secondary data review on the food security situation in the kyrgyz ...

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ooooooRugged geography, which separates the country into two economic regions and twomarkets that lack integration. The 2 economic centres of the country, the Chui valleyin the north and Ferghana valley in the south, are separated by mountains;Dependence on neighbouring countries for reaching internal and external markets.The Kyrgyz Republic’s road and railway systems in the north are part of thetransportation networks of Kazakhstan, and in the south they are part of the networksof Uzbekistan.Restrictions on cross-border trade and road checks internally (bribes).Poor road conditions.High fuel costs.Lack of information on market demands for commodities. Market segmentation and inefficiencies result in:o High marketing margins and important differences between farm-gate prices andmarket prices (low revenues for the producer, and high prices for the consumer);o High variation in prices across oblasts for similar commodities, depending on theirproximity to external markets;o Exclusion of many producers from access to the market and from gains from higherprices;o Poor crop diversification, as producers are reluctant to engage into commercial cropswithout guarantee of the market. The WFP mission analyzed price <strong>data</strong> 28 for the period January 2007-June 2008 for wheatflour, vegetable oil, sugar, sheep meat, diesel and wage labour from 3 markets: Bishkek,Naryn and Osh. Results suggest that:o except for sugar, prices of all commodities have increased in the 3 markets;o wage labour, vegetable oil and sheep meat seem to have similar rates of increase inboth Bishkek and Naryn;o there were strong correlations between the prices of vegetable oil and diesel inBishkek, and between vegetable oil and wage labour in Naryn and Osh, and betweenthe prices of sheep meat and diesel in Bishkek and Naryn. There seems to be a high level of market integration for all commodities except sugar andwage labour. More specifically:o vegetable oil prices are closely related in Bishkek and Naryn;o diesel prices are closely related in Naryn and Osh. Over the previous 19 months:o wheat flour prices were close in the 3 markets, which appeared fully integrated;o sugar prices were also close in the 3 markets, but they were not integrated;o vegetable oil was more expensive in Naryn than in Bishkek and Osh;o sheep meat was more expensive in Bishkek than in Naryn and Osh, with the latter2 fully integrated;o diesel prices were close in the 3 markets, with Naryn and Osh fully integrated;o wage labour rates were lower in Naryn than in Bishkek and Osh.Average prices per unit (June 2008)Bishkek Naryn OshWheat flour 0.63 US$/kg 0.59 US$/kg 0.55 US$/kgSugar 0.79 US$/kg 0.83 US$/kg 0.86 US$/kgVegetable oil 1.85 US$/lit 1.98 US$/lit 1.75 US$/litSheep meat 5.16 US$/kg 4.38 US$/kg 4.37 US$/kgDiesel 0.73 US$/lit 0.70 US$/lit 0.70 US/litWage labour 5.54 US$/day 3.23 US$/day 5.53 US$/dayRegional Market Survey for the Central Asia Region - WFP, Draft, September 200828 Price <strong>data</strong> were obtained from KAMIS, an independent agency established with DFID ‘Know HowFund’ in the late 1990s, and the National Statistic Committee (Regional Market Survey for the CentralAsia Region”, WFP, Draft, September 2008)15
VI - Economic situation and poverty 29Macro-economy Kyrgyzstan is a ‘low income country’ considered to be the 2 nd poorest ex-Soviet republicafter Tajikistan. The northern part of the country borders onto the middle income country of Kazakhstanwhere the economy is booming due to oil. The southern part of the country is morepopulous and agrarian, and it borders onto the lower income – and largely unreformed –economies of Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. The initial years (1992-95) of transition from the Soviet central system witnessed a dramaticdecline of the economy. Thereafter, steady GDP growth was recorded, linked to the exportof gold and remittances from migrants. Social upheavals in 2005-06 caused growth to falter.In 2007 economic growth picked up and GDP real growth was posted at 8.2%. Growth ratesfor 2008 are so far slightly slower than projected (around 7%). In 2007, GDP per capita wasestimated at US$710.2003 2004 2005 2006 2007Real GDPgrowth7% 