選舉事件與選民的投票抉擇： 以台灣2004 年總統選舉為 ... - 東吳大學

160 東 吳 政 治 學 報 /2006/ 第 二 十 二 期campaign incidents did not actually have a significant relationship with voterchoices when controlling for other factors. In fact, voters’ understanding andevaluation of negative campaign incidents were influenced by many otherintervening factors, especially party-identification, ethnic-identification, andnational-identification. Those who identify themselves as Pan-Blues, Chinese,and supporters of unification saw themselves as influenced by negative incidentsinvolving President Chen. At the same time, those who identify themselves asPan-Greens, Taiwanese, and supporters of Taiwan independence saw themselvesas influenced by negative incidents involving Lian Chan. This study confirmsthe traditional view in election studies that when candidates have equal access tothe media, the original positions of opposite sides of the electorate arestrengthened by the campaign process, rather than being influenced in such a waythat they switch to the other side.Key words: negative campaigning, shocking event, voter choice, the 2004presidential election in Taiwan