Patterns of Historical Earthquake Rupture in the Iranian Plateau

Patterns of Historical Earthquake Rupture in the Iranian Plateau 137Other historical earthquakes have not occurred in sequences.These include earthquakes on the Sabzevar reversefault in 1052, the Esfarayen reverse fault in 1695, and anevent on the Damghan fault in 856. The Ipak reverse faultruptured in 1962 with an earthquake of M 7.2. The penultimatehistorical event probably occurred in the third millenniumB.C.The long historical record suggests that the areas of historicalearthquakes are not likely to sustain earthquakes ofM -- 8 where earthquakes rupture segments individuallyrather than several segments at once. Nonetheless, severallong, straight strike-slip faults (Doruneh, Nayband, WestNeh, East Neh, Kahurak) have not sustained historical earthquakesand, by analogy with large earthquakes in Mongoliain the twentieth century, may be capable of earthquakes ofM8.The seismic moment release rate in I_ran accounts foronly a small part of the convergence rate between the Arabianand Eurasian plates. The deficit may be due to aseismicslip, or it may be because the Iranian historical record, longas it is, is not sufficient to sample long-term deformationacross the plateau. To resolve this question for purposes ofseismic hazard assessment, a national program should beestablished to (1) determine the paleoseismological historyof faults that have produced earthquakes, as well as longstrike-slip faults that have not, and (2) establish a GPS network,including permanent stations around major metropolitanareas, to monitor the present-day strain accumulationacross the Iranian plateau.AcknowledgmentsThis article was first presented in September 1994, at the Marshall, California,workshop on paleoseismology sponsored by the Inter-Union Commissionon the Lithosphere (ICL) and the U.S. Geological Survey, withadditional support from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. M.B.thanks UNESCO, Paris, especially Badauoi Rouhban, and the InternationalInstitute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), especiallyMohsen Ghafuri-Ashtiani, Tehran, for support for his work published asBerberian (1995b), as well as Manuchehr Qorashi and other colleaguesthe Geological Survey of Iran for valuable discussions. Many of the fieldinvestigations were carried out while M.B. was working for the GeologicalSurvey of Iran. M.B. acknowledges travel support from ICL, GeologicalSurvey of Iran, and IIEES to investigate surface rupture on the Abiz faultas a result of the 1997 earthquake of Ms 7.3. R.S.Y. received support fromNational Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program Grant 1434-94-G-SC5090 from the U.S. Geological Survey. We thank James A. 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