Prepared Direct Testimony of Robert McCullough on Behalf of the ...

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Total Southem GenerationMW...................................................................................................................Nameplate Capacity 2698 2679 ................Maximum Generation Obsetwd, 2000-2001.................. ..............................................................................................................% <strong>of</strong> Capacity i % <strong>of</strong> Maximum..................................................Average Generation. May 22,2000..............-July........................................3,2001 1587 i.......................58.8%Average......................................................................................Generation. Stage 1 Emergencies....................... 1732'..........................64.2% ......................./Average.............................................................................................................................................................................Generation, Stage 2 Emergencies 1681 62.3%'Average Generation. Stage 3 Emergencies 1591........................................................59.0%II. .Auerage.................... ........................................................................Average Generation. January 18.2001 ........................ ................................. . .......... ............ .................................................................................................................... ..................... 59.4%'Average Generation. ~ui~'4, 2001 - ~ugustWhat conclusion do you draw from this operating record?31, 2001 1765 65.4% 65.9%lAll five generators, at different plants, in different locations, and facing different environmentalrules all managed to fail to meet peak generation 40% to 50% <strong>of</strong> the time. Given the incentivesavailable for full generation, this is a highly suspicious performance.How likely is it that all <strong>of</strong> these plants were facing outages during all <strong>of</strong> theemergencies?Highly unlikely. A basic tool for evaluating complex questions <strong>of</strong>probability is the Monte Carlomodel. It is straightforward to use such a model to check whether the operation <strong>of</strong> these plantswas consistent with the plant availabilities shown in GADS.What is a Monte Carlo model?Monte Carlo model simulates a large universe <strong>of</strong> different events in order to get a sense <strong>of</strong> theoverall distribution <strong>of</strong> outcomes. For example, in order to see what the probabilities might be ina complex game involving dice, it might be efficient to ask the computer to run thousands <strong>of</strong>different "games" trying a different random set <strong>of</strong> dice throws for each game.
Page 17 <strong>of</strong> 76SEATAC-400Plant availability calculations have <strong>of</strong>ten used a similar approach in order to get a sense <strong>of</strong> thedistribution <strong>of</strong> the availability for a whole portfolio <strong>of</strong> different power plants."For what types <strong>of</strong> problems are "Monte Carlo" studies most <strong>of</strong>ten applied'?Monte Carlo methods are most <strong>of</strong>ten applied to problems that defy simple closed analyticalsolutions, but they are also commonly used to convincingly demonstrate phenomena that may bedifficult for reasonably intelligent people to understand in a rigorous mathematical way. MonteCarlo is also popular in the teaching <strong>of</strong> various kinds <strong>of</strong> mathematics, especially in problemsrelating to probability theory. Generally, Monte Carlo methods involve four in.pdients/steps;first, the statement <strong>of</strong> a real-valued hnction <strong>of</strong> several variables, some <strong>of</strong> them random variables;second, the generation <strong>of</strong> values for all the variables, including many "draws" fmm the randomvariables; third, the calculation <strong>of</strong> the stated function for every set <strong>of</strong> values for the variables; andfourth, a statistical analysis <strong>of</strong> the behavior <strong>of</strong> the set <strong>of</strong> function values.'2How did you apply Monte Carlo methods to answer the question <strong>of</strong> how likely would bethe unavailability <strong>of</strong> 45% <strong>of</strong> the collective generating capacity <strong>of</strong> a particular set <strong>of</strong>power plants on any day?In the instant problem <strong>of</strong> examining the joint availability factor for a set <strong>of</strong> generating plants, theMonte Carlo steps are implemented as follows:First, define the variables and the function <strong>of</strong> interest. In the instant case, the variables are the"Exhibit SEATAC-402 and 407.l2 Tme Monte Carlo methods implement sophisticated strategies for reducing the variance <strong>of</strong> estimatedvalues in simulation studies, e.g., stratified sampling. But in common parlance the term has long since come to referto any simulation study that includes a realistic approach to random phenomena that involves the generation <strong>of</strong>values that can be treated as samples from a random variable.
Page 1 and 2: Page 1 of 76SEATAC
Page 3 and 4: Please identify yourself and give y
Page 5 and 6: summarizes their conclusions as:The
Page 7 and 8: where as last week we were $70.00,
Page 9 and 10: Page 9 of 76SEATAC
Page 11 and 12: Page 1 1 of 76SEAT
Page 13 and 14: 1 Q. How did the individual compani
Page 15: Page 15 of 76SEATA
Page 19 and 20: Page 19 of 76SEATA
Page 27 and 28: ~~Page 27 of 76SEA
Page 29 and 30: over the period of
Page 33 and 34: Page 33 of 76SE.4T
Page 41 and 42: Death StarsThe schedules of
Page 51 and 52: Page 5 1 of 76SEAT
Page 57 and 58: Page 57 of 76SE!AT
Page 59 and 60: Page 59 of 76SElAT
Page 61 and 62: sy~tem.~ This pair of</stro
Page 67 and 68:
Page 67 of 76SEATA
Page 69 and 70:
Page 69 of 76SE:AT
Page 71 and 72:
: ruoy papolmop slep smog aaqqq Lbu
Page 73 and 74:
Page 73 of 76SEATA
Page 75 and 76:
Have you conducted this analysis fo
Page 77:
CERTIFICATE OF SERVICEI hereby cert
show all

Prepared Direct Testimony of Robert McCullough on Behalf of the ...

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?