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Case study:SEA of the Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM), Portugal — example of an ecosystemservices approachEcosystem services can be integrated into SEA without the need for extensive technical exercises. An ecosystemservices approach is also a useful tool to enable the strategic consideration of biodiversity which would otherwisebe difficult in very high level plans.The SEA did not conduct a detailed analysis and assessment of existing ecosystems and services in the Portuguesecoastal zone. Rather, it identified and compared policy options in terms of their risk or benefit to strategic levelecosystem services that were identified through consultation with key policy stakeholders. This required aconsideration of strategic ecosystem services that could be affected by policy choices relevant to ICZM: e.g. themanagement of natural coastal dynamics, especially in vulnerable zones; the maintenance of the productivity ofcoastal zones; the maintenance and conservation of the availability of natural and cultural heritage andbiodiversity.Source: Including ecosystem services in coastal management by using SEA, Portugal (Partidário M.R., 2011)5.5 Assess climate change and biodiversity cumulative effectsCumulative effects — or the combined impact of any number of different effects — are particularlyimportant for climate change and biodiversity. As shown in Section 2, climate change andbiodiversity are complex issues with long-term impacts and consequences for PPs. This means thatunderstanding and assessing the cumulative effects is critical.There are a number of tips and approaches to assessing the cumulative effects of climate changeand biodiversity in SEAs.• Recognise cumulative effects as early as possible in the SEA process, if possible in the scopingstage. Talking to the right stakeholders as early as possible can give you a broader overview,which helps you better understand how seemingly insignificant individual effects can havegreater consequences when considered together.• Pay attention to the evolving baseline when assessing the cumulative effects of climate changeand biodiversity impacts. The current state of the environment will not necessarily be the futurestate of the environment, even if the proposed PP does not go ahead. Both the climate and thespecies that make up the natural world are in a constant state of flux.• Distinguish between magnitude and significance and use significance criteria. A highmagnitude impact may not be significant if the species affected is common, widely distributedand readily able to recover, but even a small magnitude impact may be very significant to ahighly sensitive or rare species or habitat. Significance criteria can be policy and guidancedocuments, such as: biodiversity strategies; biodiversity action plans for habitats and species;international, national and local designations (e.g. conservation objectives of Natura 2000 sites);legislation and/or using an ecosystems approach by identifying the valued ecosystem servicesand how they will be affected by drivers of change over time.• Gain an understanding of other PPs and projects. Identify relevant PPs and take them intoaccount when assessing cumulative effects.46 <strong>Guidance</strong> on integrating climate change and biodiversity into SEA
• Where possible, use causal chains or network analysis (see box below) to understand theinteractions and associated cumulative effects between specific elements of the PP and aspectsof the environment. The point is not to be comprehensive, but to understand what might be themost significant cumulative effects. These may often be best identified through discussions withstakeholders who can help work through potential pathways in causal chains.Case study:SEA of the Strategy for Wild Deer in Scotland, the United Kingdom — example of the use of networkanalysisThe Strategy sought to provide a long term vision for the effective management of wild deer in Scotland. SEA used anetwork analysis. It is an effective approach for considering complex long-term issues.SEA explored a suite of alternative approaches to managing wild deer. Each one could enable the Strategy torespond to future changes and unexpected or unforeseen events. The network diagram was based on therelationships between the:• driver: as identified via brainstorming with stakeholders;• factors of change: the possible broader impacts of the driver;• sub-influence: impacts specific to the strategy due to the factors of change (and ultimately the driver);• management approach: what alternatives are available for the strategy to adapt and respond to the subinfluences;and,• impacts: what are the likely final impacts on the ground in relation to the Strategy.Source: Deer Commission for Scotland relevant webpage5.5.1 Trend analysisSEA practitioners may find it useful to use a trend analysis(see box right), not only to analyse the baseline, but alsoto assess the cumulative effects of multiple actionsproposed in the PP on the relevant environmental andclimate change issues. This approach allows you to identifythe potential changes to the baseline trends likely to becaused by the proposed PP.A trend analysis can be defined as an interpretation ofchange over time with and without the proposed PP. It canhelp to describe past trends and the current situation bytracing any trends or patterns in the relevant territories intime periods covered by the PP. It can also help youpredict future baseline trends without the PP, based oninformation about the changes in their future drivers. 30Lastly, a trend analysis can be helpful when assessing thecumulative effects of proposed developments in the PP onthe identified future baseline trends. Its benefit is that itcan combine many different tools and has the capacity toanalyse cause-effect relationships even in situationsconstrained by significant data gaps.Trend analysisTrends can be presented through:• Storylines that describe the overalltrends, their main drivers,territorial dimensions and keyconcerns and opportunities arisingfrom these trends;• Maps showing spatial developmentpatterns;• Graphs: from simple graphs thatuse available data sets to illustrateevolution of key issues and/or theirdrivers over time to complexgraphs that provide comprehensiveoverview of correlation betweenevolution of drivers overtime andthe corresponding (sometimedelayed) changes in the issuesaddressed by the analysis.Source: Presentation at the Conferenceof Regions for Sustainable Changeproject, INTERREG IVC (Dusik J., 2011)30 Oversimplified extrapolation that does not consider how the trend will evolve once it reaches a key breaking point (e.g. when thecarrying capacity of the surrounding environment has been reached or exceeded), or once the counter-trends reverse the trend, andtherefore may be misleading.<strong>Guidance</strong> on integrating climate change and biodiversity into SEA 47
Page 1 and 2: Guidance on Integr
Page 3: ForewordThe need for action on clim
Page 6 and 7: GlossaryTermAdaptation(climate chan
Page 8 and 9: Mitigation (climatechange)Mitigatio
Page 10: HOW TO ADDRESS BOTH CLIMATE CHANGE
Page 13 and 14: guidance.Since it is the first such
Page 15 and 16: 2. Climate change and biodiversity
Page 17 and 18: 2.2.3 Resilience of a PP to a chang
Page 19 and 20: 2.3.2 Complexity of the issues and
Page 21 and 22: 3. Understanding climate change and
Page 23 and 24: EU Climate and EnergyPackageRoadmap
Page 25 and 26: • Under Article 6(3) of the Habit
Page 27 and 28: Table 5: Key aspects of biodiversit
Page 29 and 30: single biggest cause of biodiversit
Page 31 and 32: Engaging proactively with environme
Page 33 and 34: For climate change, in particular,
Page 35 and 36: 4.3 Identifying the key biodiversit
Page 37 and 38: 5. How to assess effects related to
Page 39 and 40: 5.2 Consider climate change scenari
Page 41 and 42: • Key areas that may be particula
Page 43 and 44: • aim for ‘no-net-loss’ of bi
Page 45: Flood regimes and extremerainfall e
Page 49 and 50: This guidance document emphasises t
Page 51 and 52: Annex 1: Further readingThe policy
Page 53 and 54: Resource Paper: No Net Loss and Los
Page 55 and 56: Resource Manual to Support Applicat
Page 57 and 58: Annex 2: Sources of information on
Page 59 and 60: EmDATERA-NET ROAD —Coordination a
Page 61 and 62: GeneralData and Maps (EEA)EUROSTATE
Page 63 and 64: factorsEcosystembasedapproachesEcos
Page 65 and 66: to your PP area. Greenhouse Gas Imp
Page 67 and 68: stage, but may be extended intothe
Page 69 and 70: enefits for all; Political: discuss

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