequired. To reliably predict future CO 2levels, research is necessary t<strong>of</strong>urther elucidate these mechanisms,and to estimate absorption limits andoceanic budgets for anthropogenicCO 2 under greenhouse scenarios.4.11 The United States Japan, UK and Norwayare developing experiments to assesswhether deep ocean disposal <strong>of</strong>liquefied CO 2 (carbon sequestration) andiron fertilisation, can be used for largescale removal <strong>of</strong> CO 2 into the deepocean. Europe should conductindependent studies and evaluations,so that there can be an objectivedebate on the environmentalfeasibility, usefulness, ethics andimpacts <strong>of</strong> ocean carbonsequestration. Interactions betweendecision makers, scientists,environmental NGOs and the publicshould be promoted to facilitate thedevelopment <strong>of</strong> the most appropriateapproaches towards such sensitiveissues.Ventilation <strong>of</strong> marine biogases and fertilisation feedbacks4.12 Research is needed on current air-seafluxes <strong>of</strong> climatically critical biogases(CO 2 , DMS, N 2 O, CH 4 ), particularly ontheir regional and seasonal variability, toenable a global assessment <strong>of</strong> their rolein climate change. The biogenicsources, distributions and pathwaysresponsible for production,transformation and flux <strong>of</strong> climaticallyreactive marine biogas compoundsshould be investigated and modelledunder present and future climateconditions. This effort should bedeveloped as a contribution to theSOLAS international programme.4.13 There is a requirement to furtherdevelop coupled physicalbiogeochemical ocean climate modelsthat incorporate carbon speciationand nutrient dynamics. This wouldallow prediction <strong>of</strong> changes andfeedbacks in global and regional oceanproductivity under various greenhousescenarios. In particular, in view <strong>of</strong> theimportance <strong>of</strong> medium- and small-scalephenomena for primary productivity, it isnecessary to assess how their inclusionin climate models could be made.4.14 Single-celled marine organisms(archaea, bacteria, phytoplankton, etc.)are abundant, diverse and productiveand are the principal drivers <strong>of</strong> marineand global biogeochemistry. Supportshould be directed towards adaptingbiogeochemical gene probes, coupledwith phylogenetic probes, to enablethe application <strong>of</strong> high-throughputbioanalytic technologies (e.g.analytical flow cytometry,microarrays) for use onboard ship80

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal Draftduring large-scale oceanographicexpeditions for exploration <strong>of</strong>microbial biodiversity, andassessment <strong>of</strong> food web dynamicsand biogeochemical feedbacks indiverse oceanic environments.81

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal DraftAPPENDIX 5. MEMBERS OF THE WORKING GROUPChairCatharina J.M. Philippart (chair)Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, P.O. Box 59, 1790 AB Den Burg, The NetherlandsT: +31 222 369 563, F: +31 222 319 674, E: katja@nioz.nlMembers:Ricardo AnadónDep. de Biología de Organismos y Sistemas, Universidad de Oviedo, 33071 Oviedo, SpainT: + 34 985104790, E: +34 985104777, E: ranadon@uniovi.esRoberto DanovaroDipartimento di Scienze del Mare, via Brecce Bianche – 60100, Ancona, ItalyT: + 39 71 220 4654, E: danovaro@univpm.itJoachim W. DippnerBaltic Sea Research Institute Warnemünde, Seestrasse 15, D-18119 Rostock, GermanyT: +49 381 5197 229, F: +49 381 5197 114, E: joachim.dippner@io-warnemuende.deKenneth F. DrinkwaterInstitute <strong>of</strong> Marine Research, P.O. Box 1870 Nordnes, N-5817 Bergen, NorwayT: +47 55 23 69 90, E: ken.drinkwater@imr.noStephen J. HawkinsMarine Biological Association <strong>of</strong> the UK, Citadel Hill, Plymouth, PL1 2PB, UKT: +44 01752 633331, F: +44 1752 633 102, E: sjha@mba.ac.ukGe<strong>of</strong>frey O’SullivanMarine Institute, 80 Harcourt Street, Dublin 2, IrelandT: +353 1 4766500, F: +353 1 4784988, E: ge<strong>of</strong>frey.osullivan@marine.ieTemel OguzInstitute <strong>of</strong> Marine Sciences, P.O. Box 28, 33731 Erdemli, Icel, TurkeyT: +90 324 521 2406, F: +90 324 521 2327, E: oguz@ims.metu.edu.trPhilip C. ReidSAHFOS, The Laboratory, Citadel Hill, Plymouth PL1 2PB, UKT: +44 1752 633288 / 281, F: +44 1752 600015, E: pcre@sahfos.ac.uk82

Marine Board – European Science FoundationImpact <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on European Coastal and Marine EnvironmentFinal DraftMarine Board – ESF Member OrganisationsLOGOS1, quai Lezay-MarnésiaBP 9001567080 Strasbourg Cedex FranceTel : +33(0)3 88 76 71 00Fax : +33(0)3 88 25 19 54