Prepared Direct Testimony of Robert McCullough on Behalf of the ...

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Page 20 <strong>of</strong> 76SEA4TAC-400assumptions <strong>of</strong> your Monte Carlo study, as represented by the plant owners, weretrue?A. The actual total availability on many occasionddays for the real plants in the real world was somuch lower than any occasion in our simulation that the assumptions <strong>of</strong> the simulation must becalled into question. The only relevant assumptions in the simulation were the stated availabilityfactors. The availabilities must be considerably lower than those stated to get any observationsmatching reality at all, let alone with the frequency reported for the relevant historical period.Histogram <strong>of</strong> "Big Five" Generation During Stage 1,2, and 3Emergencies Comparedto Monte Carlo Results Based on GADSPercentaoe <strong>of</strong> Nameplate CapacltyQ. What does the Monte Carlo study show?A. The bell shaped curve to the right shows the distribution <strong>of</strong> plant operations sinlulated by running
Page 21 <strong>of</strong> 76SEATAC-400each <strong>of</strong> the plants ten thousand times. In each iteration the plant is modeled as being available ifthe random number chosen by the computer is less than the availability rate takm from GADS.Contra Costa 6, for example, is available 82.7% <strong>of</strong> the time on average, but it will be placed out<strong>of</strong> service depending on the random number chosen in each game.The blue line is the distribution <strong>of</strong> generation during Stage 3 Emergencies during the Californiacrisis. Ten thousand iterations provide an average availability in the 85% range. Averageavailability <strong>of</strong> the generator's units during Stage 3 Emergencies was a surprisingly low 52.9% <strong>of</strong>nameplate capacity.How did you approach the problem <strong>of</strong> dispatching the units?The first step is to calculate the operating cost for the units for each hour. As opposed to theassumed NOx prices and NOxikWh ratios, we used actual experienced prices and rates.Natural gas prices were taken from actual market data.Each one <strong>of</strong> the units purchased by the five generators from SDG&E (San Diego Gas &Electric), SCE (Southern California Edison), and PG&E (Pacific Gas &Electric) are modeledseparately. We obtained our NOx prices directly from the RECLAIM bulletin board. Whenmonths are missing, we used the average <strong>of</strong> prices for the remainder <strong>of</strong> the cycle since theopportunity cost <strong>of</strong> current use is the loss <strong>of</strong> the RECLAIM credits in later months.
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CERTIFICATE OF SERVICEI hereby cert
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