Socio Economic - Transnet

Based on the population size over the past years, the population growth rate of the Msukaligwa LMwas calculated to be 1.8% per annum. This is slightly lower than the Mkhondo LM but higher than theAlbert Luthuli LM has seen a decline in population size.This pattern revealed is mostly the same for both the province and the district. It should be noted thatthe growth in the five year period between 1996 and 2001 was the almost the same as for the periodbetween 2001 and 2011, indicating a slightly slower growth over the past few years. From 2001 to2008 the municipality’s growth rate has declined rapidly from about 4% to -2%. This decline is acharacteristic of modern rural municipalities in South Africa. This can show to large majorities ofpeople migrating to other areas in search of employment opportunities. However, since 2009 thegrowth rate has improved and in 2011 was calculated at about 1.8%.3.2.4 Future expected growthPopulation and household growth is one element that determines the long-term demand for goodsand services. Based on historical population figures from 2000 to 2011, a trend analysis was done forthe municipality. The trend analysis is based on historical data. This data was used to determine themunicipal growth rate and extrapolate the figures to give a projected growth for the municipality up to2025.Table 4: Municipal demographic projections2001 2011 2015 2020 2025Population 124,829 149,378 160,351 175,206 191,439Households 29,689 40,931 46,865 55,506 65,740HH size 4.2 3.6 3.4 3.2 2.9Average Pop Growth Rate (last 12 years) 1.8%Average HH Growth Rate (last 12 years) -0.09%Figure 3 indicates the forecasted population growth graphically, compared to the expected growth oftwo neighbouring LMs.250 000200 000150 000100 00050 000Forecasted Population Growth0201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025MP301: Albert Luthuli MP302: Msukaligwa MP303: MkhondoFigure 3: Forecasted population growthIn terms of the projected population growth the following should be noted:• The growth rate was calculated at 1.8%.• This is similar to other rural municipalities in the country.5 July 2013 Page 10