7% -0.2% 3.1% 8.2%Kyrgyzstan Country Report August 2008 - The Economist Intelligence Unit In 2007, agriculture contributed to 34% of GDP, services 47% and industry 19%. Thisreflects the industrial decline that followed the break-up of the former Soviet Union (FSU).Kyrgyzstan is now one of the least industrialized countries of the FSU. It also reflects thenegligible contribution of the oil and gas sector to overall production, unlike in most otherCentral Asian states. Real growth rates of the main sectors of the economy in 2006-07 were: 4.7% for industry,1.5% for agriculture, 20.2% for construction and 11.7% for services. Small and medium-size enterprises contribute to almost half of GDP and about 13% ofemployment (excluding farms) 30 . Estimated Growth National Income (GNI) per capita 31 was US$550 in 2007, close to thelevels of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, but much lower than Kazakhstan (more than US$3,000). The implementation of the reform agenda to expedite the transition from a centrally plannedeconomy to a more market based one has yet to be completed thus stymieing efforts topursue policies that improve the welfare of the population and encourage business activityand competition 32 . There are important regional economic disparities between economically more dynamicregions, such as the capital Bishkek and its surroundings (e.g. Chui oblast) in the north ofthe country, and remote regions mainly in the south and in the centre. Manufacturing isconcentrated mainly in Bishkek and the northern Chui oblast, with pockets in the few otherurban areas, notably Osh. Rural areas have often relapsed into subsistence agriculture anda non-cash economy. Gold and antimony mines are located in remote mountain areas. The informal sector also plays an important. Most of the informal activities include selfemployment,subsistence farming, unpaid jobs performed by family workers, occasional orcasual jobs, and second jobs. Most of these are in the agricultural sector and have asubsistence nature. The rate of informal employment was estimated at 59% in 2003 andwas amongst the highest of the other Central Asia countries 33 .29 Kyrgyz Republic Poverty Assessment – September 2007, World Bank (Report No. 40864-KG)30 Business Environment in the Kyrgyz Republic – Reforms Underway and the Need for Implementation– World Bank - Government/WB/IMF Workshop, Bishkek, 25 June 200831 World Bank statistics 200732 Kyrgyz Republic Poverty Assessment – September 2007, World Bank (Report No. 40864-KG)33 World Bank 2003, quoted in “Poverty, Livelihood Vulnerability and Food Insecurity in the KyrgyzRepublic – M. Abi Samra, World Food Programme, March 2007” - Unpublished16
Page 1 and 2: SECONDARY DATA REVIEW ON THE FOOD S
Page 3 and 4: Food consumption, nutritional statu
Page 5 and 6: II - Demography and societyDemograp
Page 7 and 8: The country has gone through a diff
Page 9 and 10: for services and 47% for industry).
Page 11 and 12: The national food balance situation
Page 13 and 14: Livestock The livestock sector suff
Page 15 and 16: Energy policies do not seem to cont
Page 17: For the 2007/08 agricultural campai
Page 21 and 22: of its TACIS programme), UNDP, Isla
Page 23 and 24: 4% to 5% were noted. Extreme povert
Page 25 and 26: the poor were twice higher than of
Page 27 and 28: Unemployment rose to 8% in 2005. Ho
Page 29 and 30: Many young Kyrgyz workers find it m
Page 31 and 32: oRemittances contribute significant
Page 33 and 34: largest among the poor irrespective
Page 35 and 36: destination of products purchased i
Page 37 and 38: ooochildren under 16 years (and pup
Page 39 and 40: Nonetheless, the UMB programme rema
Page 41 and 42: The main difference between them ma
Page 43 and 44: At national level, per capita calor
Page 45 and 46: o19% of the population are both poo
Page 47 and 48: There is also a need to set up a re
Page 49 and 50: Initiation (anybreastfeeding)Exclus
Page 51 and 52: health insurance (in 2006) has enab
Page 53 and 54: low in Jalal-Abad, Naryn and Talas
Page 55 and 56: A continuing surge in consumer pric
Page 57 and 58: Overall producer price inflation wa
Page 59 and 60: However, faced with the risk of foo
Page 61 and 62: oofinancing a topping up of unit be
Page 63 and 64: Fuel imports could be reduced by mo

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