Prepared Direct Testimony of Robert McCullough on Behalf of the ...

over the period <strong>of</strong> the California crisis. Since we know the changes their generation levels shouldhave made with respect to electric prices, natural gas prices, and NOx prices, we can easilyidentify sudden shifts that can not be explained by these factors. We can expect that major shiftsare unlikely to be explained by a real outage, since this would require multiple units to failsimultaneously.The next chart shows large daily shifts in Reliant generation after changes in market conditionshave been considered.16 For example, a sudden shift in gas prices would normally inducegenerators to reduce output. These changes have been factored into the analysis - as havechanges in other critical prices.Date i ~~~~~~~Generation................ ..................................... ...............1211 1i,271ib60111 112000-1210912000 25/i00.6.! ....................(2.695)bwi11200 006/2.6,2000 , .. . . . . . .(2,097)bi,o.u2diiroiroi,2001. ................... ................ (1,573.......... (1.380) ..........bu2.3 6b;ijo5/2 Ol.mOir' ............................................ (1,105).iij~~j~~o&1lj27/2000I,200&,oi6w ... .................. (1,016)............................. .......- .................... (1,003)12/13/2000-12/12/2000...._ ..!........... '......................... (760)0~2sl2001-05/28/2001............................................................'("8,07115/2000711412000 i................................ (738)..................... (693).................................. (687)"""-. ..................... (678).................... (683)1658)As can be readily seen, Reliant generation <strong>of</strong>ten exhibited large changes that could not beexplained by market conditions. In each case, Reliant's generation reduction was enormously'Bxhibit SEATAC402 and 41 1.